Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

London West was a shocker.

It was trending your way, though the margin was definitely surprising.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now that this thread is likely headed into a kind of a lull phase before the pending federal by-elections heat up, I thought I'd repost my questions from earlier this evening (besides one which was answered before I even asked it):

2) Also, a few pages back, but since these five by-elections had become the main elections du jour of this thread, there was some discussion of the provincial ridings that will be in effect for the next election.  Like one riding was "fools gold" for the NDP but a strong showing could help set them up for the next election when the riding will be better for them (I think that might have been SG where Giambrone is running).  Are the new provincial election districts finalized in Ontario?  Will they be the same as the new federal ridings with/without an exception for Northern Ontario like after the last redistribution?  The federal ridings finalized in Ontario, right?  There was an update on that on either this thread or (more likely) the Canadian General Discussion in the International General Discussion board, so perhaps I'll browse through the last several pages there.  But there might have been updates since then (like more provinces finalized).  And how final is final?  I think the House of Commons has to approve the maps, which is why the proposed abandonment of the "rurban" federal constituencies in Saskatchewan isn't a sure thing.  There was also a minority report that from what I've read was unprecedented, at least in SK and possibly everywhere (ie. most of the time the commissioners are eventually able to come to an agreement or the person(s) on the losing side go along with the majority out of custom or something).

3) As Ontario currently has a minority government, it might be worth knowing what the rough time is after which an election called would use the new lines.  Perhaps that date has already passed, which would mean the new lines have definitely been finalized.

Okay, that's enough for now.

Provincial boundaries haven't been even looked at. The federal boundaries haven't even been changed yet, but expect the final report to be passed in the Fall. I don't know what will happen with the provincial boundaries, they will probably follow the federal ones again, except status quo in Northern Ontario (1 additional seat there). Don't expect new boundaries in Ontario for at least another year, and so the next election which could be in the Spring wont happen on them. 

[Smid]

London West was a shocker.

It was trending your way, though the margin was definitely surprising.

Last minute strategic voting by Grits to stop the Tories?

[Kevinstat]

Thanks Hatman.  And you're right.

Toronto Centre could be interesting. Probably moreso than Bourassa. But it screams "fools gold" for the NDP. Certainly would be worth really fighting for to set up for the new more NDP-friendly riding to come (as DL pointed out).

[lilTommy]

Well that turned out to be a good night!
The NDP is definitely the winner, with the London West win and the strong SG showing. The Liberals are definitely breathing a little sigh of relief that they held two seats, and one was the premiers old one. The PCs lost, they might have broken into the GTA but lost seats they were "leading" in in OS and LW.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/andrea-horwaths-new-democrats-steals-the-show/article13571772/?service=mobile

I think if one followed the polls (and this isn't always the best indicator) but, from the get go the NDP had a strong candidate and there were many many comparisons to Kitchener-Waterloo, the party saw the momentum and Andrea (and resources) were poured into the area. As i mentioned the polls indicated a momentum in LW and SWon in general for the NDP.

SG was a victory for the NDP; their best showing since the riding was created and i think a large part of that has to do with Giambrone himself. love him/the situation of his nomination or not, he brought much needed attention and media focus. I'd say watch for him to run next provincial, possibly in another Scarborough riding (maybe Southwest which is much more NDP favourable and has a fed MP, Dan Harris was working on Giambrones campaing). If Marchese decides to step aside, Giambrone might jump to TS, but look to him sticking around on the provincial level... his transit credibility is a huge asset for him.
OS, it looks like the NDP performed about on par of a general election no? I think that's thanks to Bronwyns stong presence as a candidate; she might be better suited to run in Ottawa-Vanier. If her french is strong i think she could do well there, possibly take it (if Meilleur steps aside)
EL - PC Choo suffered from this very polarized campaign between to very strong and well known candidates, basically lost half his vote and when your in a position like that, keeping your deposit is something a relief.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bronwyn should run in Ottawa-Vanier. She lives there, and represents part of the riding on the OCDSB. Only problem is that half of her zone is less friendly to her. HOWEVER, that part of her zone is also more NDP friendly. Weird.

Oh, and I hate to rain on the NDP parade, but if the NDP were to form a majority government, they would NEED to win ridings like Scarborough-Guildwood. Not just London West. So, we still have a long way to go.

