Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[patrick1]

^I haven't seen anyone suggest that we send in ground troops. If Qaddafi's forces tried to make a massive movement of armored assets they would be annihilated from the air.

Easier said than done, and it wouldn't have to be a mass movement.

Looks like the French Air Force had a fairly easy job of it.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/4/iK4XCLc9O18

[GMantis]

The most likely scenario seems to be akin to Iraq in the 90s.  Qaddafi still in power but ability to massacre rebellious regions checked.  As we know that's not competely stable.

That would happen if the coalition was only attacking his air defenses. Which is most certainly not what it's doing.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The most likely scenario seems to be akin to Iraq in the 90s.  Qaddafi still in power but ability to massacre rebellious regions checked.  As we know that's not competely stable.

After 1991 Saddam couldn't do anything about Kurds due to no-fly zones.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just found out the Danish parliament voted unanimously to send aircraft to enforce the zone which I find kind of interesting. I figured the Red-Green Alliance at least would've voted against.

[J. J.]

^I haven't seen anyone suggest that we send in ground troops. If Qaddafi's forces tried to make a massive movement of armored assets they would be annihilated from the air.

Easier said than done, and it wouldn't have to be a mass movement.

Looks like the French Air Force had a fairly easy job of it.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/4/iK4XCLc9O18

One tank, 979 operational.  1-2 SP guns, 448-9 operational.  36 hours of attacks.  Not a good ratio.

[patrick1]

^I haven't seen anyone suggest that we send in ground troops. If Qaddafi's forces tried to make a massive movement of armored assets they would be annihilated from the air.

Easier said than done, and it wouldn't have to be a mass movement.

Looks like the French Air Force had a fairly easy job of it.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/4/iK4XCLc9O18

One tank, 979 operational.  1-2 SP guns, 448-9 operational.  36 hours of attacks.  Not a good ratio.

JJ, please.  If they bring their forces out in the open and the coalition has the will, they will be wiped out piecemeal. If we want to destroy their military it would only be a matter of how long.  It is true that you can't hold any ground with air power, but you can knock out assets that aren't hidden, buried or put among civilians.

[RBH]

When it comes to moving west. Once Ajdabiya is secure (or at least the bypass), then the rebels can move back into Brega and Ras Lanuf within days (both cities seem to be very quiet after Gaddafi took them). And if that lures more valuable Gaddafi forces out of Sirte to get flattened by France, then all the better.

The strikes around Sabha could reduce the ability to move through Fezzan to reinforce the middle.

It would not stun me if Fezzan/SW Libya is the last holdout for the Gaddafi forces.

Also reading rumors that the Gaddafi leadership is operating out of Sabha instead of Tripoli. Which would make a lot of sense. For one thing, Gaddafi has not been seen since last Tuesday. He has had 3 speeches via radio since then. 2 of the speeches occurred when his media was showing demonstrators at his compound. So if they could film demonstrators, but Gaddafi was not filmed, he must be somewhere else.

Gaddafi is not a legitimate leader in any sense of the word and it's a matter of time before the deadenders and mercs are defeated.

[J. J.]

^I haven't seen anyone suggest that we send in ground troops. If Qaddafi's forces tried to make a massive movement of armored assets they would be annihilated from the air.

Easier said than done, and it wouldn't have to be a mass movement.

Looks like the French Air Force had a fairly easy job of it.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/4/iK4XCLc9O18

One tank, 979 operational.  1-2 SP guns, 448-9 operational.  36 hours of attacks.  Not a good ratio.

JJ, please.  If they bring their forces out in the open and the coalition has the will, they will be wiped out piecemeal. If we want to destroy their military it would only be a matter of how long.  It is true that you can't hold any ground with air power, but you can knock out assets that aren't hidden, buried or put among civilians.

