Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zanas]

I once took a one-morning-long nap in a toilet booth in the Ministry of Social Affairs in Den Haag. Long story that involves lots of whisky and cannabis. Fun times.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Will there be a referendum there to leave the EU?  I know there's been talk of it.

[DavidB.]

Will there be a referendum there to leave the EU?  I know there's been talk of it.

No, because no government is ever going to organize one.

[Dutch Conservative]

VVD: While the party will undoubtedly lose seats due to the government's unpopularity, the VVD's position is actually not as bad as it looks. A big seat loss looks inevitable, but if I had to place a bet on which party will end up the largest, I would say it is going to be the VVD again (it could also be the PVV, but I still think it's just not actually going to happen).

(...)

Again, it is highly relevant to note that a lot can and will change. Tactical voting might change the picture altogether for some of the parties. But these are the situations in which the parties find themselves for now.

I agree with this. I do think it's still possible for the VVD to win some seats. Rutte is still pretty popular. At this moment that party is getting the credits for the state of the economy, wich is (on the surface) pretty OK. I think much will depend on who is going to lead the PvdA. When it's Samsom that party will totally collapse. With Aboutaleb or Asscher things might go differently. Also, I know quit a few CDA-voters who turned to VVD last time. I don't see them coming back to the CDA. That party just has a huge problem: poor leadership and an unclear course.

Much can happen between now and march as you say, but when I had to gamble now I would bet on a coalition of VVD, D'66 and CDA, with if necessary a fourth party like ChristenUnie or GroenLinks (seems unlikely).

Great overview btw!

[DavidB.]

Thanks. Aboutaleb won't lead the PvdA, he ruled it out already. So that leaves us with Samsom (will definitely compete in the primary), Asscher (may or may not compete), or someone else (who would have to be more than a little masochistic).

I wouldn't be surprised if the next government will be a minority government again, based on a core of VVD-CDA-D66 with various parties (CU, SGP are obvious potential partners) backing them up from the outside, on the basis of various deals. But it all depends on the seat distribution, and we all thought the coalition would include 3+ parties before the last election too, until everything changed. If, however, the field remains as fragmented as is currently the case, coalition formation will be an outright disaster.

[Zinneke]

Will there be a referendum there to leave the EU?  I know there's been talk of it.

Nexit would destroy a Dutch economy that is reliant on doing Germany's dirty work in services and exporting to there too. It would be far, far worse than brexit unless Germany decided to leave too. With London potentially losing some financial services, the Randstad is perfectly placed to take over given the high levels of English proficiency, education, and tax exemptions and legal loopholes the Hollander cliques from law school fraternities like to advertise.

Like every other right-wing populist in Europe, what the average Dutch eurosceptic wants is all the benefits of Europe without the drawbacks - these people tend to vote VVD - and then the Wilders-voting tokkies who think its an islamo-bolshevik conspiracy to destroy their country.

What they could be is the new UK if Rutte gets another term. He will go to every conference as the petulant child instead of Cameron. He was always David's best buddy at the council meetings. And he will try to siphon PVV votes as much as possible, because he can't go left without angering his party.  

[DavidB.]

Will there be a referendum there to leave the EU?  I know there's been talk of it.

Nexit would destroy a Dutch economy that is reliant on doing Germany's dirty work in services and exporting to there too. It would be far, far worse than brexit unless Germany decided to leave too. With London potentially losing some financial services, the Randstad is perfectly placed to take over given the high levels of English proficiency, education, and tax exemptions and legal loopholes the Hollander cliques from law school fraternities like to advertise.

Like every other right-wing populist in Europe, what the average Dutch eurosceptic wants is all the benefits of Europe without the drawbacks - these people tend to vote VVD - and then the Wilders-voting tokkies who think its an islamo-bolshevik conspiracy to destroy their country.

