The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Market for Standard:

ÖVP: 30%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 1%

[Tender Branson]

OGM Carinthia federal elections poll:

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Amazing!

[Tender Branson]

The date of the Burgenland state elections will probably be changed to May 30, instead of May 2.

The federal ÖVP helped out their state party yesterday in blocking the dissolvement of the Burgenland parliament. Therefore it is most likely on May 30 now.

They fear that the March 21 SPÖ-proposed referendum in Southern Burgenland about the construction of an asylum centre and the Presidential election on April 25 with a big Fischer (SPÖ) victory might push the Burgenland SPÖ to over 50%.

SPÖ-governor Niessl has said he`ll fight the decision and wants to check now if the ÖVP move was unconstitutional. But I think it doesn't matter when the vote takes place: The ÖVP will lose badly.

[Tender Branson]

New Upper Austria poll by Spectra (700 voters questioned) for the OÖN and it shows the ÖVP dominating:

ÖVP: 49-51% (compared with 2009 state elections: +3)
SPÖ: 21-23% (-3)
FPÖ: 13-15% (-1)
Greens: 10-12% (+2)
Others: 2-4% (-1)

And if federal elections were to be held in Upper Austria right now:

ÖVP: 33-35% (compared with 2008 federal elections: +7)
SPÖ: 30-32% (nc)
FPÖ: 14-16% (-4)
Greens: 10-12% (+1)
BZÖ: 4-6% (-4)
Others: 3-5% (nc)

http://www.nachrichten.at/storage/pic/artikelbilder/politik/193455_3_oongrafik_barometer.jpg

http://www.nachrichten.at/storage/pic/artikelbilder/politik/193453_1_oongrafik_Sonntagsfrage.jpg

The current ÖVP-Green government in Upper Austria has a 55-35 approval rating.

Gov. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) has a 80-12 approval rating, and his Green Vice-Governor Rudi Anschober a 55-26 approval rating.

Voters in Upper Austria also say that the ÖVP is the most favorable party:

ÖVP: 61% have a favorable opinion, 28% unfavorable
SPÖ: 42% have a favorable opinion, 47% unfavorable
Greens: 39% have a favorable opinion, 46% unfavorable
FPÖ: 23% have a favorable opinion, 65% unfavorable

http://www.nachrichten.at/storage/scl/artikelbilder/politik/193454_m0t1w600h450q80v7824.jpg

[Tender Branson]

New federal Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 31%
FPÖ/FPK: 22%
Grüne: 12%%
BZÖ: 1%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Pröll (ÖVP): 29%
Faymann (SPÖ): 21%
Glawischnig (Greens): 7%
Strache (FPÖ): 5%
None of the above: 25%
Undecided: 13%

New Styria state elections poll by IMAS for the Kronen Zeitung:

SPÖ: 40% (-2)
ÖVP: 40% (+1)
FPÖ: 7% (+2)
KPÖ: 5% (-1)
Greens: 5% (nc)
BZÖ: 2% (nc)
Others: 1% (nc)

Direct vote for Governor:

Voves (SPÖ): 35%
Schützenhöfer (ÖVP): 21%

Gov. Voves has the job approval of about 2/3 of the voters, according to the article.

http://www.krone.at/krone/S153/object_id__181828/hxcms/

Good, there seems to be some political fallout for the FPÖ/BZÖ because of Carinthia ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest GMK Burgenland state elections poll:

SPÖ: 48% (-4)
ÖVP: 30% (-6)
FPÖ: 15% (+9)
Greens: 6% (+1)
BZÖ: 1% (+1)

[KuntaKinte]

BZÖ: 1% (+1)

lol

[Tender Branson]

Nothing really new on the Presidential elections, except that President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) has spoken out yesterday in favor of full marriage rights for gay couples incl. adoptions.

Civil Unions were signed into Austrian law, effective by Jan. 1, 2010

[Tender Branson]

Here are 2 maps showing the results of the 2005 Styria town council elections and state elections:

[Tender Branson]

Unemployment rate in December 2009 by Austrian labor counties (self-made graphic):



Light blue: below 50% of the national rate (< 4.3%)
Middle blue: between 50-75% of the national rate (4.3%-6.4)
Dark blue: between 75% and the national rate (6.4%-8.6%)

Yellow: between national rate and 125% of it (8.6%-10.7%)
Orange: between 125-150% of the national rate (10.7%-12.9%)
Dark orange: more than 150% of the national rate (> 12.9%)

Austrian national average: 8.6%

[Tender Branson]

