2004 Democratic Primary

[© tweed]

I'm under 20. No more information will be given

And I don't think that knowing more about U.S politics than PD is much of an achievment

I'll find you age somewhere.

[jravnsbo]

great site, going right into the favorites column!

good job!

Speaking of statistics that may effect the election - check out the unemployement rate by state and its change over the year:
http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstch.htm

I think this has a strong effect on certain swing states, though all states may be so improved by November it won't matter.

[jravnsbo]

Check out the next lady you can add on to the list as members of the HOuse.  From the great state of Kentucky!


http://nrcc.org/cgi-data/news/files/103.shtml

Alice Forgy Kerr

[ABD]

I agree, everything points to another Labour win in 2005. Labour are unpopular, but not so unpopular that people would kick them out in favour of the most hated politician of the 1990's! (Howard).

Indeed.  Remember though, that we still don't know who Michael Howard will face at the next general election (I remain a dissenter here on the electoral appeal of Gordon Brown), and you're right - Howard has a big task ahead of him.  But don't forget, his namesake here in Australia was the deeply (politically) unsexy "Mr 16%" during the '80s... and John Howard will now probably finish as Australia's second longest serving PM when he goes (he's already no.3).

Possible message?  The souffle can rise twice.

Or maybe not. : )

[ABD]

"Leftie" ain't exactly a damning term.

Sorry, I'll admit I am quite sensitive about the term. It just reminds me of when The Sun were at their most slanderous. More of a connotation thing.

Cool, no worries mate.  : )

[English]

I agree, everything points to another Labour win in 2005. Labour are unpopular, but not so unpopular that people would kick them out in favour of the most hated politician of the 1990's! (Howard).

Indeed.  Remember though, that we still don't know who Michael Howard will face at the next general election (I remain a dissenter here on the electoral appeal of Gordon Brown), and you're right - Howard has a big task ahead of him.  But don't forget, his namesake here in Australia was the deeply (politically) unsexy "Mr 16%" during the '80s... and John Howard will now probably finish as Australia's second longest serving PM when he goes (he's already no.3).

Possible message?  The souffle can rise twice.

Or maybe not. : )

As a card carrying Tory, can you please explain why the Tory party did not elect Ken Clarke as leader? If they had I'm sure Blair would be looking at a 15% lag in the polls rather than a 5% lead! Anyone would think they like losing elections!!

[Gustaf]

Been away for a while, so just catching up:

What I meant by good job with reference to Peter Hain is that (at the time) the EU Constitution looked a rather dangerous prospect for Britain, and therefore Peter Hain would not be viable as he negoitiated it on the UKs behalf.

I see Milburn as the longer term successor to Blair, however, I do wonder whether Labour could elect another Blairite. Brown is still waiting in the shadows, and if anything were to happen to Blair (politically or health), then he would take over. I dont see Estelle Morris as a viable candidate, especially after the A-levels fiasco (I had to live thro' that, didnt really endear me to her). Stephen Twigg is an intereting thought, although I think the country may need twenty more years to be ready for a gay PM (not that is a good thing).

Whoever has been reading the Mail ought to stop buying it, it just encourages the right wing lunatics to print more of their crap.

Oh, so the Hain comment was ironic, then? I thought you literally meant that he had done a good job with the EU-constitution, which seemed odd.

[Gustaf]

I agree, everything points to another Labour win in 2005. Labour are unpopular, but not so unpopular that people would kick them out in favour of the most hated politician of the 1990's! (Howard).

Indeed.  Remember though, that we still don't know who Michael Howard will face at the next general election (I remain a dissenter here on the electoral appeal of Gordon Brown), and you're right - Howard has a big task ahead of him.  But don't forget, his namesake here in Australia was the deeply (politically) unsexy "Mr 16%" during the '80s... and John Howard will now probably finish as Australia's second longest serving PM when he goes (he's already no.3).

Possible message?  The souffle can rise twice.

Or maybe not. : )

As a card carrying Tory, can you please explain why the Tory party did not elect Ken Clarke as leader? If they had I'm sure Blair would be looking at a 15% lag in the polls rather than a 5% lead! Anyone would think they like losing elections!!

I would guess, for the same reason why Dems will nominate Howard Dean or the GOP nominated Goldwater in 1964...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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I like Nova Scotia a lot as well(my second cousin lived there before moving to BC(!) then Manitoba), and in many ways the Atlantic provinces can be seen as a northern extension of Appalachia. The problems are depressingly similer...

The NDP dominate the Halifax area, and are a strong second party in Cape Breton(and if Martin acts the way I think he might...)
The rest of the province, the "Mainland" is fishing territory, and although the NDP do better there than in similer areas in the rest of Canada, they are relativly weak in the Mainland.

Saskatchwan has a long tradition of left wing farmers, and the NDP pushed the Liberals into third there in 2000!