What they could be is the new UK if Rutte gets another term. He will go to every conference as the petulant child instead of Cameron. He was always David's best buddy at the council meetings. And he will try to siphon PVV votes as much as possible, because he can't go left.  

[/opinion]

Also, implying tokkies know what bolsheviks are...

[Zinneke]

Will there be a referendum there to leave the EU?  I know there's been talk of it.

Nexit would destroy a Dutch economy that is reliant on doing Germany's dirty work in services and exporting to there too. It would be far, far worse than brexit unless Germany decided to leave too. With London potentially losing some financial services, the Randstad is perfectly placed to take over given the high levels of English proficiency, education, and tax exemptions and legal loopholes the Hollander cliques from law school fraternities like to advertise.

Like every other right-wing populist in Europe, what the average Dutch eurosceptic wants is all the benefits of Europe without the drawbacks - these people tend to vote VVD - and then the Wilders-voting tokkies who think its an islamo-bolshevik conspiracy to destroy their country.

What they could be is the new UK if Rutte gets another term. He will go to every conference as the petulant child instead of Cameron. He was always David's best buddy at the council meetings. And he will try to siphon PVV votes as much as possible, because he can't go left.  

[/opinion]

Also, implying tokkies know what bolsheviks are...

Speaking of opinions, what is yours on an ethnic minority importing their ''own'' conflict from ''back home'' (i.e a broken country ruled a deep state) into the host society? This should be your area of expertise after all...

[DavidB.]

Will there be a referendum there to leave the EU?  I know there's been talk of it.

Nexit would destroy a Dutch economy that is reliant on doing Germany's dirty work in services and exporting to there too. It would be far, far worse than brexit unless Germany decided to leave too. With London potentially losing some financial services, the Randstad is perfectly placed to take over given the high levels of English proficiency, education, and tax exemptions and legal loopholes the Hollander cliques from law school fraternities like to advertise.

Like every other right-wing populist in Europe, what the average Dutch eurosceptic wants is all the benefits of Europe without the drawbacks - these people tend to vote VVD - and then the Wilders-voting tokkies who think its an islamo-bolshevik conspiracy to destroy their country.

What they could be is the new UK if Rutte gets another term. He will go to every conference as the petulant child instead of Cameron. He was always David's best buddy at the council meetings. And he will try to siphon PVV votes as much as possible, because he can't go left. 

[/opinion]

Also, implying tokkies know what bolsheviks are...

Speaking of opinions, what is yours on an ethnic minority importing their ''own'' conflict from ''back home'' (i.e a broken country ruled a deep state) into the host society? This should be your area of expertise after all...

Excuse you?

[DavidB.]

Let's get back to discussing Dutch politics after this very weird comment.

VNL announced Jan Roos will be its new party leader. Jan Roos is known for his provocative journalism for public broadcaster PowNed as well as for political shock blog GeenStijl. He was one of the main figures in the campaign for the referendum and against the EU Association Agreement. GeenStijl and Roos cooperated closely with VNL during that campaign, so his move was widely anticipated. I cancelled my VNL membership over this.

It doesn't seem likely that the party will obtain any seats in the coming election, since small parties aren't invited to the big telly debates and barely get any media attention during the campaign unless they do very well in the polls, which isn't the case for VNL (they're at 0). Niche parties like SGP, PvdD, 50Plus and DENK can manage without such attention, but VNL relies on it: if it doesn't get it, their target voters will just vote for the PVV (or the VVD), which is exactly what is going to happen.

[Zinneke]

I was referring to the ongoing tensions amongst Turkish minorities in the Netherlands, and the intervention of the Turkish ambassador, who 'overstepped' his mark according to the Mayor of Rotterdam, who has received backing from the CDA and SP on the matter. In Belgium too an SP.a member got expelled for being an outspoken pro-Erdogan supporter and is thinking of setting a similar party to DENK. The N-VA condemned Turkish people for bringing in their politics to the country, all while preparing legislation for Belgian tax exiles abroad to be able to vote!