First Carinthia poll by Gallup/Ö24 following yesterday's re-launch of the Carinthia-BZÖ, where Josef Bucher was elected chairman with 99.6% of the delegates:

SPÖ: 24-26%
BZÖ (Bucher/Petzner): 22-24%
FPK (Scheuch/Dörfler): 18-20%
ÖVP: 14-16%
FPÖ (Jannach): 7-9%
Greens: 7-9%

Gov. Dörfler (FPK) approval rating:

34% Approve
63% Disapprove

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Sensation-BZOe-in-Kaernten-vor-FPK-0630381.ece

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Bucher-mit-996-Prozent-Landesparteichef-0629985.ece

I´ve already said that the BZÖ still has a big potential in Carinthia, but that they are already ahead of the FPK is astonishing ...

The Far-Right now has 50% in this state, which is 1% more than in the 2009 state elections.

[KuntaKinte]

So Carinthia now has three far-right parties bitching at each other. Unique...

[Tender Branson]

New unemployment numbers are out for January:

323.651 unemployed persons (+22.122 compared with Jan. 2009, +7.3%)

National unemployment rate (excl. self-employed): 8.9%

This is the lowest increase of unemployed persons in about 2 years.

January 2010 unemployment rates by Austrian state:

Salzburg (yay !): 5.7%
Tyrol: 6.4%
Upper Austria: 6.9%
Vorarlberg: 7.4%
Vienna: 9.8%
Lower Austria: 9.9%
Styria: 10.1%
Burgenland: 12.7%
Carinthia (lol !): 13.0%

http://www.bmsk.gv.at/cms/site/attachments/1/4/3/CH0735/CMS1262602258150/arbeitsmarkt_vorab_oesterreich_201001.pdf

Eurostat/ILO unemployment rate (incl. self-employed, December 2009): 5.4% (2nd lowest in the EU)

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-29012010-AP/EN/3-29012010-AP-EN.PDF

In January, unemployment actually decreased by 2% in my county (Zell am See). It had the second lowest unemployment rate in Austria in December after Reutte.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna State Elections poll by OGM for News (500 people questioned):

SPÖ: 42% (-7)
FPÖ: 20% (+5)
ÖVP: 17% (-2)
Greens: 16% (+1)
BZÖ: 3% (+2)
Others: 2% (+1)

Direct vote for Mayor:

Michael Häupl (SPÖ): 45%
H.C. Strache (FPÖ): 12%

Preferred coalition:

SPÖ-ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ-Greens: 22%
SPÖ-FPÖ: 16%

http://www.news.at/articles/1005/8/261041/der-kampf-wien-spoe-news-umfrage-fpoe

On Feb. 11-13, there will also be a referendum about 5 topics in the city, initiated by the city SPÖ:

* On the employment of janitors
* On the introduction of a city-toll
* On the introduction of all-day-long schooling of children
* On the subway being operated on a 24/7/365 basis
* On the introduction of mandatory registration of "attack dogs"

According to a recent Gallup poll, Vienna voters are likely to back all measures except the city-toll by a wide margin (70-80%). The city-toll is opposed by 70% of voters.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Haeupl-verliert-seine-Mehrheit-0613195.ece

[Tender Branson]

According to a Ö24 article today, FPÖ-leader Strache himself is "strongly considering" entering the Presidential race. He says in the interview that he could get more than 30% against President Fischer. But the FPÖ will wait until March to declare their candidate, because if they do earlier, Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl could reschedule the Vienna state elections to just after the Presidential elections in April and if Strache loses to Fischer, he cannot be FPÖ front-runner in Vienna anymore.

I`d like to see how much Strache could cut into the ÖVP electorate, if they don`t run a candidate. I guess 40% of ÖVP voters would stay at home, 30% would back Strache and 30% would back Fischer.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-will-gegen-Fischer-antreten-0636057.ece

New Ö24/Gallup poll:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 12%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

New Upper Austria IMAS poll:

ÖVP: 48%
SPÖ: 23%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 8%
Others: 2%

[Tender Branson]

It is more and more likely that Barbara Rosenkranz will be the FPÖ-candidate for president. On February 22 the FPÖ will most likely decide on their candidate, but Rosenkranz is already shooting pictures for campaign posters and they have already reserved the site www.barbararosenkranz.at for their campaign.

In other news, a FPÖ-candidate running for the Bludenz (Vorarlberg) city council has been thrown out of the FPÖ after talking about euthanizing Muslims, Islam being a degenerated, vile religion and saying that "being called a Nazi by these Muslims is a honor to him".

