2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The eastern border of Texas is Southern, but the rest of the state isn't.

The one part of Texas I can't place are Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and their attached legions of suburbs.
Are they completly unique?

[PD]

The eastern border of Texas is Southern, but the rest of the state isn't.

The one part of Texas I can't place are Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and their attached legions of suburbs.
Are they completly unique?

The only part of Texas that isn't Southern is the El Paso region and the Amarillo region. Trust me, I know. I don't know if you heard me earlier or not, but my mother was born and raised in Texas, and we go there AT LEAST once a month. Also, I have a ton of relatives there. So just consider it a Southern state, okay. It WAS a member of the Confederacy, you know.

[Justin]

What are the chances of the Conservatives either forming a government on thier own or forcing the Liberals into a coalition government?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Somewhere between none, nil, and 0% I'm afraid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Justin... the CPC have a fight on their hands... for second place.
They are not going to come close to beating Martin.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Weekly Leading Index Rises to ALL-TIME HIGH

01/23/2004  

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - A record number of new mortgage applications pushed a leading index of the U.S. economy to a new high, a report showed on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) rose to 133.1 in the week ended Jan. 16 compared with the preceding week's revised reading of 131.4. The most recent reading is an all-time high for the index.

The index's components reflected broad-based growth across the country's economy, particularly in the housing sector. On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that December housing starts rose at the quickest pace in nearly 20 years.

Separate ECRI indexes suggested that payroll growth will accelerate soon and inflation pressures will continue to remain low.

"This is a return to a 'Goldilocks' economy," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI, revisting a popular term during the late 199os describing U.S. economy's robust -- but not inflationary -- growth.

The annualized growth rate, a four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, broke a seven-week streak of declines and increased to 9.6 percent from a revised 8.9 percent.
 
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And don't forget, Q4 GDP numbers come out next week - more bad news for Dems!

[opebo]

Hey jmfcst,

Care to hazard a prediction of 4Q growth?  I'm guessing 6.2%.  That's just off the top of my head.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Hey jmfcst,

Care to hazard a prediction of 4Q growth?  I'm guessing 6.2%.  That's just off the top of my head.

I'd say 5.5% +/-1.5%

[jravnsbo]

when do the 4Q numbers come out?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

when do the 4Q numbers come out?

Fri, Jan 30th.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest Ipsos-Reid poll:

LPC 48%
CPC 19%
NDP 16%
BQ   10%
Grn   04%

And Ipsos-Reid has a right wing bias...

[© tweed]

Latest Ipsos-Reid poll:

LPC 48%
CPC 19%
NDP 16%
BQ   10%
Grn   04%

And Ipsos-Reid has a right wing bias...

The NDP could catch the progressive conservatives?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Mortgage rates reach 6-month low
 
30-year falls to 5.64%, 15-year to 4.95% and ARM to 3.56% with low rates seen through first half.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/22/pf/yourhome/q_weekly_rates/index.htm

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Leading indicators rise
 
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/22/news/economy/lei.reut/index.htm

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Jobless claims slip

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/22/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

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Housing starts hit 25-year high

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/21/news/economy/housing_starts/index.htm

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Demand for new mortgages hits record

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/21/news/economy/mortgage_apps.reut/index.htm

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

 I stand by what I said, the numbers you put out are what the WSJ and the likes of Kudlow spins, and I stand by what I have said, the problems I have listed. If you are not parroting spin, ok, but to me, it sounds almost identical to a collum Kudlow wrote recently. The serious economists I have read and the people I know who have been invested in 25+ years realise the warning signs of a economy that depends too much on fiscal stimulus, and too little on savings, and I trust these people far more than I trust the hype.

  Bury myself in my own words, are we not laying on a bit thick? I gave my opinion on 2004 twice allready

I was hoping for a .2 drop, but .1 is still progress.  Still coming along.

Unemployment did drop another .1 to 5.9%; so still going it he right direction.  Just not as fast as expected.

"Not as fast as expected"?!  

FYI - the unemployment rate was expected to be flat and remain at 6.0%, so the 5.9% was BETTER than expected.

We're cool.

But, notice how JNB has repeatedly refused to give an estimate on the current quarter (2003Q4).  LOL!  He loves to spout doom and gloom about the future, but he is unable to acknowledge current conditions.

Instead of saying, "Yeah, Q3 was excellent and Q4 is going to good, but...", he just can NOT bring himself to allow a single ray of sunshine to pass through his lips.

Sad.

