Mexican state elections 2016

[ag]

INE asks not to declare victories. Then Beltrones says PRI won 9 and Anaya says PAN won "at least" 3

[ag]

All 3 leading candidates decalre victory in Veracruz

[ag]

Seems PAN has in mind Puebla, Aguascalientes and Tamaulipas.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Exit polls released on El Financiero’s website show ruling PRI party w/slim leads in elections for governorships of Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca and Aguascalientes.
PRI and PAN candidates tied in Tamaulipas: Financiero

[jaichind]

Parametria Exit Poll Shows Ruling PRI Winning Sinaloa, Hidalgo

[ag]

First very early returns on PREPs. PAN seems to be ahead among the Hidrocalidos (I love the adjective) and in Tamaulipas and PRI seems to be ahead in Zacatecas (but no returns either from Zacatecas city or Fresnillo so far).

[ag]

Very early returns. Likely will change.

PAN is ahead in Aguascalientes, Tamaulipas, Durango, Puebla and QR (with PRD)
PRI is ahead in Tlaxcala, Zacatecas (followed by Morena), Sinaloa (real rout), Oaxaca (threeway split with PAN/PRD and Morena, PRI is only at 29%), Chihuahua and Hidalgo.
Morena is ahead in Veracruz (followed by PAN/PRD) and DF.

[ag]

Veracruz will be a big battle. Morena is ahead for the moment, but PAN/PRD is not far behind, and more of Xalapa has reported than of Veracruz City.

[ag]

Turnout in CDMX is 28.6%. I thought it would be lower

[ag]

On still very early numbers PAN has got ahead of PRI in Chihuahua!

All these results must simply be too early. Too good to be true

[jaichind]

With more results coming it it is a disaster for PRI.  It seems that PRI is running behind its pre-election polls by around 5%.  So far PAN or PAN-PRD area ahead in 7 states: Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Durango, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz  
While PRI is ahead in 5: Hidalgo, Oaxaca , Sinaloa, Tlaxcala, Zacatecas  

There seems to be an anti-incumabant streak, 8 out of 12 states governor elections saw the ruling party ousted.  

Oaxaca and Veracruz    are the most interesting given the multi-polar nature of the contest.

One you strip out the nulls you get in Oaxaca: PRI-PVEM-PANAL 32.12% PRD-PAN 26.43% MORENA 24.65% PT 11.19%.  While in Veracruz  it is PAN-PRD 33.62% MORENA 30.39% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 29.38%.

[jaichind]

After one strips out nulls we have

In Aguascalientes  it is PAN 44.59% PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT 42.42%
In Chihuahua it is PAN 42.33% PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT 32.03% Ind. 17.93%
In Durango it is PAN 46.90% PRI-PVEM-PANAL  42.86%
In Quintana Roo it is PRD-PAN 47.63% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 36.41% MORENA 10.93%
In Tamaulipas  it is PAN 51.15% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 36.19%

For Durango, Quintana Roo, and   Tamaulipas it is the first time PRI has lost the governorship.

[jaichind]

After one strips out nulls we have

In Puebla it is PAN-PT-PANAL  47.15% PRI-PVEM 34.90% MORENA 9.93%
In Hidalgo it is PRI-PVEM-PANAL 43.98% PAN 30.62% PRD 14.22% MORENA 8.06%

[jaichind]

After one strips out nulls we have

In Sinaloa it is PRI-PVEM-PANAL 42.27% MC-PAS 27.16% PAN 18.34%
In Tlaxcala it is  PRI-PVEM-PANAL 34.24% PRD 30.77% PAN 19.28% 
In Zacatecas   it is  PRI-PVEM-PANAL 38.46% MORENA 27.65% PRD-PAN 18.78%

[jaichind]

What is intesting is that in the 7 states PRI bloc lost, its average vote share is 36.31% while in the 5 states where the PRI bloc won its averge vote share is just 38.21%.  Sot it really comes down to how the anti-PRI vote is distributed.

[ag]

What is intesting is that in the 7 states PRI bloc lost, its average vote share is 36.31% while in the 5 states where the PRI bloc won its averge vote share is just 38.21%.  Sot it really comes down to how the anti-PRI vote is distributed.

The main thing is the consistent poor performance by PRI. The party, if it drops to under 40% of the vote is in trouble, since most Mexican states tend to evolve some form of bipartidism, and PRI is one of the 2 main parties everywhere, other than CDMX (remember, their national vote share would be weighted further down by the miserable performance in the City). So, unless the local opposition is badly split, PRI needs to be over 40% to win. They simply did not get there this time, and were only somewhat saved by the PRD/Morena split in Oaxaca and Zacatecas, interregnum in Sinaloa, PAN/PRD failure to agree in Tlaxcala and Hidalgo, etc.

[jaichind]

It does seem MORENA did pretty well despite not winning Veracruz.  I guess it is now a certainlty that AMLO will run in 2018. 

[ag]

It does seem MORENA did pretty well despite not winning Veracruz.  I guess it is now a certainlty that AMLO will run in 2018.  

It has been certainty always. He created the party for a reason. The question is, will PRD nominate Mancera to screw him. It seems, it might.

The only thing that would prevent at least one more run by AMLO is a new heart attack. He has had one already.

[jaichind]

The DF Constituent Assembly non-null vote share seems to be

MORENA         32.9%
PRD                28.7%
PAN                10.3%
Independents   9.0%
PRI                   7.8%
PANAL              2.9%
MC                   2.1%
PVEM               1.6%

Note sure how many independents make it past the threshold.  If a bunch of them did then PVEM would be locked out of a seat for sure.  It seems intersting that the MORENA-PRD civil war in DF only seems to weaken all other parties as voters polarize around PRD and MORENA.

[ag]

The DF Constituent Assembly non-null vote share seems to be

MORENA         32.9%
PRD                28.7%
PAN                10.3%
Independents   9.0%
PRI                   7.8%
PANAL              2.9%
MC                   2.1%
PVEM               1.6%

Note sure how many independents make it past the threshold.  If a bunch of them did then PVEM would be locked out of a seat for sure.  It seems intersting that the MORENA-PRD civil war in DF only seems to weaken all other parties as voters polarize around PRD and MORENA.

No independent got a whole quota. One of them, may be, has a chance on the remainders.

This was a very low turnout election, so party machines mattered. And the only two parties with real machines in the City are PRD and Morena.

[jaichind]

In Veracruz it is now for non-null vote

PAN-PRD               34.62%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   30.59%
MORENA               28.38%

with PRI coming in second now over MORENA.

[jaichind]

In Oaxaca it is now for non-null vote

PRI-PVEM-PANAL 32.81%
PRD-PAN             26.30%
MORENA             24.15%
PT                       11.08%

PRI gaining vote share over time.

[jaichind]

In Chihuahua the non null vote is

PAN                            41.20%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT    32.10%
Ind.                             18.72%

Independent canddiate seems to be gaining vote share at the expsense of PAN

[jaichind]

In Tlaxcala the non-null votes are now

PRI-PVEM-PANAL 34.69%
PRD                     30.57%
PAN                     19.14% 
MORENA                6.43%

PRI gaining vote share as time goes on.

[jaichind]

So all these imposting alliances that PRI manage to line up in almost every state other than Puebla did not end up getting PRI the votes.  Either the voting base of these parties like PVEM PANAL and sometimes PT did not vote for the PRI candidate or there was a swing from PRI to PAN in the Northern states or both.