[adma]

Oh, and I hate to rain on the NDP parade, but if the NDP were to form a majority government, they would NEED to win ridings like Scarborough-Guildwood. Not just London West. So, we still have a long way to go.

Well, obviously.  But I find this "majority" talk to be really jumping the gun (esp. as "NDP majority" still resonates as a Rae-era punchline to many)--methinks the NDP will be satisfied w/a plurality of votes and/or seats; sure, they could "always do better", but...

And re Scarborough-Guildwood: I'd still chalk up the end result more to Giambrone as campaign-team-motivator than to Giambrone as candidate, where I suspect there was still just that touch of vestigial "liabilityness".  In fact, had somebody more "indigenous" like Neethan Shan run, we might be looking at a London West situation here...

[MaxQue]

I seen on LCN (a Quebec news channel) than the rumored Liberal candidate for Bourassa by-election is Emmanuel Dubourg, the Liberal MNA for Viau. He is Haitian.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two Haitians in the race then? Interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, due to Holyday's win, there is a potential municipal by-election in Ward 3 of Toronto. However, council could just appoint someone.

[Holmes]

I think everywhere outside of Toronto, we're going to be seeing a lot of erosion of Liberal support to the NDP. Liberals had a comfortable victory London West in the previous election, and they just had a Northern Ontario-esque showing there last night. Toronto will still cling to the Ontario Liberals though. Maybe the NDP can retake York South Weston, and take Scarborough Southwest and Rouge River, but all the rest will be Liberal/PC battles.

[adma]

Toronto will still cling to the Ontario Liberals though. Maybe the NDP can retake York South Weston, and take Scarborough Southwest and Rouge River, but all the rest will be Liberal/PC battles.

Aside from Premier Wynne's hometown advantage, I doubt it's so cut'n'dried--or at least in a general election, the Guildwood 3-way is a circumstance more likely to be repeated (even in Giambrone's absence) than the E-L epic 2-way.  (In the latter case, barring 90s-style Grit-favouring "unite-the-left" strategy vs Holyday, I'd expect the NDP to reattain a 15-20% par or beyond.)

In fact, if we're to draw from the byelections, *Ottawa* is more likely to cling to the O-Libs in lieu of the NDP than Toronto is.

[lilTommy]

adma - Agreed, a more local/ethnic candidate could have won it for the NDP (Guildwood). Neethan would have been fantastic, but i think he has his eye still on a rematch in Rouge River.

The by-elections taught us that the Liberals are a) vulnerable in TO, and b) they are still a force to  recon with in TO. At this stage; i'd agree with Holmes with York South, SSW & SRR going NDP; outside of that it will be a dog fight particularly in places like S-Guildwood and S-Centre. If  Sergio retires (York West) the NDP SHOULD target York West, they got 34% last provincial and if someone like Payne were to run again, she might win (trustee trend). Oshawa will forever be on the NDPs radar... they might be salivating more now, but one can hope I'm going to put Etobicoke North in there too, long shot for sure BUT the demographics work better for the NDP, they won 21% (only 3 points behind the tories) in 2011 prov. Its another riding both the PCs and NDP could win. BUT would need a lot of work to win over, with strong candidates (for the NDP someone like Cadigia Ali or Mohamed Boudjenane)
The rest of the province, i think the Liberals are sinking fast (outside of eastern ON/Ottawa that is). The North, I think they can kiss Thunder Bays and Sault Ste. Marie good bye to the NDP (but SSM has been known to buck trends). I think we will see more NDP/PC battles in places where the NDP have begun to invest (SW like Huron-Bruce, and Chatham-Kent-Essex)

Anywho... Toronto Centre federal by-election: Linda McQuaig is jumping in to the NDP race. Thats two high profile (Linda being the much higher profile candidate) journalists for the NDP, and one for the Liberals... do journalist love TOCentre or something
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/08/06/columnist_linda_mcquaig_enters_ndp_race_in_toronto.html

[RogueBeaver]

Here's 308's take on TO, basically a deep-dive on what Tommy said.