Of course, in an ideal world, De Wever is right. Ethnic minorities should not bring their conflicts from back home with them into the country and onto our streets. But, then again, as evidenced by the toxic Israel-Palestine debate, parties are more than willing to adopt stances to please such minorities - some of whom have never even set foot in the region - in order to win votes. This is where we can hear your expertise, DavidB, since you seem to judge candidates, whether in the US or Netherlands, based on how strongly they represent the Israeli right-wing's interests...

[DavidB.]

Are you seriously doubling down on this? It was perfectly clear what you were referring to, no need to waste any words on making explicit your implications, which are frankly kind of racist -- it doesn't exactly look good on you. My comment on DENK's electoral chances was purely factual... You may disagree with my outlook, but your personalized comments are clearly uncalled for (and your assumptions on my views regarding Turkish Dutch people having opinions of the political unrest in Turkey are 100% wrong, which makes it even sadder) and you know it. I urge you to keep your issues with the views you think I have outside this thread. Preferably outside this forum too. Thanks.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So is DANK an Islamist party or merely a Turkish minority interest group?

[DavidB.]

So is DANK an Islamist party or merely a Turkish minority interest group?

Islamist they are not, but obviously they support pro-Muslim policies. They will probably be primarily  a Turkish party (especially when it comes to the initial voter base), but pretend not to be solely a Turkish party and there is some merit to that: from their voting behavior and their remarks in parliament one can tell they try to advocate all "ethnic minority interests", including Moroccans and Surinamese (but, needless to say, excluding Armenians, Kurds, and Jews). For example, they also want a museum on Dutch colonial crimes, oppose Dutch Krampus "Zwarte Piet", and asked parliamentary questions when "driving while black" issues occurred. Whether this attempt to include Surinamese is genuine or simply based on electoral calculations is not entirely clear to me, but I get the impression that it may well be the former option.

[Zinneke]

Are you seriously doubling down on this? It was perfectly clear what you were referring to, no need to waste any words on making your implications, which are frankly kind of racist,

Where on earth did you get the implication that I was being racist towards ethnic minorities? I'm not saying all ethnic minorities do this, I'm saying some people from ethnic minorities bring their home politics into ours, and they have a right to do this, but as De Wever says it can create problems, like the ones we are seeing right now in Belgium and the Netherlands. Here's another example of that : http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/08/one-in-five-children-withdrawn-from-amsterdam-school-linked-to-turkish-gulen-movement/

The issue had not been brought up yet so I brought it up. Obviously with the tong-in-cheek reference to Israel-Palestine and your stance on it. I thought it was a fairly harmless comment though. I guess I was mistaken and I'm sorry.

[DavidB.]

Okay, let's unravel this "miscommunication" then. It started with this post:

Speaking of opinions, what is yours on an ethnic minority importing their ''own'' conflict from ''back home'' (i.e a broken country ruled a deep state) into the host society? This should be your area of expertise after all...

I will believe you if you say you intended to make a harmless, tongue-in-cheek comment, aimed at starting a discussion about the issue of tensions between Turkish Dutch communities in the Netherlands, but it seemed as if the entire point of this post revolved around making a gotcha at my expense. Apparently, I am an ethnic minority bothering my "host society" (interesting implications here) with "my" ethnic conflict. Okay.

Moreover, most people view something like that as undesirable, so it clearly looks like an accusation. I also thought, though, to be fair, cannot substantiate this, that you seemed to accuse me of hypocrisy by opposing DENK, yet supporting politicians who are pro-Israel.