The Greens are most likely to decide on a presidential candidate on February 19 (they lean against running a candidate) and the ÖVP even later (they also lean against a candidate and let the playing field to the FPÖ).

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2010-02-02/725/Greens_to_decide_on_presidential_candidate_this_month

[KuntaKinte]

If the FPÖ runs a candidate doesn't the ÖVP have to do the same just to make sure that they are the "leading force" on the right?

[Tender Branson]

If the FPÖ runs a candidate doesn't the ÖVP have to do the same just to make sure that they are the "leading force" on the right?

Sure, normally they would have to run a candidate, but I think they are speculating that President Fischer will win in a landslide and that the FPÖ is damaged enough by the Carinthia adventure of integrating the FPK a few weeks earlier.

For example there`s a new OGM trust index of Austrian politicians out and it shows FPÖ-leader Strache`s trust rating down to 23%, with 69% of Austrians having no trust in Strache. That`s a big drop compared with last years rating.

Therefore they could argue that if Rosenkranz gets 20-30% in the Presidential Election, it would still be less than the Far-Right got in the 2008 parliamentary elections and therefore they are still the leading party on the right, because they are polling between 30-35% right now. The trust index also shows ÖVP Vice-Chancellor Pröll having the second highest trust rating (59-35) after President Fischer (73-21), while SPÖ Chancellor Faymann is now in negative territory for the first time (45-46).

I think the opinions in the top ÖVP circles are more leaning toward winning back the governorship in Styria rather than waging a strong Presidential campaign.

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BundespolitikerInnen_Februar10.pdf

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

In other news, a FPÖ-candidate running for the Bludenz (Vorarlberg) city council has been thrown out of the FPÖ after talking about euthanizing Muslims, Islam being a degenerated, vile religion and saying that "being called a Nazi by these Muslims is a honor to him".

This sort of thing is commonplace, isn't it?

[Tender Branson]

In other news, a FPÖ-candidate running for the Bludenz (Vorarlberg) city council has been thrown out of the FPÖ after talking about euthanizing Muslims, Islam being a degenerated, vile religion and saying that "being called a Nazi by these Muslims is a honor to him".

This sort of thing is commonplace, isn't it?

No, this is more the exception than the rule, even within the FPÖ.

Also, new federal Gallup/Ö24 poll:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 31%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 12%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

[Tender Branson]

On Feb. 11-13, there will also be a referendum about 5 topics in the city, initiated by the city SPÖ:

* On the employment of janitors
* On the introduction of a city-toll
* On the introduction of all-day-long schooling of children
* On the subway being operated on a 24/7/365 basis
* On the introduction of mandatory registration of "attack dogs"

According to a recent Gallup poll, Vienna voters are likely to back all measures except the city-toll by a wide margin (70-80%). The city-toll is opposed by 70% of voters.

Mostly in line with the polls, except the 24/7/365 subway traffic, which was opposed by 54% of the voters.

[Tender Branson]

Mostly in line with the polls, except the 24/7/365 subway traffic, which was opposed by 54% of the voters.

Correction: With almost all votes counted (except the postal votes), Vienna voters are now backing the 24/7/365 subway traffic with 54% of the vote.

.....

A new poll by the Medical University of Graz finds that 78% of Austrians support passive euthanasia of terminally ill patients, 13% are opposed and 9% undecided.

Active euthanasia is supported by 62% of Austrians, with 30% opposed and 8% undecided.

1000 Austrians aged 16+ were questioned by the Univ. of Graz Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology.

.....

It seems like Stanley Greenberg is doing polls for the Vienna SPÖ (?!):

The Vienna SPÖ commissioned a poll of young voters between 16 and 29 and the results are analysed by Stanley Greenberg.

16-19 year old Vienna voters support: 26% SPÖ, 21% Greens, FPÖ 12%

20-29 year old Vienna voters support: 32% SPÖ, 17% Greens, FPÖ 12%

http://www.news.at/articles/1007/11/262213/jungwaehler-spoe-fpoe-16-19-jaehrige-rot

[Tender Branson]

If this internal SPÖ poll of young voters is true, which I doubt, it`s actually bad news for the SPÖ.

The SORA Exit Poll of the 2005 Vienna State elections showed 16-19 year olds voting for:

46% SPÖ
26% Greens
16% ÖVP
11% FPÖ

I guess the FPÖ now has a far bigger share than in 2005, when the Black-Blue government was still in office.

[Tender Branson]

It seems that the Greens are not only gaining in German polls. New Standard/Market poll:

ÖVP: 30% (+4)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 23% (+5)
Greens: 14% (+4)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)