[lilTommy]

Also found a link to Bourassa candidates:

"Running for the NDP in Bourassa now are both their 2011 candidate, translater Julie Demers, and a PSAC regional vice-president, Haitian-born Larry Rousseau..."
-- If it becomes a battle between Dubourg and Laraque; with either of these candidates for the NDP it will be a heavy Mulcair lead/focused campaign (neither are "star" candidates, in my opinion)

Also quickly mentions Linda McQuiag entering the TOCentre NDP race.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2013/08/more-by-election-candidates-set-to-announce/

[DL]

Regrading Bourassa - fwiw, the riding is about 15% Haitian - just about the most Haitian riding in Canada - but that still leaves 85% of the riding that is NOT Haitian. If the Greens run Laraque (Haitian descent) and the Liberals run an MNA from a nearby riding who is also Haitian - all things being equal maybe the NDP is better off being just about the only party running a non-Haitian candidate (ie: Julie Demers)...she might also have a better chance of attracting what's left of the BQ vote there.

[RogueBeaver]

Bourassa: LPC nomination meeting Sept. 8.

TO Centre: Already Grits whom I follow on Twitter are disseminating some McQuaig quotes they see as controversial, notably on the Mideast. Dippers are promoting her as more substantive and experience than Freeland on their shared policy interest.

[lilTommy]

Bourassa: LPC nomination meeting Sept. 8.

TO Centre: Already Grits whom I follow on Twitter are disseminating some McQuaig quotes they see as controversial, notably on the Mideast. Dippers are promoting her as more substantive and experience than Freeland on their shared policy interest.

Dippers (we) are doing the same thing to Freeland though, especially calling her out for not being progressive, the new Iggy, etc (Erin Weir - progressive economic forum site)

It happens, particularly between the NDP/Liberals cause were basically swimming in the same pond (in the urban areas, were most of the chatter happens)

In Bourassa - Isn't their also a large Italian population? or no, i know St.Leonard-St.Michel has a huge one but i'd figure there would be spill over.
The NDP will most likely take BQ votes (but so will the Greens too perhaps) i'd say 10% is what they will get roughly, since they wont be running the leader or any strong candidate from what were seeing.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ MNA Emmanuel Dubourg is quitting his Viau riding to run in Bourassa.

[Hatman 🍁]

And the dominoes begin to fall.

Wonder why the NDP are attracting so many strong candidates for a riding like Toronto Centre. I have trouble seeing them win there. But, I suppose all the party has to do is show potential candidates a map of the city, and show them what doesn't belong.

[adma]

Wonder why the NDP are attracting so many strong candidates for a riding like Toronto Centre. I have trouble seeing them win there.

In a post-Orange Crush era, things have changed.  (Or, for that matter, in a post-Kim-Campbell era--at least insofar as post-1993, the NDP went from eternal distant-thirddom to being a second-place party more often than not.  An even bolder version of that curious urban-Toronto dynamic is how Parkdale-High Park went from a Grit-Tory seat to a Grit-NDP seat.)

And another reason for the plethora of strong candidates: banking on future redistribution creating more "viable" seats.

[Poirot]

PLQ MNA Emmanuel Dubourg is quitting his Viau riding to run in Bourassa.

It is a good financial move for him. He will get one hundred thousand dollars in severance allowance since the assembly hasn't voted yet to abolish it in cases of voluntary departure between elections. When he is elected in a few months he will have a higher salary as federal mp.

[Hatman 🍁]

Viau, another terribly named riding. Should be Saint-Michel. The entire riding consists of that one neighbourhood.

[Poirot]

That is what you get for naming ridings after people. Maybe at the time it was named, Viau boulevard was actually passing through the riding but it if was for the person the street might have been a factor. Today the boulevard is a few streets to the east of the riding.

In Bourassa - Isn't their also a large Italian population? or no, i know St.Leonard-St.Michel has a huge one but i'd figure there would be spill over.
The NDP will most likely take BQ votes (but so will the Greens too perhaps) i'd say 10% is what they will get roughly, since they wont be running the leader or any strong candidate from what were seeing.

There is an Italian population in Bourassa. In a list of number of people of Italian origin by Montreal borough, Montréal-Nord (which is most of Bourassa federal riding) was ranked fourth. The two big ones are Saint-Léonard and Rivière-des-Prairies.

I found this map of Italian concentration in Montreal area (map 1 on the page).
http://www.panoramitalia.com/en/life-people/traditions/fun-facts-montreal-italians/1940/

[RogueBeaver]

Merv Tweed is resigning as MP for Brandon-Souris to take a railway presidency.