This coming Friday, January 30th, everyone is going to know why JNB refused to give a prediction on 2003Q4 GDP!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This is a very good presentation by Macroeconomic Advisers, an extremely respected group:

http://www.missouriventureforum.org/Presentations/Prakken_1103.pdf

[JNB]

 You really like talking to yourself in this thread, dont you. Throw in enough fiscal stimulus with a combination of artifically low long term intrest rates due to Japan buying US debt to keep the Yen at depressed levels and China buying US debt to continue its currency peg to the dollar intact, combined with tax cuts that come with spending increases, you get a upward move in the economy.

   The way the economy has been stimulated in the last 3 years can not work forever, a political change in Japan would be enough to throw a wrech in the works as far as intrest rates are concerned. As for Sunshine JMC, I guess as I said before I am a realist, but I guess what passes today as conservatism(as far as the WSJ is concerned) is being blind and happy at what ever GOP propaganda is out there.

[Beet]

Assuming Asian countries put their dollar reserves in treasuries, thats a $1 trillion hole right there-- 10% of GDP owed to the outside.

[jravnsbo]

JNB- I read the economic articles and a while back asked him to post thema s he found good sites.  Some are very informative.  So he is not talking to no one, just posting.

 You really like talking to yourself in this thread, dont you. Throw in enough fiscal stimulus with a combination of artifically low long term intrest rates due to Japan buying US debt to keep the Yen at depressed levels and China buying US debt to continue its currency peg to the dollar intact, combined with tax cuts that come with spending increases, you get a upward move in the economy.

   The way the economy has been stimulated in the last 3 years can not work forever, a political change in Japan would be enough to throw a wrech in the works as far as intrest rates are concerned. As for Sunshine JMC, I guess as I said before I am a realist, but I guess what passes today as conservatism(as far as the WSJ is concerned) is being blind and happy at what ever GOP propaganda is out there.

[Gustaf]

Assuming Asian countries put their dollar reserves in treasuries, thats a $1 trillion hole right there-- 10% of GDP owed to the outside.

Italy's national debt is 110% of GDP...

[Beet]

There's a difference between national debt and debt  owed to foreigners. The U.S. national debt is about 60% of GDP, but what percentage of that is owed to foreigners I don't know.

[jravnsbo]

OUCH!!  can you imagine that here, ow.  Hey where is the mob to knock off some of those creditors!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Italy's national debt is 110% of GDP...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[JNB]

  He brought up my name from a post over a hundred posts ago. What I find ironic is those who screem like schoolgirls yelling "Free Market" have been helped by forces that are anything but the free market. From runaway spending by the Bush admin to Asian nations and their currency interventions, the economy is more controlled now that it was in the days of FDR and LBJ.

   In any event, consumers because of the fact their homes have c ontinued to go up in value because of artificlaly low intrest rates will continue to spend. Though, and yes this is off topic, can Bush keep his conservative base intact because of anger over wreckless spending and immigration? Over at Free Republic, a good representation of grass roots conservatism, many are quite angry. But that should be the subject of a new thread.

[© tweed]

Assuming Asian countries put their dollar reserves in treasuries, thats a $1 trillion hole right there-- 10% of GDP owed to the outside.

Italy's national debt is 110% of GDP...

That makes our debt look small.

[Gustaf]

Assuming Asian countries put their dollar reserves in treasuries, thats a $1 trillion hole right there-- 10% of GDP owed to the outside.

Italy's national debt is 110% of GDP...

That makes our debt look small.

Belgium and Greece have similar debts, all 100%+. Kind of scary, especially considering the fact that many of these countries have both budget deficits and stagnant, or even falling, GDP.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You really like talking to yourself in this thread, dont you.

No, simply pointing out that it seems quite odd that you can give predictions for 2004 but were unable to give a prediction for 2003Q4.  Would anyone listen to the predictions of a weatherman who couldn’t tell you the current conditions?

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<<Throw in enough fiscal stimulus with a combination of artifically low long term intrest rates due to Japan buying US debt to keep the Yen at depressed levels>>

Let me try to explain this to you very carefully:  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) does NOT buy US debt to boost the dollar because relative lower US rates depresses the dollar.  What is going on is that the BOJ is selling yen to buy dollars on the open market, thus increasing the supply of yen while lowering the supply of dollars in an effort to boost the dollar’s value.

As a result, the BOJ is holding a large amount of dollars with which it then turns around and buys US debt (purchased in dollars) in order to earn interest on all the dollars the BOJ is holding.

So, the effect on the value on the dollar of the BOJ purchase of dollars (increasing the dollar’s value) is partly being offset by the BOJ buying US debt (decreasing the dollar’s value).

If you’ll take a look at the pdf link I posted yesterday, you’ll find that the dollar’s value is still well above the level of the mid 1990’s.  In fact the bleeding of US manufacturing is closely tied to the sharp spike in the dollar’s value during the late 1990’s.