The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Ouch. He held no punches back on Huntsman.

[Tayya]

Gillibrand has got to be one of the most overrated potential future names of the American political landscape.

[Mr. Morden]

On Monday, Rand Paul will be in South Carolina to have a private meeting with some conservative bigwigs in the state:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/is_paul_getting_an_early_start_on_2016_white_house_race-220814-1.html

He certainly looks like someone who's considering a 2016 presidential run.  This, despite the fact that, as noted last month, he's already said he's running for reelection for his Senate seat, yet the timing of the filing deadlines in Kentucky makes it logistically impossible to simultaneously run for president:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166421.0

[RogueBeaver]

Warner profile.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-mark-warner.html

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Warner profile.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-mark-warner.html

I continue to disagree with people about his charisma.  His 2008 speech was very good; not as good as Obama or Bill, but a very solid speaker.  And he's human, unlike Romney.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

A good Kos profile from November:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1162855/-VA-Sen-Mark-Warner-D-Leaning-More-Towards-Capitol-Hill-Than-Richmond

[BluegrassBlueVote]

New hairstyle for Rubio. 2016 may be the last cycle before he looks like Rudy.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio, Ryan, Santorum, and Rand Paul will all speak at CPAC in March:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/17/rick-santorum-to-speak-at-key-conservative-conference/

Probably some other 2016ers will as well (e.g., Jindal usually speaks at CPAC, doesn't he?), but those are the only prospective 2016ers who've been announced so far.

[Mr. Morden]

So I already mentioned that Paul, Rubio, Ryan and Santorum will be speaking at CPAC.  Looks like Jindal, Gingrich, and Walker will be doing so as well.  And in fact, CPAC will go international this year, as Stephen Harper and Benjamin Netanyahu will speak as well:

http://www.wisconsingazette.com/breaking-news/wis-governor-to-speak-at-conservative-conference.html

It also looks like the National Review Institute will be holding a "The Future of Conservatism" summit next week, with Cruz, Ryan, Jindal, DeMint, McDonnell, and Walker all slated to speak:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/15/inside-the-beltway-lonely-obama-in-2008/

[RogueBeaver]

More P16 stuff: Why Jeb missed the boat, plus a Cruz profile.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/three-guys-who-blew-their-chance-at.html

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-ted-cruz.html

[Mr. Morden]

The Cruz profile highlights something that I'd missed, which is that when Politico ran a story titled "Ted Cruz speech stokes 2016 speculation", Cruz actually reposted it on his website.  Hardly the act of someone looking to downplay presidential speculation.

[Beet]

Gillibrand has got to be one of the most overrated potential future names of the American political landscape.

One problem for Gillibrand is-- what base is she going to run from? "The women" isn't a base, she needs her constituency, and her constituency just happens to be more beholden to Cuomo than her.

In fact, there is rather already a serious two-way in New York State politics if both Hillary and Cuomo run. My sense is that Cuomo will have had enough time as governor (if indeed, he has not already done so) to take control of the New York Democratic Party and machine, and this would be a serious problem for either Hillary or Gillibrand.

[Mr. Morden]

Chris Christie

Given the fact that he both purportedly wanted to see Romney elected in 2012 and that he faces reelection in a Democratic leaning state this year, Christie has been remarkably open about the fact that he's remarkably open about running for president himself in 2016.

Let's walk through the history of signals from Christie that he may or may not be interested in national office.

Let's start with Christie porn.  No, this isn't something sexual that would appeal to a female or gay version of Clarence.  These are the videos of Christie yelling at people that got movement conservatives so excited in 2010, affectionately dubbed Christie porn by some:

http://www.therightscoop.com/oh-yeah-more-chris-christie-porn/

Now, I'm not going to pass judgment on this here, but it's fair to say that at least some pundits saw this as a staged way for Christie to get on Youtube and expand his brand to a nationwide audience, getting him in the conversation as a possible future candidate for national office.

In fact, Christie was so successful in building his national brand that, in 2010 and 2011, there was a drumbeat of support for him to enter the race for the 2012 GOP nomination, since the existing field was so awful.  Christie denied any interest very early, as recounted in this timeline of his presidential denials:

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2011/10/brief-history-chris-christie-not-running-president

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Christie continued to deny interest in running for president, yet in July of 2011, he visited Iowa:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2011/07/25/new-jersey-governor-chris-christie-visits-iowa-rekindling-speculation-about-a-presidential-run/

Finally, after more than a year of repeated denials, the reporting suddenly suggested that Christie was reconsidering…..before finally deciding again on October 4th that he's not going to run, and he really means it this time.  Again, from that Mother Jones timeline:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One the day that he announced once and for all that he wasn't running in 2012, his advisors leaked to the press that he "was seriously looking at a run in 2016 and he refused to rule out the prospect of a future run.":

http://www.gazette.com/articles/trenton-126137-christie-decided.html

One week later, Christie endorsed Romney for the GOP nomination and the presidency.

