Canadian by-elections, 2013

[lilTommy]

Outside of Wascana, Saskatchewan is a no-man's land for the federal Liberals as well.

Would you not agree that's more of a "Goodale" vote, rather then a Liberal vote?

[Hatman 🍁]

Outside of Wascana, Saskatchewan is a no-man's land for the federal Liberals as well.

Would you not agree that's more of a "Goodale" vote, rather then a Liberal vote?

'tis

[lilTommy]

So Liberal funny business going on in London West?

http://london.ctvnews.ca/polling-firm-allegedly-misidentifying-london-west-ndp-candidate-1.1378578

The polling firm is PCG National Research? anyone hear of them? they obviously haven't heard of the NDP candidate

"He also says the firm’s subsidiary company, Prime Contact, is working for the London West Liberals this week providing voters with information on where and when they can vote"
... You can see why some are saying its more Liberal dirty tactics.

[lilTommy]

Todd Ross will seek the Liberal party nomination.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1202033/media-advisory-todd-ross-to-seek-liberal-party-of-canada-nomination-in-toronto-centre

not sure who he is, but his site lists that he has a serious community organization CV. Also a past regional VP with the OLP.
 

[adma]

not sure who he is, but his site lists that he has a serious community organization CV. Also a past regional VP with the OLP.

Sounds insider-hack enough to leave a Jennifer Hollett salivating...

[Hatman 🍁]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

[MaxQue]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

Who cares? I'm pretty sure than OLP will heavilly campaign on Wynne in Church/Wesselley.

[DL]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

Todd Ross no great shakes but he's not totally white. He's Metis and FWIW he's also openly gay. His main claim to fame is that he was George Smitherman's chief of staff or EA or something like that for several years and apparently they had a major falling out - meaning that if Smitherman decides to run for the nomination he will be running against his former top aid.

[adma]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

Who cares? I'm pretty sure than OLP will heavilly campaign on Wynne in Church/Wesselley.

This is for the federal nomination.  (You're forgiven.)

[lilTommy]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

Who cares? I'm pretty sure than OLP will heavilly campaign on Wynne in Church/Wesselley.

This is for the federal nomination.  (You're forgiven.)

So they will be running on Justin's good looks and fabulous hair... no policy ofcourse

I did read into that he appeared gay (by the ":track record") and metis, so hes not the standard old white guy; but for TOcentre, being gay is like being the old white guy. The MP/MPP has been a gay man since 2004 (Graham, minus Rae but hes very gay friendly) and 2003 (Smithermann and now Murray)

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has Holyday leading in EL 47-40, Young leading in Ottawa South 48-38. Grits still lead in SG 38-32, with Giambrone back at 21. Winning EL would of course end the Tories' decade-long shutout in TO.

[DL]

Forum has Holyday leading in EL 47-40, Young leading in Ottawa South 48-38. Grits still lead in SG 38-32, with Giambrone back at 21. Winning EL would of course end the Tories' decade-long shutout in TO.

Actually the PCs lead 48-34 in Ottawa South. It's interesting that for all the half baked theories about so called toe splitting on the left, these polls indicate the opposite. In Etobicoke Lakeshore it seems like Holyday gains ground as the bottom falls out of NDP support. In Ottawa South the PCs are way ahead while NDP support has crashed to 12%. Clearly people who want to cast a protest vote are rallying behind whoever they see as the stronger opposition candidate and the NDP drop in those seats is NOT helping the Liberals at all. In contrast, the Liberals lead in Scarborough Guildwood where Giambrone is at a very respectable 21%....I have to think that if the NDP ran a no-name candidate instead of Giambrone, they would be looking at an Etobicoke-Lakeshore style result and would be in single digits. I can't wait to see the numbers from Windsor and London...my guess is that the NDP will lead both of those

[RogueBeaver]

Going 1/5 would be rather embarrassing for Wynne.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yikes at the Ottawa South numbers. Might explain why I've gotten the feeling the campaign has disappeared as of yet.

I haven't been around the riding much, but I have yet to see an NDP sign on private property save for my sign which I found laying in the grass that I've put in my 15th floor window that nobody can see

Kind of sad. Bronwyn was such a good candidate. It will be interesting to see the Tories win. It's almost ... dare I say it ... a nice feeling to think about not having a Liberal MPP.

[Hash]

Ugh this country continues to be horrible. Yeah, go ahead morons, vote PC. Premier Tim Hudak will be awesome, I can't wait.

[DL]

According to this Star article, the final polls in London West and Windsor-Tecumseh point to a total MELT-DOWN for the Ontario Liberals. In London West the PCs lead the NDP 36% to 31% with Coran of the Liberals at a catastrophically low 17% and with 10% for "Others" (ie: Al Gretzky) and 5% for Greens. In Windsor its even worse with the NDP at 55%, the PCs at 20% and the Liberals at just 15% in the seat that Dwight Duncan held for years!

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/07/26/ontario_byelections_the_issues_the_players_and_the_polls.html

[RogueBeaver]

So if the momentum continues, plausibly the opposition parties can sweep this batch. Bwahaahaa

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be nice if the NDP could win London West, but I would just be happy to see Coran finish 3rd.

It seems like for the NDP to really "win" these by-elections they're going to have to pull off 2 wins. Winning 1 may be a gain, but in the game of politics, winning one is such a given that it would just be breaking even.  Same goes for the Tories too I think, except no one seat is a given, and they can just as easily win 3.

[RogueBeaver]

In federal news, journalist Chrystia Freeland will seek the LPC nomination in Toronto Centre.

[RogueBeaver]

Delacourt said on Twitter that Smitherman told her to watch HuffPo over the next 48 hours about his plans for TO Centre... could we see 2 big-name Grits duke it out?

[DL]

Delacourt said on Twitter that Smitherman told her to watch HuffPo over the next 48 hours about his plans for TO Centre... could we see 2 big-name Grits duke it out?

Hmm...I wonder he would be coy and say to watch HuffPo if the story was going to be that he would NOT run? Then again the other candidate in the race right now is Todd Ross who used to be Smitherman's top aide...until they had some major falling out (seems like everyone who works with George ends up on his enemies list before long). Maybe Smitherman will announce he supports Freeland as a way of putting a bullet between the eyes of his one time close associate?

[RogueBeaver]

Weird Star article about sharpening Tory knifes were Hudak to be swept. This time next week these people will be gushing, so meh.

[DL]

Weird Star article about sharpening Tory knifes were Hudak to be swept. This time next week these people will be gushing, so meh.

It is weird given that its in the same paper that trumpets poll numbers pointing to a PC triumph in the by elections. The real story ought to be what happens to Kathleen Wynne if she gets shellacked in the by elections?

[RogueBeaver]

For one thing, whatever slim chance there was of a fall election is now gone- and Horwath won't change her mind on trigger-pulling. What can they do to Wynne? She's been leader for barely 6 months. Round of grumbling aside, though they should really be grumbling at McGuinty.

[DL]

I would agree that whatever chance there ever was of a Wynne-engineered fall election is now gone...its not inconceivable that both the PCs and NDP could detect blood in the water and bring down the government in the fall - though i think the NDP is more likely to make more demands and bide their time.