The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[HagridOfTheDeep]

1012 adults polled:

42-51 disapprove

162 non-registered adults polled:

47-42 approve

850 registered voters polled:

41-54 disapprove

...

The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with a national random sample of 1,012 adults age 18 and older from July 25 to 30, 2013. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.1 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.

https://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/466195b6-6a33-4589-97d9-f3e6b7d95521.pdf

Could it be that voters are finally realizing Obama has no second-term agenda? If so, it's about nine months too late.

[/hack]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

1012 adults polled:

42-51 disapprove

162 non-registered adults polled:

47-42 approve

850 registered voters polled:

41-54 disapprove

...

The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with a national random sample of 1,012 adults age 18 and older from July 25 to 30, 2013. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.1 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.

https://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/466195b6-6a33-4589-97d9-f3e6b7d95521.pdf

Could it be that voters are finally realizing Obama has no second-term agenda? If so, it's about nine months too late.

[/hack]

It's better than Romney's first-term agenda, which would have been actively damaging.

[/hack]

Well, more actively damaging than Obama's non-agenda and occasional forays into other people's awful agendas are.

[/admitting uncomfortable truths about my party's president]

[Lief 🗽]

1012 adults polled:

42-51 disapprove

162 non-registered adults polled:

47-42 approve

850 registered voters polled:

41-54 disapprove

...

The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with a national random sample of 1,012 adults age 18 and older from July 25 to 30, 2013. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.1 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.

https://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/466195b6-6a33-4589-97d9-f3e6b7d95521.pdf

Could it be that voters are finally realizing Obama has no second-term agenda? If so, it's about nine months too late.

[/hack]

He does have a second term agenda? Some of it's already been passed by the Senate. Once the teabaggers in the House are interested in actually governing, then they're free to help him pass it. Until then, there's not much he can do.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Obama ship has been holding steady despite severe unchill waves in the traditionally stormy summer. I don't know what y'all are talking about.

[pbrower2a]

The Obama ship has been holding steady despite severe unchill waves in the traditionally stormy summer. I don't know what y'all are talking about.

So House Of Representatives has done nothing other than give the President offers that he must refuse. Those are indeed choppy waters.

[jaichind]

The RCP average for Obama approval/disapproval is now at 43.9/50.6.  This is pretty close to the worst result for Obama since he became POTUS.   Back in Fall of 2010 before the rout of 2010 the RCP average was mostly around 45.5/49.5.

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas, with a pollster that I don't know. We have been getting few Presidential polls involving Arkansas.

Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas, as a poll suggests for Hillary Clinton. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  The state has not really changed since 2008 in that respect.

It certainly was never Barack Obama:

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That is in the same range with last week's PPP poll in Georgia, a state fairly similar to Arkansas in its political history and voting habits.  that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama). I doubt that the President's approval has 'dived' in Arkansas; it has probably always been poor, and it was probably awful in November 2012 with an electoral result that hideous for an incumbent President.  That's about as badly as Walter Mondale did in Arkansas in 1984 in the 49-state near-sweep by Ronald Reagan.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%

[pbrower2a]

Siena, New York State -- Obama approval 56%, disapproval 41%. Yawn! No new map.

[pbrower2a]

August 8-11, 2013
Survey of 600 North Carolina voters

North Carolina Survey Results (PPP)

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_813.pdf

If he were running for re-election he would have a reasonably chance in North Carolina. 44% approval is the break-even point for an incumbent seeking re-election before the campaign season begins. 

[pbrower2a]

Survey of 721 Louisiana voters
August 16-19, 2013



Louisiana Survey Results (PPP)


Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

41% Approve

52% Disapprove

7%  Not sure

Not sure

Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

39%  Barack Obama

55%  Mitt Romney

5%    Someone else/Don't remember

It was a 40-57 split in 2012.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_082013.pdf

The President isn't hurting Senator Mary Landrieu in her bid for re-election.