Then your clarification:

I was referring to the ongoing tensions amongst Turkish minorities in the Netherlands, and the intervention of the Turkish ambassador, who 'overstepped' his mark according to the Mayor of Rotterdam, who has received backing from the CDA and SP on the matter. (...) Of course, in an ideal world, De Wever is right. Ethnic minorities should not bring their conflicts from back home with them into the country and onto our streets. But, then again, as evidenced by the toxic Israel-Palestine debate, parties are more than willing to adopt stances to please such minorities - some of whom have never even set foot in the region - in order to win votes. This is where we can hear your expertise, DavidB, since you seem to judge candidates, whether in the US or Netherlands, based on how strongly they represent the Israeli right-wing's interests...

While it is still not explicit, it seems like you accuse me of being hypocritical. My reasons to dislike DENK include me thinking their policies would be harmful for the Netherlands and for my Jewish community. My reasons to dislike DENK do not include them being Turkish, or them having opinions of the unrest in Turkey in itself. I think it is legitimate for Turkish Dutch people to support a party they think best represents their views on this issue, and I think it is legitimate for a political party to represent these people. If there were 300.000 Jews in the Netherlands and I would think my community's wants and needs were being ignored by the existing political parties, I would absolutely form a party, represent my community's views and defend their interests. This is what DENK does, and it is all perfectly legitimate. I abhor many of their views (though agree with a few too), but it's a disagreement similar to my disagreements with, for instance, D66 or the SP. No double standard here.

By contrast, you think "ethnic minorities should not bring their conflicts from back home with them into the country and onto our streets", which, indeed, makes explicit your accusation at my address -- this is, after all, apparently my "area of expertise". I disagree with you (at least when it comes to the non-violent part of "bringing the conflict to the country"; of course intimidation, violence have no place here). I think it is fully legitimate for a Turkish Dutch voter to vote for DENK if they support Erdogan and disapprove of Dutch or EU foreign policy on the issue (even if I may disagree with this opinion). I think it is fully legitimate for a Kurdish Dutch voter to vote for the SP if they find it important that the PKK be removed from the list of terror organizations (even if I may disagree with this opinion). I think it is also fully legitimate for a Jewish Dutch voter to vote for the SGP if they think it is important that the Netherlands stop actively promoting a two-state solution. I don't think any of these motivations are intrinsically less legitimate than an ethnic Dutch person voting for the VVD to prevent the tax deduction on mortgages from being scrapped. I don't think minorities should be required to leave at home the issues they care about when they vote, and vote on the basis of Approved White Issues instead. I would call that attitude implicitly racist, because minorities' concerns are considered less legitimate than the concerns of the Dutch (or Belgian, or w/e) majority. To be fair, in your last comment you acknowledge people's "right to do this", but it still comes across as if you accuse me of voting on the basis of issues (or rather one issue) you consider to be illegitimate to base one's vote on. And I disagree with that. (It is also not true that I solely vote on the basis of Israel, even if it is certainly very important for me. I know a few -- much less integrated -- people who do, though, and I don't find that to be illegitimate. I see the philosophical case of why it would be problematic, but as long as this is only applied to minorities, I think one would be cherry-picking.)

So, these comments of yours, essentially based on my ethnicity and voting behavior, basically came out of nowhere, and I hope the above clarification helps you understand why they looked pretty hostile to me.

As for the issue itself: it is very unfortunate. I hope tensions will calm down and kids will be able to go to school in quiet again. I don't think there is much more to say.

[DavidB.]

The SP came up with their list for the 2017 election. It still has to be approved by the party membership, but it can be expected that not much will change. 9 out of the current 15 MPs are back on the list (all in the top 17). Most prominent leaving MPs are Harry van Bommel, Foreign Affairs spokesman and leader of the SP campaign in the 2016 Ukraine referendum (and, if I'm not mistaken, the 2005 SP campaign against the European Constitution), Sharon Gesthuizen, whose attempt to beat Ron Meyer and become party chair was not appreciated by the party elite, and Paul Ulenbelt, who has been an SP MP since 2006.

