In a nutshell, Brown leads on capability and Camerin leads on likeablity
Exactly
Added to which there is a suggestion that the poll over sampled Labour voters.
Mori’s volatility of late is simply bizarre, I got this from pb.com…
Pollster variations since November 2005Mori: Labour lead/deficit in a range from +10 to -9
Populus: Labour lead/deficit in a range +8 to -1
YouGov: Labour lead/deficit in a range +2 to -2
ICM: Labour lead/deficit in a range +5 to -4
… to my mind both YouGov and ICM, despite different methodologies seem most credible of all the pollsters but for Mori to have such variations with no real events to have caused them (indeed currently events would seem to be running against Labour) simply suggests that Bob Worcester has learnt nothing from his “President Kerry” and “Labour Landslide” calls of the past.
As things stand I think Labour is probably ever so slightly behind, due more to their own weakness (Dunfermline, Education Bill, etc…) than Tory strength.
Cameron has succeeded in winning back some support but for the most part its come from the softer LibDem supporters and to a lesser extent from Labour. But with his honeymoon over he’s stalled while he fights to establish his authority over the party while resisting calls for a shift to the right.
Meanwhile the LibDems have recouped their losses thanks largely to the Tories once again “talking about themselves” and a mix of Dunfermline and general Labour difficulty returning them to contention.
I think things will remain pretty similar until the fight Blair’s got with his backbenchers and the fight Cameron’s with the Tory right are both resolved one way or another.