Not with what the coalition has and not in enough numbers to stop them.  Sure in 1991, the US destroyed a large number of Saddam's tanks, with more aircraft and a longer period of time.  Sure, the coalition could take out the tanks in months, but by that time, Qaddafi is sipping tea in Benghazi.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

J.J., for all your gloom and doom here, the fact is that air power has forced Gadaffi to go largely on the defensive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm reading that Gadaffi has lost 14 tanks, not one.

[King]

I'm reading that Gadaffi has lost 14 tanks, not one.

J.J. just forgot to factor in the deluge after the first tank that took out an additional thirteen.

[Gustaf]

There are reports that an American plane crashed in Libya, due to some technical problem (it wasn't shot down).

[Silent Hunter]

There are reports that an American plane crashed in Libya, due to some technical problem (it wasn't shot down).

Yes, an F-15E Strike Eagle. Both pilots appear to be safe and in rebel hands.

[J. J.]

J.J., for all your gloom and doom here, the fact is that air power has forced Gadaffi to go largely on the defensive.

Actually neither is correct.  Qaddafi is not on the defensive, and it isn't a question of gloom and doom.

As for the tanks, the video showed one, and 1-2 SP guns.

There is no question that the coalition can (and has) shut down Libyan air operations (and the F-16 seems to have gone down due to a mechanical problem).  It can stop any major sea operations.  The coalition can slow ground forces via air power; it can weaken ground forces via air power.  It cannot stop ground forces via air power.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Libyan regime announces Sabah's been bombed.

So far Air Forces have to attack any Gaddafi's position that threaten civilian areas, the French joint staff said that in that sense, besides 4 tanks on Saturday it only had to strike one tank yesterday.

A nasty guerilla seems to happen in Misrata which is still in hands of rebel forces. Air force can do nothing against forces already in the city, but if we are solid with the fact to defend civilian areas from military moves that would threaten them, then at least it would prevent Gaddafi forces to carry new forces in any city.

That being said, some French reporters who were in Zenten (west, rather strategical geographically), hold by rebel forces, made a video report showing the siege of this city by Gaddafi's army.

Rebel forces from Benghazi are at 3 kms from Ajdabiya, still defended by Gaddadi forces, but some reports say that a part of the soldiers that were there would have fled. They still ask for weapons.

About the command of the coalition, it really seems to turn messy. US pushing for NATO, Italy also saying it could stop to allow those bases if NATO didn't take the command of it, Norway suspending its participation to a better knowing of NATO role. Hey darlings, you were all in Paris, and France had been clear on the absence of NATO since the beginning, not sure messing in the middle of a military intervention is smart.

Well, anyhow, the Charles de Gaulle arrived there today and begun to enter into operations. Our Solenzara Air Force base is making grow its capacities too, UK has its base in Cyprus. Qatar, with which France has big defense cooperations, would have decided to send its jets in Greece bases today.

Hopefully NATO will stay the most out possible and such an operation could also become the 1st very concrete step of a bigger military cooperation between France and UK who had already sign a big and ambitious agreement on a bigger defense cooperation in the future (notably on nuclear force and big boats), something which could be the 1st step toward a future European force, then making EU having a significant force independent from NATO, then form US (that being said that NATO question seems to make debates in UK, not at all in France amongst those who support the operation, which are a very big majority). Though EU has really been messy here (as usual when it's more about politics than economy?).

Oh and, about Egypt, it made known its official position 2 days ago, saying that it didn't want to participate because of its home situation, and especially because it has 1.5 millions of Egyptians in Libya. So much very understandable things, it's not that it doesn't care. Reporters in Egypt say there has been a very big support to Libyan revolution with several demonstrations there and that Egyptians would also support a foreign military intervention there globally, but in the same time a significant number of them can't help having the very bad memory of Iraq in the mind (I hope this Libyan operation will in the end show that it's not because some western forces intervene somewhere that it means bloody imperialism, may it works). And lol at thinking Mubarak would have done something.

