NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Keystone Phil]

the GOP is still hated, most Republican Governors are still hated etc. This all with a an unpopular Democratic President. In otherwords, you guys have managed to cock it up frequently even with a great situation being served up to you on a silver platter. Once a President Perry or Romney is in office, the winds will shift hard.

So...your point is that Perry or Romney wouldn't win...then say that once they do win, they'll suffer. Got it. People still take you seriously around here?

[Sam Spade]

PPP stated in their poll that Democrats were not turning out in NV-2. Presidential year turn out will be different.

Why is it so hard for logic to get through to some people?

Oh, turnout will always be different (and much more predictable) come election time.

However, their poll in NV-2 was a mile off, so I wouldn't be reading too much into it.

[Sam Spade]

I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

Is he an ahole?

I've never liked him, personally, but it was not a good showing.

I know that Lunar can back me up - he saw this too.

[Napoleon]

A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?

Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.

[Torie]

I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.

No one has been foolish enough to make that claim yet. Calm down. The Presidency is still very much in play.

[J. J.]

Turner closed a bit in Queens.

[DrScholl]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

[Sbane]

Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

Apparently Politico doesn't know where North Las Vegas is. If the district actually did contain North Las Vegas, and these were the results, it would be big, big trouble (like the Dems getting under 40% nationally). In other news, Marshall is losing Washoe by 10 points, and by extension the Democrats the state.

[Wonkish1]

Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

[Wonkish1]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?

Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.

Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

the GOP is still hated, most Republican Governors are still hated etc. This all with a an unpopular Democratic President. In otherwords, you guys have managed to cock it up frequently even with a great situation being served up to you on a silver platter. Once a President Perry or Romney is in office, the winds will shift hard.

So...your point is that Perry or Romney wouldn't win...then say that once they do win, they'll suffer. Got it. People still take you seriously around here?

You're being willfully obtuse and aren't even responding to my main arguments. Welcome to the Ignore list where you belong!

[Torie]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

Yes, this gay marriage thing was way overblown due to one of our posters who really cares about that issue. Sure it may have cost Welprin a couple of points. I think the Jews in NYC in this CD are more concerned about other Obama policies (think Middle East, Muslims, etc.), along with the economy like everyone else.

[Wonkish1]

A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?

Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.

Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

[Sbane]

Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about. Also look at the result out of Carson City. That's where you should be looking, where the people in the district actually live.

[DrScholl]

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

You can leave the cursing out if you are posting to me, thank you very much. There are lots of conservative, religious Democrats all over the district, they are the ones who showed up. The district trended Republican last time around and it's not exactly a bellwether for anything. I don't think you should use it to predict presidential results.

[Torie]

Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?

[Sbane]

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

You can leave the cursing out if you are posting to me, thank you very much. There are lots of conservative, religious Democrats all over the district, they are the ones who showed up. The district trended Republican last time around and it's not exactly a bellwether for anything. I don't think you should use it to predict presidential results.

Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.

[Wonkish1]

Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about. Also look at the result out of Carson City. That's where you should be looking, where the people in the district actually live.

No it wasn't.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

Apparently Politico doesn't know where North Las Vegas is. If the district actually did contain North Las Vegas, and these were the results, it would be big, big trouble (like the Dems getting under 40% nationally). In other news, Marshall is losing Washoe by 10 points, and by extension the Democrats the state.

lol, North Las Vegas.

Politico needs to get a clue.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Clark County portion of NV-2 voted for Obama by 54.8% to 43.5% and is the part of Clark County that shifted hardest towards Obama from Kerry due the housing bubble collapsing and in reality is much weaker for the Democrats than those numbers suggest.

[NY Jew]

Heavy Jewish turnout according to Fox.

marriage protest vote

[Napoleon]

A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?

Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.

Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

D+5 isn't particularly safe especially given this district's obvious trends.

[Sbane]

Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?

Just look here. The district contains rural areas, Nellis AFB, and some rich looking suburbia to the south of town.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd

[DrScholl]

Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.

That is your opinion. I just don't think you should take a special election for a House seat and turn it into a narrative about the Presidential election, it doesn't work when either side does it. You can't expect everyone to subscribe to the same opinion.