The most prominent new candidate is Lilian Marijnissen on #3, the daughter of former party leader (1994-2008) Jan Marijnissen. She's supposed to be a big political talent, but I'm not entirely sure if she really is, or that her father simply wants her to be. I guess we will find out, because she's sure to be elected. Another new candidate is Sandra Beckerman (#6), SP leader in Groningen province who fought against the government's (now annulled) decision to continue drilling up a lot of gas despite inhabitants' concerns over the ongoing problems with earthquakes and, by doing so, made the SP the largest party in Groningen in 2015. Third highest newcomer on the list is Cem Lacin (#10), who used to work for worker's union FNV.

Emile Roemer will lead the SP once again.

[Dutch Conservative]

This is where we can hear your expertise, DavidB, since you seem to judge candidates, whether in the US or Netherlands, based on how strongly they represent the Israeli right-wing's interests...

This is a completely different case and not a good comparison. Ofcourse people can support a party for certain minority issues. Imo the problem starts when those people have a double nationality. It's unacceptable that Turkish law would we forced upon Dutch citizens.

But, then again, as evidenced by the toxic Israel-Palestine debate, parties are more than willing to adopt stances to please such minorities - some of whom have never even set foot in the region - in order to win votes.

Can you give a specific example of this?

[DavidB.]

Oh wow. This is truly becoming a trainwreck. Perhaps you should set up a different thread on minorities' influence on foreign policy in order not to derail this one even further, if it bothers you this much. Anyway, I can't keep myself from replying...

Supporting a party like DENK for minority issues, or supporting parties like VVD and SP solely for their respective stances on Israel-Palestine, is a sure sign of failed integration, as well as using the minority's political weight (although I stress again : minorities do not block vote for parties, despite certain insinuations in this thread, which could be categorized as bigoted at the very least) in order to force a foreign policy issue on the average Dutch citizen.

Though my vote is certainly not entirely based on Israel, it plays an important role. I suppose I have failed to integrate then, despite being a native speaker of Dutch, growing up in the polder, and holding a cum laude master's degree from a Dutch university. Not good! Assimilate I shall!

What has the unqualified defense of the Israeli governments or Palestinian actions got to do with Dutch Jews or Dutch Arabs that have never set foot on the Holy Land before?

To be sure, while I am critical of the Israeli government (I don't think any government ever gets "unqualified support" from me), I generally go to Israel twice a year, and I always make sure to spend some of my time volunteering in the settlements

Why do certain societies posing as ''Jewish'' defense societies in fact pursue a Zionist, sometimes Ultra-Zionist agenda in the Dutch political landscape, when their function is to integrate Jews into Dutch society? Is that not forcing a specific foreign policy, as well as a danger, on Dutch citizens who want nothing to with a conflict?

What danger exactly? Also, which "defense societies" ( ) claim to be Jewish? Why do you draw a distinction between Jewish and Zionist? What does Ultra-Zionist mean? Where does Zionism become Ultra-Zionist? Also, LMAO at Jewish organizations existing "to integrate Jews into Dutch society". Surely we need some more help to learn the language, or to get out of our ghettos.

Edit: never mind, I don't really want you to clarify this and derail the thread even further.

Look at Onno Hoes, Mayor of Maastricht who spent most of his time lobbying for the defense of Israeli governmental actions that are widely unpopular outside the hard right of the Netherlands. Here in Belgium we have parties that will never get a defense ministry like PTB/PVDA who talk about Palestine as if its a major issue. Emir Kir of PS refused the Armenian genocide minute of silence, and I believe your DENK members of the chamber did likewise.