Also, about all the pessimism here about the abilities of Libyans doing something alone, they might need more weapons, maybe, but, well, there is a lot of impatience, bombings have only begun a very few days ago, both rebel forces and Gaddafi forces are in a totally new position now, a new scheme is taking place at both strategical and psychological levels, things on't change in a matter of hours.

[opebo]

Gaddafi is not a legitimate leader in any sense of the word and it's a matter of time before the deadenders and mercs are defeated.

How is Gaddafi not a 'legitimate' leader?  He's been in power over 40 years, husbanded his country to great prosperity, and is supported by a large number of Libyans.  He is certainly more legitimate than the clients of France, UK, and America.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

J.J., for all your gloom and doom here, the fact is that air power has forced Gadaffi to go largely on the defensive.

Actually neither is correct.  Qaddafi is not on the defensive, and it isn't a question of gloom and doom.

I said largely, not completely.  He may well be able to complete his efforts against the remaining pockets of resistance in the west, but he has been forced to go on the defensive in the east which is where the NTC is concentrated.  Once a buffer zone with no major civilian concentrations present is establishe between the two sides, I expect the front will stabilize for a while.  Allied air power and NTC ground power should be able to keep Gaddafi from advancing, but NTC ground power will have a hard time advancing on its own against Gaddafi ground power.

[opebo]

What's 'TNC'?  'The New Colonials'?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What's 'TNC'?  'The New Colonials'?

So I got the preferred order in English wrong. NTC for National Transitional Council or TNC for Transitional National Council.  (i.e., the Rebel Alliance fighting the Emperor Gaddafi.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

That being said, some French reporters who were in Zenten (west, rather strategical geographically), hold by rebel forces, made a video report showing the siege of this city by Gaddafi's army.

According to the French reporter there, the rebel forces defeated the siege and the attack of Gaddafi's army in Zenten/Zintan, a clear victory by themselves with lots of Gaddafi's positions destroyed and also with heavy military equipment caught, such as several tanks and rockets. About 15 rebels died, but big party in the city. Some remaining Gaddafi forces of this front would have fled toward the next city, one with a military base.

[J. J.]

J.J., for all your gloom and doom here, the fact is that air power has forced Gadaffi to go largely on the defensive.

Actually neither is correct.  Qaddafi is not on the defensive, and it isn't a question of gloom and doom.

I said largely, not completely.  He may well be able to complete his efforts against the remaining pockets of resistance in the west, but he has been forced to go on the defensive in the east which is where the NTC is concentrated.  Once a buffer zone with no major civilian concentrations present is establishe between the two sides, I expect the front will stabilize for a while.  Allied air power and NTC ground power should be able to keep Gaddafi from advancing, but NTC ground power will have a hard time advancing on its own against Gaddafi ground power.

He is no where near a defensive in the east and the "NTC forces" are a group of guys with guns that are not even close to a military force.

As of an hour ago, the Guardian reported Zintan still being shelled and continued Libyan attacks.  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/22/libya-ajdabiya-gaddafi-forces-rebels

[Jens]

I just found out the Danish parliament voted unanimously to send aircraft to enforce the zone which I find kind of interesting. I figured the Red-Green Alliance at least would've voted against.

And they are getting quite some internal head for that decision - I'm seriously considering attending their congress in May, just to witness the discussion

[J. J.]

Apparently Qadaffi forced have entered the town of Misrata.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/22/gaddafi-attacks-misrata

The air assault has slowed the advance, but not stopped it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

J.J., take a look at a map.  Both Zirtan and Misurata are in the west and Gaddafi's forces had already entered Misurata by the time the air campaign began. Where Gaddafi has been forced to retreat is in the east.

[RodPresident]

Of course, Gaddafi is so legitimate like Cameron that is only representative of one constituency and from a party that has a plurality, but not a majority of popular support. Merkel, Cameron, Berlusconi and Sarkozy shook Gadaffi's hand and made business with him, but now, they are throwing him to lions. At least, Gaddafi made Libya more developed than in Idris' time and was more tied with Africa and Islamic's interests from a good group of Libyans.