[pbrower2a]

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(It was 50-47 Obama in 2012).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_820.pdf

Not bad for not campaigning in a definitive swing state. He would win Ohio if he were running for re-election (as if that matters now, for obvious reasons. He seems to not be hurting the chances of any Democrat.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac

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Not bad for not campaigning in a definitive swing state. He would win Ohio Virginia if he were running for re-election (as if that matters now, for obvious reasons). He seems to not be hurting the chances of any Democrat.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1940

Hillary Clinton projects as the Democratic nominee to win about everything that Obama won in 2008 except perhaps Indiana (paucity of polling and no obvious parallels) and to largely close some of the huge gaps by which President Obama lost in 2008 and 2012 in the Mountain South.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Maine Survey Results (PPP)

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

49% Approve

44% Disapprove

7% Not sure

For an elected official not actively campaigning for re-election, good enough to win. Of course the 22nd Amendment applies here and in all other 49 states.

Q10
In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

54% Barack Obama

38% Mitt Romney

8% Someone else/Don't remember

Which explains why elected officials must campaign to get re-elected.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_827.pdf

Congressional districts #1 and #2 not distinguished.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why is Obama performing so poorly in the Reuters/Ipsos poll? He's roughly even in all the other polls, even Rasmussen, but he's getting demolished by Reuters.

[pbrower2a]

Other notes from New Hampshire:

-Barack Obama's approval rating has dropped a net 10 points in the state compared to April, from +6 then at 52/46 to -4 now at 46/50. His decline with independents- from 52/46 to 44/50- pretty well mirrors the overall shift.
- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/shaheen-hassan-lead-for-reelection.html#more


Barack Obama's approval rating in the state has slipped a little bit over the course of the year. In February he was on slightly positive ground at 50/48, now he's in slightly negative territory at 47/49. Much of his fall has come with Democrats- he was at 93/6 with them over the winter, but that's slipped now to 83/14. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/mixed-news-for-walker.html#more

Could be taking some heat on Syrian chemicals.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/shaheen-hassan-lead-for-reelection.html#more

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1954

Comment: People like certainty and loathe flux in foreign policy. This can improve for the President of the United States. 

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_924.pdf

The Houston Astros are having a better year in baseball than the President is having in West Virginia.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)


Survey of 616 Massachusetts voters

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MA_924.pdf

OK. Nothing new.

[pbrower2a]

Kean, New Jersey:

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60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Florida:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_FL_1001.pdf

If President were running for re-election he would likely win Florida. 44% approval is the usual divide for a Governor or Senator having a 50% chance of winning re-election, and it reasonably fits a President too. The sample is representative because Florida was basically 50-50 in 2012.

No change in the map:


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Autumn has barely started, yet the winter of (political) discontent is well underway in Iowa.

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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20131003/NEWS/310040053/Iowa-Poll-68-of-Iowans-believe-the-country-is-headed-in-the-wrong-direction?Frontpage&nclick_check=1

President Obama won Iowa by nearly 10% in 2008.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Harper and PPP, Virginia:

Obama -- 45% approve, 49% disapprove

http://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/07/virginiapoll100713.html

Associated with a gubernatorial election.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Georgia (SurveyUSA)

44% approve
52% disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9655d416-12e7-4b6a-9606-0c1665cc58a5

[pbrower2a]

Georgia (SurveyUSA)

44% approve
52% disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9655d416-12e7-4b6a-9606-0c1665cc58a5

Interesting crosstabs. Barack Obama has positive ratings among people under 50. President Obama has a more positive rating (it is still poor in Georgia at 44-52) but better than "Democrats in Congress" (39-52) which is more favorable than "Republicans in Congress" (22-67). People on the whole are unhappy with nearly all aspects of government in Georgia, and some strange things could happen to some political careers of incumbent Representatives from the Georgia delegation to the US House of Representatives if attitudes remain the same between now and thirteen months from now.

A Democratic presidential nominee less polarizing than Barack Obama could win the State in 2016.


Based on this Survey USA poll, Georgia goes at the least to the fringe of contention in 2016 as it was in 2008.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

President Obama is extremely and unambiguously unpopular in Arkansas.

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- See more at: http://talkbusiness.net/2013/10/poll-pryor-cotton-in-tight-race-already/#sthash.NSiRfGj0.dpuf


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/14/louisiana.html

A caveat:

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*Karl Rove's group, so take it with a boulder of salt. I'm not using it.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]