Onno Hoes was chairman of CIDI, which is a part-time and mostly symbolic job; the daily activities of CIDI are in the hands of the director. So no, he did not spend "most of his time" lobbying for Israel. Hannah Luden is currently CIDI director. Luden, married to PvdA MP Ed Groot (who voted against a motion to combat antisemitism in the education system, so much for Luden being influential), is a noted dove and supporter of the Israeli Labor Party. Long-term CIDI director Ronny Naftaniel supports the PvdA, and Esther Voet, who left CIDI within a few years, is on the left of the VVD. Contrary to scaremongering in Dutch society, CIDI is a moderate organization (too moderate for my taste), supporting a two-state solution and generally falling in line with the Israeli center/left more than with the current government; for this reason, SP MP Harry van Bommel, hardly a staunch Zionist (remember "Intifada, Intifada"?), has been a guest at several CIDI events in recent years. MPs of all parties -- except for the PVV -- are willing to go to CIDI events. Of course this always provokes comments about (((Jewish money))) and Dutch politicians being bought etc., but to me it shows that CIDI is a moderate organization that is widely accepted across the political spectrum as a legitimate and constructive actor  -- except, as I said, by the PVV, which boycotts CIDI because it would be anti-Israel and anti-Jewish (and too anti-PVV). That's how "ultra-Zionist" or "hard right" CIDI is. As someone who is critical of CIDI yet knows the organization well, I don't get the impression you know what you're talking about.

I think there should be a debate about how foreign policy is conducted, but it should be about state interests and/or values rather than parties vying for minorities' votes in a tribalistic alliance. The same should apply when dealing with Turkey and the Turkish naturalized minorities. They keep their conflicts off the political agenda, or they simply give up their right to a vote, as you say they should.

Lol yeah, because only "real" (wink wink, this means white) Dutch people get to decide on which issues they base their vote, amirite?! Marxist Marnix (19), living in his parents' attic room, is allowed to vote for the SP because he has Very Strong Feelings about Palestine (or Rojava, for that matter) despite never having travelled father than the Ardeche and getting his news from NowThis, but DavidB. and someone who has a Turkish passport cannot, because, well, that would be a sign of Bad Integration. Double standards if I ever saw them, but it's all good if you sport a G-[XX] avatar.

How tolerant.

[Hash]

OK, this nice conversation should be about over now. Clean up, move on and stay on topic folks.

[DavidB.]

Excellent idea. Some interesting polls then. Support for the following policies on the basis of current party vote, age, and education.



From most to least popular:
Ending free-market competition in the healthcare system
Investing 2 billion in defense and police
Ending death duties for children of the deceased
Pension age should be 65 again [from 67 now, DavidB.]
Prioritizing the improvement of purchasing power for the elderly
Not admitting any more asylum seekers
Implementing a binding referendum
Implementing 3-month paternity leave
All contracts should become permanent, but it should become easier to fire people [proposed D66 policy, DavidB.]
Leave the EU
Closing down all asylum seeker centers

[DC Al Fine]

Excellent idea. Some interesting polls then. Support for the following policies on the basis of current party vote, age, and education.



From most to least popular:
Ending free-market competition in the healthcare system
Investing 2 billion in defense and police
Ending death duties for children of the deceased
Pension age should be 65 again [from 67 now, DavidB.]
Prioritizing the improvement of purchasing power for the elderly
Not admitting any more asylum seekers
Implementing a binding referendum
Implementing 3-month paternity leave
All contracts should become permanent, but it should become easier to fire people [proposed D66 policy, DavidB.]
Leave the EU
Closing down all asylum seeker centers

FTFY

[DC Al Fine]

I see that Hoog, Midden and Laag mean high, medium, and low. What does that translate to in US/UK terms?

[DavidB.]

I see that Hoog, Midden and Laag mean high, medium, and low. What does that translate to in US/UK terms?

It's about education levels. High means university + "associate degrees", the level under university (which would probably still be college in the US, but the less good ones). Medium is comparable to US community college, I think. Low is only high school (except the highest level of high school, I think; differentiation on the basis of intelligence already takes place at age 12/13 in the Dutch system) or less.

Thanks, btw. Edited my post. What was wrong with the way I did it? It used to work fine like that.

[DC Al Fine]

Not a clue, I'm afraid. I just noticed the imgur link wasn't working and tired the other way