Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[henster]

I think everyone can agree with me that Rob McCord is a much better candidate than Allyson Schwartz.

[IceSpear]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

Ok, maybe you're still not getting the difference a) between starting an abortion clinic and possibly recommending women to Kermit Gosnell and voting against a partial birth ban and b) the importance of abortion in state elections compared to Presidential elections. And no one said Obama's State Senate vote on that or any other issue was going to trigger a landslide loss for him. Tone down the hyperbole and stop comparing apples and oranges.

That's the thing, only single issue voter pro-life zealots care if someone started an abortion clinic. None of those people were voting Democrat to begin with. As for the Kermit Gosnell thing, it's merely speculation. But even if it does turn out to be true, how exactly is that Schwartz's fault? If you saw your PCP and they referred you to an oncologist who was secretly insane and murdered you during one of your examinations, would you blame your PCP for that?

[Keystone Phil]

Eh, I think some swing voters would have an issue with it. It will be seen as being far more than just vocally Pro Choice. And this is a state with many Pro Life Dems. Please don't think it would be a non-issue.

Also, if she has nothing to fear with Gosnell, she would have answered one way or the other on it, right? Well, she refuses to answer. And again, please stop with these idiotic comparisons. It's nothing like an oncologists "being secretly insane and murdering" a patient. There had been numerous complaints about Gosnell over the years.

[windjammer]

With Corbett's anti gay comments, and with Schwartz the hard pro-choice, Social-centrist PA voters will love this election...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

With Corbett's anti gay comments, and with Schwartz the hard pro-choice, Social-centrist PA voters will love this election...

Indeed. What an election to be a moderate hero.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett approval up to 36% in latest Quinnipiac poll. Trails all Dems except Hanger. Trails Schwartz by eight and McCord by three.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991

Corbett also announced his support for legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

[henster]

Likely D this guy is a dead man walking he will not be re-elected.

[IceSpear]

Corbett approval up to 36% in latest Quinnipiac poll. Trails all Dems except Hanger. Trails Schwartz by eight and McCord by three.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991

Corbett also announced his support for legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

Why would he lead Hanger but trail everyone else? Odd.

[Keystone Phil]

Hanger is unknown and probably the furthest left of the bunch. It makes plenty of sense.

[windjammer]

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Well, it will be difficult to be reelected, but not impossible.

[pbrower2a]

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Well, it will be difficult to be reelected, but not impossible.

Corbett could win a rigged election!

Otherwise, forget it.

[IceSpear]

Hanger is unknown and probably the furthest left of the bunch. It makes plenty of sense.

McGinty and Wolf are also unknown. I doubt enough people are paying attention to unknown Democratic primary candidate ideologies to account for a 12 point difference.

[Keystone Phil]

McGinty probably benefits as a female candidate and Wolf might already be spending some of his millions with minor advertising. While I totally agree that it's way too early for the general public to know about these lesser known candidates' ideologies, you'll have to at least concede that Hanger must be lesser known than McGinty and Wolf. "Corbett can't possibly be leading any opponent. The poll must be flawed" isn't a good argument.

[IceSpear]

McGinty probably benefits as a female candidate and Wolf might already be spending some of his millions with minor advertising. While I totally agree that it's way too early for the general public to know about these lesser known candidates' ideologies, you'll have to at least concede that Hanger must be lesser known than McGinty and Wolf. "Corbett can't possibly be leading any opponent. The poll must be flawed" isn't a good argument.

This is from the latest PPP poll which shows their name recognition:

Wolf:
Favorable 9%
Unfavorable 16%
Not sure 75%

Hanger:
Favorable 9%
Unfavorable 17%
Not sure 74%

[Keystone Phil]

Ok so aside from saying they're equally unknown, I don't get your point. Are you arguing that the poll must be flawed because you don't like that Corbett is leading anyone or what?

[IceSpear]

Ok so aside from saying they're equally unknown, I don't get your point. Are you arguing that the poll must be flawed because you don't like that Corbett is leading anyone or what?

My point is how it makes no sense that one unknown performs 12 points better than another unknown. That's the kind of difference you'd expect from a strong candidate vs. an unknown, or an unknown vs. a particularly weak/scandal plagued candidate. I couldn't care less if Corbett is leading him since he won't be the nominee anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

It makes no sense, in your opinion, so...what? The poll is wrong?

[IceSpear]

It makes no sense, in your opinion, so...what? The poll is wrong?

It makes no sense to anyone with more than two brain cells. You have yet to explain how it's possible that people with virtually identical name recognition and favorability ratings could perform at such drastically different levels against the same opponent.

And no, I'm not saying the poll is wrong. Just that that particular data point is out of place. If Corbett is really leading Hanger by 5 you'd expect his margin against the other unknowns to be relatively similar, not a 12 point difference. Or vice versa if Wolf is really leading Corbett by 7.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually, there's a perfect explanation for it: people that know Hanger don't like his views. Now I conceded the point that Hanger or anyone outside of Schwartz probably doesn't have a known ideology amongst the general electorate but there is an explanation for why Hanger would poll worse against Corbett. Work those three brain cells that you have a little harder.

[Morning in Atlas]

I mean, I'll reserve my judgment because I'm a big Hanger supporter, but I don't think that the issue of energy and his general liberalism would give him that much of a disadvantage compared to everyone else.

But who knows. This all might be wishful thinking.

[IceSpear]

Actually, there's a perfect explanation for it: people that know Hanger don't like his views. Now I conceded the point that Hanger or anyone outside of Schwartz probably doesn't have a known ideology amongst the general electorate but there is an explanation for why Hanger would poll worse against Corbett. Work those three brain cells that you have a little harder.

Again, their favorability ratings are virtually identical, as I posted above.

Funnily enough, in PPP's poll, Wolf does 7 points worse than Hanger. In Quinnipiac's poll Wolf does 12 points better than Hanger, a 19 point difference. Clearly one or both of these polls are way off.

[Morning in Atlas]

State Senator Mike Waugh (R-York) is resigning. Special election coming soon.

obligatory D+1 post

[Miles]

Halvorsen raises less than $9k this quarter for PA-09.

Quote of the day:

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[henster]

Who is Tom Wolf? He just raised 13.27 million for Governor!

[Morning in Atlas]

Who is Tom Wolf? He just raised 13.27 million for Governor!

Businessman from York County, former secretary of the Department of Revenue. Rich as hell ~ $10 million of that is self-funded.

Seen him speak. Fairly dry, seems out of touch.