The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Seeing her delivery of that statement reminds me that Hillary may not actually have this in the bag after all.

[RogueBeaver]

Perry will decide in June on reelect, '16 later this year.

http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/19/perry-to-decide-on-presidential-bid-in-2013/

P16 on the Top 5's faiths. All but Walker are Catholic.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/religion-and-republican-front-runners.html

[Likely Voter]

Perry will decide in June on reelect, '16 later this year.

http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/19/perry-to-decide-on-presidential-bid-in-2013/

P16 on the Top 5's faiths. All but Walker are Catholic.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/religion-and-republican-front-runners.html

I think being evangelical is going to give Walker (and possibly McDonnell) an advantage. The christian conservative wing can back a Catholic like Santorum if given no other choices, but they would prefer one of their own. Especially a seemingly successful governor as opposed to a losing Senate candidate.

[Blue3]

McDonnell is Catholic

[Likely Voter]

oops... After all the hubbub about McDonnell's masters thesis from Pat Robertson's Regent University I assumed he was evangelical...my mistake.

So then, more good news for Walker

[Blue3]

I don't think Walker is going to run... and if he does, he won't get anywhere.

[RogueBeaver]

NRO's Bob Costa was Tweeting this afternoon that most Pub insiders at this stage expect Ryan to forgo a run and focus on WM/Speakership but eventually take a run at the WH.

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul will headline the May 10 Lincoln Dinner in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, putting him Iowa 13 days before Scott Walker:

http://therun2016.com/rand-paul-headlining-cedar-rapids-dinner/

I've harped on Warren's apparent lack of interest in a presidential run before, but she's finally doing something that's at least consistent with presidential ambition.....writing a book:

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2013/03/19/elizabeth-warren-shopping-book-proposal-her-experiences-fighting-wall-street-washington/JCt1jBVyBimI6kxdQFFhNO/story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Carson likes Rand Paul, but says he still might run himself:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/343337/ben-carson-2016-i-rand-i-may-run-too-andrew-johnson

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[RogueBeaver]

Immigration hawks turn to Jindal. I doubt he hammers them on this, just lets it blow up on the tarmac and say "I was always against it."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/immigration-hawks-turn-their-lonely-eyes-bobby-jindal_708737.html

[Mr. Morden]

Boehner answers the question that no one was wondering about, in saying that he has no desire to be president:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/03/20/boehner-says-he-has-no-interest-in-being-president/

Meanwhile, Ryan says that he has no plans to follow Paul, Rubio, Santorum, and Walker to Iowa any time soon:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/20/ryan-talks-debt-ceiling-2016/

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[Likely Voter]

Immigration hawks turn to Jindal. I doubt he hammers them on this, just lets it blow up on the tarmac and say "I was always against it."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/immigration-hawks-turn-their-lonely-eyes-bobby-jindal_708737.html

I've been saying that with so many GOP 2016ers jumping on the comprehensive immigration bandwagon (semantics aside), someone has to emerge to try and grab the support of the nativist wing. Romney did it. They are just begging for someone to pander to them.

[Mr. Morden]

Immigration hawks turn to Jindal. I doubt he hammers them on this, just lets it blow up on the tarmac and say "I was always against it."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/immigration-hawks-turn-their-lonely-eyes-bobby-jindal_708737.html

I've been saying that with so many GOP 2016ers jumping on the comprehensive immigration bandwagon (semantics aside), someone has to emerge to try and grab the support of the nativist wing. Romney did it. They are just begging for someone to pander to them.

Chait compares the prospective 2016 candidates' positioning on immigration to the actions of a cartel:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/03/gop-candidates-form-pro-immigration-cartel.html

That is, they seem to have collectively agreed that it's important for the party to embrace the "reformist" position, but it only works if, like a cartel, they agree not to undercut each other.

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[Mr. Morden]

At least year's DNC, there was apparently a rumor going around that Delaware Gov. Jack Markell was interested in running for president in 2016.  Well, apparently a few weeks ago (it slipped past my attention because Markell isn't exactly on the national radar) Markell endorsed Biden for president in 2016:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/delaware-governor-endorses-joe-biden-for-president

I guess this is Biden's first endorser.  In any case, this obviously means that Markell won't run unless Biden doesn't.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio is spending top dollar on A-list political consultants, a clear sign of having national political ambitions.  This is true both of his Senate office and his PAC:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/marco-rubio-spends-big-on-consultants-89152.html

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/huckabee-presidential-run-not/2013/03/20/id/495520

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[Mr. Morden]

I want to associate myself with this column, "Stop Acting Like Cory Booker Might Run for President in 2016":

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/03/cory-booker-2016-president-run-campaign.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Christie is asked by a third grader if he's running for prez:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/21/chris-christie-2016-ellen-gallagher_n_2928363.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton to make first major public appearance since leaving office as SoS:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2013/03/22/hillary-clinton-joins-women-in-the-world-summit.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Some quick hits on a number of candidates:

Biden

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/289851-biden-fuels-2016-speculation-with-fundraisers-in-key-dem-primary-states

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Rubio

http://therun2016.com/rubios-chi-town-swing-2/

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Huntsman/Jindal

http://www.nola.com/business/baton-rouge/index.ssf/2013/03/huntsman_corp_announces_78_mil.html

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Huntsman Sr. was in Louisiana to announce the move, appearing with Bobby Jindal.  He quipped:

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/playbook/0313/playbook10282.html?hp=l9

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[publicunofficial]

http://www.politico.com/playbook/0313/playbook10282.html?hp=l9

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Assuming Ryan doesn't run (Which I think most of us agree on), would Romney's endorsement help or hurt Christie's chances in the primaries?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

People underestimate it, but Romney does have a pretty strong base of support.

[RogueBeaver]

Christie is Romney's successor as center-right candidate, so it wouldn't really hurt him unless only 1 or 2 righties made it out of the conservative invisible primary.

[DINGO Joe]

People underestimate it, but Romney does have a pretty strong base of support.

If by strong, you mean rich then yes, if you mean Romney could bring one votes by granting his seal of approval, I would be skeptical.