Then, in the middle of the primary season, Christie does an interview with Oprah in which he mentions how much more ready he'll be for the presidency in 2016:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/01/gov_christie_tells_oprah_hell.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uhhh….Chris, you're a Republican who's endorsed Mitt Romney for president.  Isn't the correct answer on this topic "I don't see myself running in 2016 because I expect that Mitt Romney will be running for reelection"?

In any case, as we fastforward to spring.  Christie visits Israel and meets with Netanyahu, perhaps to burnish his international bona fides:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/the_whale_at_the_wall_oken1GUqPamnfVeZB6xgHL

During the spring and summer, Christie was apparently being vetted as a potential running mate for Romney.  A Politico story in May said the following:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153558.msg3296343#msg3296343

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He wanted it the most perhaps because he wanted to block a Rubio or a Ryan from becoming the next in line after Romney?  In any case, subsequent leaks, months after the fact, cast some doubt on this (Christie's purported desperation to be VP), but I won't rehash all of that now.  Suffice it to say, the Christie and Romney folks have starkly different takes on Christie's participation in the veepstakes.

Romney of course picked Ryan instead, though Christie was given the keynote speech at the convention….a speech which many people said was more about promoting himself for national office than it was about Romney:

http://www.ibtimes.com/rnc-speech-chris-christie-positions-himself-2016-and-upstages-romney-759755

At the convention, Christie spoke to both the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations:

http://omaha.com/article/20120827/NEWS/120829746

link

He then went to one event in Iowa and two events in New Hampshire during the fall:

http://thegazette.com/notes/government/20120911/nj-gov-christie-to-campaign-in-iowa/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/25/christie-visit-to-n-h-raises-some-eyebrows/

http://exeter.patch.com/articles/nj-gov-chris-christie-coming-to-exeter

Days before the election, he went out of his way to praise Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy.  You can read that however you like, but the Machiavellian take on it is that he wanted to give Obama a boost for his reelection so that 2016 would be an open contest that Christie could run in.

Following the election, Politico ran a story on 2016 politicking, which included this blurb on Christie:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3527577#msg3527577

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Finally, last month, he repeated the "I'll be more ready to be president in 2016" mantra from earlier in the year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166663.0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

After compiling all of those details on Christie, I feel like I've just written a novel.  OK, I know that I still have to do blurbs on Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio.  Anyone else?  Is there anyone who I haven't done a blurb on yet who I should?

[Mr. Morden]

So I already mentioned LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's purported desire to replace Ray LaHood as Secretary of Transportation in Obama's second term, as well as his apparent desire to then run for president.  Well, despite previously saying that he'd be out after one term, LaHood is still in office, and hasn't given any indication as to when he's leaving:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/ray-lahood-second-term-cabinet-status-86237.html

Meanwhile, Villaraigosa seems to have gotten himself into an awkward spot with Charlie Sheen.  Sheen tweeted this pic from the opening of the actor's hotel bar in Mexico:



The LA Times recaps the apparent dispute over what happened:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2013/01/charlie-sheen-antonio-villaraigosa.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Will this hurt Villaraigosa's presidential ambitions as much as Romney's run in with Sky Blu hurt his? [/sarcasm]

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a story on Hickenlooper, and how some of his aides seem to be hinting that we shouldn't take his denials of interest in the presidency completely seriously:

http://kdvr.com/2013/01/17/hickenlooper-presidential-buzz-building-slowly/

And here's a story on the taboo against single politicians seeking the presidency, with particular focus on Hickenlooper's recent separation from his wife:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/20/opinion/sunday/love-marriage-and-voters.html?_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

More signs of interest from Biden, starting with a Freudian slip:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/20/us-usa-inauguration-iowa-idUSBRE90J03R20130120

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323485704578254211027776062.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also attending that Inaugural ball held by Iowa Democrats?  Martin O'Malley.

[Blackacre]

More signs of interest from Biden, starting with a Freudian slip:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/20/us-usa-inauguration-iowa-idUSBRE90J03R20130120

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's gold for birthers. Birthers think Obama isn't really President because he wasn't born here, so Joe Biden would have been President the whole time. CONSPIRACY AAAAHHHHH xD

[Mr. Morden]

Biden asked again about running in 2016:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/01/21/biden-politics-inauguration-2016/1853155/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RogueBeaver]

Christie profile.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-chris-christie.html

[Simfan34]

Ouch. He held no punches back on Huntsman.

Who?

[Mr. Morden]

Schweitzer on why he's unlikely to join the Cabinet of someone else's administration:

http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-16755419-12584

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Big Biden 2016 story on Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/no-joke-joe-biden-makes-2016-moves-86600.html?hp=t2_3

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Likely Voter]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

so what happens if they both want to run and neither has 'faded away'?  Paper Scissors Rock?

[Mr. Morden]

prez16 flagged this article on Columba Bush from way back in 1989, when Jeb was just the son of a president, not yet holding office himself:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-02-13/features/8903050279_1_jeb-columba-columba-bush-bush-campaign

You must be logged in to read this quote.