Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[kansasdemocrat]

At this point, Grimes and Beshear and Edelen are guaranteed to win, as per the conventional wisdom.

It will be close for Conway but I think he will pull it out.

Agriculture commissioner and Treasurer go Republican.

[Skye]

0.6% reporting:

Bevin 48.8
Conway 47.6
Curtis 3.6

[ElectionsGuy]

Bevin cannot be losing Letcher county. He's done if that stays.

[seanNJ9]

Conway under performing.

[JerryArkansas]

Right now I'm seeing three sets of numbers on three different sites, on two Conway is ahead and on the other he is tied.

[seanNJ9]

 ‏@joesonka Louisville absentee and Lexington results show many voters choosing Grimes/Edelen/Beshear, but passing on Conway. #kygov #kyelect

[seanNJ9]

‏@geoffreyvs

Good news for Conway in #KYGov: His % in key Fayette Co. is 54.9%. Beshear won 54.7% there in 2011 in his easy win. We'll see if that holds.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cinci burbs coming in, 51-45 Bevin.

‏@geoffreyvs

Good news for Conway in #KYGov: His % in key Fayette Co. is 54.9%. Beshear won 54.7% there in 2011 in his easy win. We'll see if that holds.

Yeah but we'll probably see a bigger urban/rural split this time.

[The Other Castro]

1.5% Reporting:

Bevin - 51.4%
Conway - 45.1%
Curtis - 3.5%

[Mr. Reactionary]

Cinci burbs comming in, 51-45 Bevin.

Hey EG, which site are you using? I have 2 open but they don't match.

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/kentucky-governor/
http://interactives.courier-journal.com/election/2015-general/#/KY

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cinci burbs comming in, 51-45 Bevin.

Bevin has to win the region by more than that.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone have any insight to counties we should be looking at?  I wish there were TV coverage of this.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cinci burbs comming in, 51-45 Bevin.

Hey EG, which site are you using? I have 2 open but they don't match.

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/kentucky-governor/
http://interactives.courier-journal.com/election/2015-general/#/KY

I'm using that second one and the AP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay. Time to resume coverage of the non-gov races:

Agriculture Commissioner - General
29 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   8,803   56%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   6,916   44%

Attorney General - General
29 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   8,356   52%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   7,750   48%

Auditor - General
29 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   8,173   52%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   7,676   48%

Secretary of State - General
29 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   8,550   53%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   7,652   47%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
8 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   1,190   53%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   1,059   47%

Treasurer - General
29 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   9,122   57%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   6,815   43%

Looking much better for dems now

[The Other Castro]

That was a fast fire alarm.

[Figueira]

Pike County is now 100% in, going for Conway 54.1-42. Good news?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pike County is 100% in, and Conway won the county by 12%.

I'm very surprised by this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pike County is now 100% in, going for Conway 54.1-42. Good news?

Extremely good news.

Maybe Conway's Pike County organization was just unusually good.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like down ballot D's are performing better than Conway except for AC and Treasurer.

[kansasdemocrat]

Pike County is now 100% in, going for Conway 54.1-42. Good news?

Extremely good news.

Maybe Conway's Pike County organization was just unusually good.

It's not 100%

It was a web error. Only ~400 votes in and now reads 3.5% reported.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That was a fast fire alarm.

Yeah. Sometimes they last a lot longer.

Agriculture Commissioner - General
62 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   12,799   58%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   9,401   42%

Attorney General - General
69 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   12,669   51%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   12,374   49%

Auditor - General
69 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   12,248   50%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   12,185   50%

Secretary of State - General
69 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   12,902   51%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   12,206   49%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
36 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 7%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   3,833   56%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   2,955   44%

Treasurer - General
66 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   13,854   57%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   10,309   43%

[ElectionsGuy]

Pike County is now 100% in, going for Conway 54.1-42. Good news?

Extremely good news.

Maybe Conway's Pike County organization was just unusually good.

It's not 100%

It was a web error. Only ~400 votes in and now reads 3.5% reported.

Yeah, I was wondering what happened. Bevin would be done if that was the case though.

[Figueira]

Owen County now says 100%, with Conway winning 49-44. Is that real?

Edit: It's not. They really need to stop making these mistakes.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Pike County thing was apparently a misprint, but now Owen County is all in, and Conway won it by 5%. I thought Bevin would win Owen.

[The Other Castro]

Conway has taken the lead.