Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Lunar]

Another question is what TIPP is doing to CAUSE this systemic error.  Could this mistake be something that impacts other parts of the poll that might not show up in the crosstabs?  Could the "fixing" bleed over into other crosstabs?

[TheGlobalizer]

What I meant was that what you quoted indicated why the numbers were screwy (in that much-highlighted chart last week) in the first place -- extremely low sample sizes.

I'm not enough of a stats guy to get into the fix side of things.

What happened is they took a screwy sample size and weighted it higher.  That makes it less likely to be indicative of bad methodology, because the raw sample was smaller.  On the other hand, the pollster literally just proved their methodology is bad when they tried to "fix" it.  The problem is, the initial tiny sample size is indicative of a methodological problem.  They essentially outright admitted they had one, and then they de-randomized their sample to fix it.  Bad juju.

It was indicative of some problem in methodology -- that problem was undersampling, which cannot be fixed by drastically overweighting a tiny sample, especially when that sample was wrong.  I was right, J. J. wasn't.  I am King of the Mountain, bring me your women.

So why don't they just go out and get more 18-24s?  Or am I missing some geeky pollster sh** that allows a poll to be valid without actually polling people? 

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good day for Obama.

[Alcon]

So why don't they just go out and get more 18-24s?  Or am I missing some geeky pollster sh** that allows a poll to be valid without actually polling people? 

That would be fine, and it's what they're doing.  But their sample size was still suspiciously small (unless I mis-calculated it) and enough to indicate that their sampling was probably screwy.  Moreover, their new youth turnout target would be a decline from 2004.  I think youth turnout isn't going to boom, but I'd be surprised if it were down from '04.

The problem is his solution:

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The first is OK-ish, but has a flaw: it's not a random person under 30, rather, it's the youngest.  In a house with two sub-30s, it's not going to get a random sub-30, but rather the younger.  Trivial, but un-random.

The second, while non-specific, is not trivial.  How does he determine what houses are "likely to have younger voters"?  Why isn't he telling us?  What in the phone book says "kid here"?  How could this not introduce other variables?  I can't imagine a way of determining a kid is likely present that would not introduce other variables.

So, here are my complaints:

1. The guy's sampling was suspiciously low on young voters.

2. His new weights still seem suspiciously low.

3. Instead of fixing his sample size, he just upweighted.

4. He didn't fix anything until suspicious samples forced him to.

5. The way he fixed it is un-transparent, un-random, and could easily introduce new error.  It also does not address whatever sampling error caused the problem originally.

Death by a thousand papercuts.  I don't trust his poll much anymore, and don't recommend anyone else does.

[Sam Spade]

Daily tracker update complete.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, McCain stopped gaining today. He's lost.

[Sam Spade]

My polling firm:

Obama 50.1 (-0.1)
McCain 43.1 (-0.2)
Undecided 6.8 (+0.3)

[Reds4]

Wow... static numbers from John... won't last long I'm sure...

I wonder if this means a decent McCain sample came on since the previous day was obviously extremely strong for Obama... or maybe I'm just overthinking this.. it is Zogby after all.

[J. J.]

IBP/TIPP has, um, 'corrected' their process:

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Clicky

I personally think he's making some amateur pollster mistakes in 'correcting' his poll.  It's a little Zogbyian, but make your own decisions.

So J.J. can stop hiding from lightning and admit he was wrong and we were right?

I'm not sure that he was, though obviously the subsample was.

[Lunar]

We said there was a methodological error and you consistently, throughout many posts, continued to deny this.  You were wrong on this fact (even if you maintain that it "doesn't matter").  There was an error, the poll corrected it through amateur means, and then they started to become more favorable to Obama.  You defended the poll's legitimacy even though their own pollster can't defend their model that they were using at the time.  You refused to believe that the poll had an inherent flaw, insisting that we shouldn't look at such things.  C'mon man!

[Tender Branson]

R2000/DailyKos - Friday, Oct. 31:

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 45 (nc)

Thursday sample only: Obama 52 (+2), McCain 44 (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Diageo/Hotline - Friday, Oct. 31:

Obama 48 (nc)
McCain 41 (-1)

[Lief 🗽]

obamamentum

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 31, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	50.1%	43.1%	O+7.0%	O+0.1%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	50.86%	46.89%	O+3.97%	M+0.70%	Haven't checked today's sample yet.
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	O+1%	Slight move down for McCain.
Hotline	48%	41%	O+7%	O+1%	Ditto.
R2000/DKos	51%	45%	O+6%	O+1%	Ditto.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	43%	O+9%	O+2%	Good McCain sample bumped off.
Traditional	51%	43%	O+8%	O+3%
IBD/TIPP	48.2%	43.8%	O+4.4%	O+0.3%	Looks like a good Obama sample bumped on.
ABC/WP	53%	44%	O+9%	O+1%	Slight movement towards Obama.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.21%	43.97%	O+6.24%	O+0.72%	Slight movement towards Obama today.

[Eraserhead]

A great day so far, although Rasmussen sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Rowan]

DRUDGE SHOCK

ZOGBY:  MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

[Hash]

DRUDGE SHOCK

ZOGBY:  MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

LOL

[Eraserhead]

DRUDGE SHOCK

ZOGBY:  MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

LOL

Alright, Sam deserves to do a victory strut (not that this very surprising).

[Lunar]

I gave it 9:1 odds of showing a lead, Sam only said it'd be at least tied.

F***cking Drudge giving it the headline treatment when it's a ZOGBY, SINGLE-DAY poll...  I swear, sometimes HuffPost is less ridiculous.

[ChrisFromNJ]

F***cking Drudge giving it the headline treatment when it's a ZOGBY, SINGLE-DAY poll...  I swear, sometimes HuffPost is less ridiculous.

Sometimes?

Huffington Post is infinitely more reasonable than Drudge Report.

[Lunar]

F***cking Drudge giving it the headline treatment when it's a ZOGBY, SINGLE-DAY poll...  I swear, sometimes HuffPost is less ridiculous.

Sometimes?

Huffington Post is infinitely more reasonable than Drudge Report.

Yeah their in-depth researched article analyzing whether Palin's lipstick is tattooed on was really groundbreaking.

[cinyc]

I gave it 9:1 odds of showing a lead, Sam only said it'd be at least tied.

F***cking Drudge giving it the headline treatment when it's a ZOGBY, SINGLE-DAY poll...  I swear, sometimes HuffPost is less ridiculous.

More from Drudge:
ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

It's Zogby, the media whore pollster.  You can't generate headlines going with the flow.

[Eraserhead]

The man is an absolute whore. An absolute whore. How many years in a row does he have to be exposed as a fraud for him to finally fold?

Dumb question, I know.

[Sam Spade]

I gave it 9:1 odds of showing a lead, Sam only said it'd be at least tied.

Please at least quote me correctly next time.  Thanks. 

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

Another thing: Friday night/Halloween polling is bound to be horrible.  Do not trust it one bit.

Zogby polls (*supposedly*) during the daytime, so he's actually exempt from this edict.

[Wall St. Wiz]

LOL by Monday night Obama will be up 10.  I wonder if he just makes this stuff up to get media coverage.  Lets see if we see a monster day for McCain in the other trackers tomorrow.