[jravnsbo]

realpolitik, can you do the members of the TEXAS delegation?  That might be helpful with the changing district lines.  Thx.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Texas is a bit of a mystery to me(South? no. West? no. South West? no. etc), but I'll give it a go tomorrow.

[jravnsbo]

sounds good thanks.  It was part of the confederacy, but because of its size it covers many regions.  SW in the west, Midwest int eh north and South by culture and confederacy heritage.  

[NHPolitico]

NEW HAMPSHIRE (2)
1. Manchester
2. Concord-Granite

NH-1: Queen's City-Seacoast

I'll come up with something for NH-2 later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[names done like in France, which also has numbered districts etc]

One GOP congressman retired and was replaced by another. I don't know which one but will update list when I know.

This is part one: districts 1 to 6. When they are all done I'll do a composite list.

Texas

01. Texarkana=Max Sandlin D
02. Texas East=Jim Turner D
03. Dallas North=Sam Johnson R
04. Red River Valley=Ralph Hall D(R)
05. Dallas South=Jeb Hensarling R
06. Tarrent, Ellis=Joe Barton R

[jravnsbo]

thanks, reading lots about this and studying which ones are most at risk.  6 more DEm are said to be in trouble with Frost at the top of the list.

[names done like in France, which also has numbered districts etc]

One GOP congressman retired and was replaced by another. I don't know which one but will update list when I know.

This is part one: districts 1 to 6. When they are all done I'll do a composite list.

Texas

01. Texarkana=Max Sandlin D
02. Texas East=Jim Turner D
03. Dallas North=Sam Johnson R
04. Arkansas Valley=Ralph Hall D(R)
05. Dallas South=Jeb Hensarling R
06. Tarrent, Ellis=Joe Barton R

[opebo]

thanks jravnsbo,
I like bls.gov a lot.  Today it was announced that the unemployment rate nationally was down .2 percent to 5.7%, but job growth was supposedly weak.  I am pretty suspicious right now of the job growth number as the household survey seems more accurate.

[ABD]

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As a card carrying Tory, can you please explain why the Tory party did not elect Ken Clarke as leader? If they had I'm sure Blair would be looking at a 15% lag in the polls rather than a 5% lead! Anyone would think they like losing elections!!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I suppose there's the obvious one - Europe - but in truth I think there was a deeper one of which Europe was merely a symptom.  I'm not sure Clarke wanted the leadership to be a two-way conversation with the membership.  I think he saw it as him telling everyone what they were to believe and do, regardless of anyone else's views, and the members didn't like that idea much.  It's not much of a strategy when the electorate you have to convince is your own party membership!  

Who knows what would have happened if he had projected more of an image of wanting to connect with the membership more.

Some of Clarke's reported comments since 2001 have been interesting - I'm not sure he would have enjoyed being Opposition leader at all, actually.  And if he'd really wanted it in 2002-3, I think he would have expressed his views on Iraq differently.  I don't think he's demonstrated a hunger for the role.

[NHPolitico]

Wow, I've only had 3 wrong out of the last 50 some odd elections I've predicted and 2 of those 3 misses were in LA.

Never did care much for the state. Too much French influence!

I've decided to treat them like the Red Sox, except I like the Red Sox. I will predict no Republican statewide victories except in presidential races.  No matter how possible it seems, I now know that the state is hopeless.

[jravnsbo]

Real--got the rest of the Texas delegation yet?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

ECRI : 2004 is Off to a Great Start  

Every sector is now expanding at a rapid rate, the jobs picture is improving and the U.S. recovery is helping to pull the world along.  

The leading indicators for jobs have also turned smartly up, says the Economic Cycle Research Institute, meaning that "overall job growth is about to increase notably," despite its softness now.

http://businesscycle.com/showstory.php?storyID=609

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've almost got the next 5 done, sorry it's been a bit slow but it's exam time at the moment...
I've changed the name of Hall's seat after checking an atlas for the name of the river.

[DarthKosh]

I've almost got the next 5 done, sorry it's been a bit slow but it's exam time at the moment...
I've changed the name of Hall's seat after checking an atlas for the name of the river.

I'd wait on the names until the lines are finished.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The names are for the current map, not the DeLay map, as lots members have decided to stand down and/or don't know which seat to stand in.
At least one has no incumbent.

[jravnsbo]

Yes, I want the current ones, that way I can compare the people with new districts and see who is running vs who for the coming electiuons.

Thanks again real.

[jravnsbo]

good piece.  As you find good articles on economics, post em I enjoy them.

ECRI : 2004 is Off to a Great Start  

Every sector is now expanding at a rapid rate, the jobs picture is improving and the U.S. recovery is helping to pull the world along.  

The leading indicators for jobs have also turned smartly up, says the Economic Cycle Research Institute, meaning that "overall job growth is about to increase notably," despite its softness now.

http://businesscycle.com/showstory.php?storyID=609