US House Redistricting: Kentucky

[MilesC56]

...I don't get it.

At a quick glance, it makes Chandler ever-so-slightly safer. It also makes the Whitfield and Rogers districts somewhat easier to target in the event of retirement and/or death.

I guess I was expecting them to give Chandler more coal/eastern counties

[Torie]

Since almost nothing really needs to be changed, it would be interesting to ask the Dems why they got a bit more ambitious, since it won't happen unless the GOP agrees.

[Bacon King]

Since almost nothing really needs to be changed, it would be interesting to ask the Dems why they got a bit more ambitious, since it won't happen unless the GOP agrees.

Preemptive posturing, so they don't have to make any real concessions in the compromise map?

[muon2]

This would be my neutral plan. No county is divided except Jefferson and the maximum deviation is 928 persons. Districts are compact and incumbents remain in their current districts.

[Torie]

Muon2, you chopped KY-06 to pieces, but your switch out of Dem Franklin County for that grab bag of Dem counties in the east left the partisan balance about the same - 54% McCain of the two party vote as compared to the 55% it is now. I would assume however, that they will just end up with the existing map, which requires only very minor changes. Why would they do otherwise?

[muon2]

Muon2, you chopped KY-06 to pieces, but your switch out of Dem Franklin County for that grab bag of Dem counties in the east left the partisan balance about the same - 54% McCain of the two party vote as compared to the 55% it is now. I would assume however, that they will just end up with the existing map, which requires only very minor changes. Why would they do otherwise?

My KY-6 may seem chopped up, but it preserves 62% of the population in the district. I also would justify the rest of that district based on using the I-64 corridor east of Lexington.

My goal was compactness and whole counties with a small enough deviation that it could be justified based on the stated goals. Of course, I too expect that reality would indeed keep the map similar to the present version. This is merely what I would do.

[Torie]

It would appear that the Dems should be pleased that KY has 6 CD's, rather than 5. At 5, the geography vis a vis the population centers and regions (blue grass, mountains, burbs and two cities), seem to tend to screw them.  

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

It would appear that the Dems should be pleased that KY has 6 CD's, rather than 5. At 5, the geography vis a vis the population centers and regions (blue grass, mountains, burbs and two cities, seem to tend to screw them.  

As a Democrat, I wouldn't just sit and watch as my party gets screwed out of both of its districts. The loss of the Louisville seat would be inevitable, but I'd fight tooth and nail to make sure the Lexington district goes east, not west.

Something like this:



Now, to be sure, that wouldn't put the Democrats in an ideal position, but it's certainly better than your iteration.

[Torie]

Your map is more erose and uglier than mine, Vazdul. A clear gerrymander!   I tried to just go with the flow, and see where it ended up. It is interesting that a state losing one seat, causes, if things go "naturally," one party losing two seats. Who knew?

[MilesC56]

I could maybe see Grimes winning Torie's green district. Kinda depends; she'd have to hold strong in Lexington and not get blown out elsewhere.

[Vasall des Midas]

Dems pass their map.

Reps pass theirs.

Now they negotiate. Filing begins January 31st unless they change the law because they haven't passed a map yet.

As you can see, Reps agree to remove the silly little splinters into Louisville in favor of a reasonable split, helping Yarmuth. Both parties are mildly ambitious regarding the 6th. The Dem map also tries to make the 5th marginally interesting should Rogers retire (he's 74) - and only-just-about keeps his home in the district. And attempts to remove the inherited sillyness in Western Kentucky, apparently with little partisan motif.

[Padfoot]

I don't understand what the deal is with the border between the 1st and 2nd in the GOP map/current map.  What's the reason for the 1st hooking underneath the 2nd.  Is it to keep incumbents in their districts or something.  I actually like the GOP map better except for that part.

[Vasall des Midas]

I don't understand what the deal is with the border between the 1st and 2nd in the GOP map/current map.  What's the reason for the 1st hooking underneath the 2nd.  Is it to keep incumbents in their districts or something.  I actually like the GOP map better except for that part.

It's because that's what it's been since... uh... it gets worse with every census as the state's growth areas are elsewhere, but Owensboro has always (whatever time frame "always" is, here) been in the 2nd district and not in a district that !!!1!!!stretched to the Mississippi!!!1!!!omg!

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/2b8b32eee01b4f26a5c4525c93c70a33/KY-XGR--Political-Redistricting/

[Kevinstat]

I don't understand what the deal is with the border between the 1st and 2nd in the GOP map/current map.  What's the reason for the 1st hooking underneath the 2nd.  Is it to keep incumbents in their districts or something.  I actually like the GOP map better except for that part.

I believe that was done in 1991 when Kentucky lost it's seventh U.S. House seat.  The Democrats, whom I assume were in complete control back then, were probably thinking that the fouth district would be somewhat of a Republican vote sink (paradoxically it was the only Dem seat in the state at the end of the life of those lines), the fifth would be a tossup but fairly safe for a pork-spending incumbent after 1992, the first and second would continue to elect conservative Democrats (Tom Barlow messed that up by winning the 1992 KY-01 primary), the third district would remain a Democratic stronghold, and the R-held sixth district would likely be won back (that actually worked in the short term, and is working again now).  Obviously things didn't work out according to plan.

[MilesC56]

Here we have it. This is going to Beshear's desk.



Chandler would have won by between 6000 and 7000 votes in 2010.

[asexual trans victimologist]

This is actually a pretty nice-looking map, relative to extremes of redistricting in this country.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

KY-01 is looking more and more like a snail with each passing redistricting.

[So the Heroes Fall]

This is actually a pretty nice-looking map, relative to extremes of redistricting in this country.

District 1 is getting more and more ridiculous though especially since Davies County and Owensboro probably has more in common with the counties to its immediate west than what it's being paired with now.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.kentucky.com/2012/02/10/2063378/senate-panel-approves-compromise.html#storylink=rss

Nice article.

[Vasall des Midas]

The final district for Chandler is further east than what Dems originally proposed, and I think more Democratic as well. So I think it's safe to say that the changes to the first and fifth were intended and used largely as bargaining chips. And used well.

[MilesC56]

Some partisan numbers.

Overall, KY-06 shifts about 1.5% more Democratic.

Old:
McCain- 56.2%
McConnell- 49.3%

New:
McCain- 54.7%
McConnell- 48.3%

[Frodo]

The Kentucky Supreme Court has struck down the legislative redistricting maps.

And here is the ruling itself, for those curious enough to read it.

[muon2]

The Kentucky Supreme Court has struck down the legislative redistricting maps.

And here is the ruling itself, for those curious enough to read it.

If only they'd have used my methodology I've espoused on the CA wine country thread, they could have maximized subregions and guaranteed minimal splits while staying within the 5% limit.

[Frodo]

Let's suppose Republicans win complete control of the Kentucky legislature (and there's a good chance of this actually happening), in time for a do-over of redistricting of the legislature in accordance with the wishes of the state Supreme Court.

What would the maps look like for both houses?