2016 Congressional Primaries

[Vosem]

Suozzi gets the checkmark. With all precincts in, it seems that Nadler beat Rosenberg in the Brooklyn part of the district...by a single vote. That might still turn around with absentees. Kind of amazing that a challenger with actual endorsements from newspapers and state legislators got crushed 90-10 (while drawing the most populous part of the district), but goes to show how amazing the turnout difference is in this part of the world.

5 Manhattan precincts left; Espaillat leads Wright 37-34 overall and 36-35 in Manhattan. Depending on what part of Manhattan they're from, they could well block-vote for Wright, but even then I'm not sure he'd win. Espaillat probably deserves a checkmark, but I guess an abundance of caution is merited here.

Nothing else odd, though it's amazing to see how localized politics is in New York; plenty of utterly hopeless candidacies still managed to win their home counties (Stern, Lee, Heaney, Yandik, Phillips, Deacon, and maybe Rosenberg all both lost by double-digits while winning an absolute majority in their home county).

[Drew]

Snow still leading roughly 60-40 with 60% in for the UT Dem Senate race.  This has been holding steady.

[This account no longer in use.]

Well, this could be interesting. Shame Snow will be a sacrificial lamb unless a huge wave starts.

[Eraserhead]

There are Heaney signs all over the place in Dutchess. I'm not surprised that he won here at least.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Snow wins Utah Senate D.

[JMT]

Well, this could be interesting. Shame Snow will be a sacrificial lamb unless a huge wave starts.

Even if there's a huge wave, Mike Lee isn't going anywhere. Safe R.

[This account no longer in use.]

Snow's only behind 14. I don't think the Utah Republican firewall is going down this election, but there are definitely a few cracks.

[IceSpear]

LOLCOGOP.

Remember back when Mike Lee was supposed to drastically underperform the Republican presidential nominee because he was so polarizing? Fun times. He'll still win in a landslide, but his margin will be weaksauce for an incumbent Utah Republican...though not quite as weaksauce as Trump's eventual margin will be. Just like the Kansas backlash, the Utah backlash will almost certainly just amount to decreased margins. Misty Snow...that's quite a name.

It's interesting they have yet to call the race for Espaillat when he's up 3 points with 99% in.

By the way, I don't think anyone's mentioned this: Lee Bright, the SC state Senator who challenged Graham in 2014 and notable Confederate flag fetishist, lost re-election. The curse of the bloodthirsty queen strikes again!

[This account no longer in use.]

By the way, I don't think anyone's mentioned this: Lee Bright, the SC state Senator who challenged Graham in 2014 and notable Confederate flag fetishist, lost re-election. The curse of the bloodthirsty queen strikes again!

[publicunofficial]

Snow is a transgender woman who works as a Wal-Mart cashier. Either she ran a very good campaign, or Swinton ran a terrible one.

[IceSpear]

Snow is a transgender woman who works as a Wal-Mart cashier. Either she ran a very good campaign, or Swinton ran a terrible one.

Or people just voted for Snow because the name sounded better.

I mean, Swinton is a marriage counselor. In terms of political resume, that's not really better than Wal-Mart cashier. I'd guess both of their "campaigns" were virtually nonexistent, though I could be wrong if Zioneer would like to correct me.

[Holmes]

Snow's only behind 14. I don't think the Utah Republican firewall is going down this election, but there are definitely a few cracks.

Mmm. Trump might be bringing him down now, but he'll probably pull ahead to at least a 20% victory.

Snow has a good campaign website. It's a pretty historic nomination. Shame she won't win.

[Eraserhead]

Swinton is basically a right-winger and Utah Democrats are pretty liberal. Snow also seems to have attached herself to Bernie Sanders somewhat, who is popular with Dems there.

[smoltchanov]

Swinton is basically a right-winger and Utah Democrats are pretty liberal. Snow also seems to have attached herself to Bernie Sanders somewhat, who is popular with Dems there.

A tendency i noticed in many states and counties: if you stick to a party, which is in dire minority in your state/county - you (usually) stick to party's most "faithful" wing and vote accordingly. Some precincts in 99% Democratic (and liberal) parts of Brookline went for Cruz in Republican primary. And Democrats in, probably, most conservative Florida county (Holmes, in Panhandle) went for Sanders... So - not surprising that Utah Democrats tend to be liberal: for moderate it's better to try his/her  luck in Republican party, which gives better chances  for electoral success (good example - state Representative Rebecca Edwards, who just won her primary with 52% of vote - she will regularily "attract" more conservative opposition in primary).

[IceSpear]

Swinton is basically a right-winger and Utah Democrats are pretty liberal. Snow also seems to have attached herself to Bernie Sanders somewhat, who is popular with Dems there.

A tendency i noticed in many states and counties: if you stick to a party, which is in dire minority in your state/county - you (usually) stick to party's most "faithful" wing and vote accordingly. Some precincts in 99% Democratic (and liberal) parts of Brookline went for Cruz in Republican primary. And Democrats in, probably, most conservative Florida county (Holmes, in Panhandle) went for Sanders... So - not surprising that Utah Democrats tend to be liberal: for moderate it's better to try his/her  luck in Republican party, which gives better chances  for electoral success (good example - state Representative Rebecca Edwards, who just won her primary with 52% of vote - she will regularily "attract" more conservative opposition in primary).

In some cases, like Utah, yeah. But the Florida Panhandle voters were Dixiecrats who always vote Republican in the general who wanted to stick it to the party/Obama/Hillary/the establishment. They weren't voting for Sanders because he was the most liberal. Notice how Martin O'Malley got very high vote shares as well.

[smoltchanov]

Swinton is basically a right-winger and Utah Democrats are pretty liberal. Snow also seems to have attached herself to Bernie Sanders somewhat, who is popular with Dems there.

A tendency i noticed in many states and counties: if you stick to a party, which is in dire minority in your state/county - you (usually) stick to party's most "faithful" wing and vote accordingly. Some precincts in 99% Democratic (and liberal) parts of Brookline went for Cruz in Republican primary. And Democrats in, probably, most conservative Florida county (Holmes, in Panhandle) went for Sanders... So - not surprising that Utah Democrats tend to be liberal: for moderate it's better to try his/her  luck in Republican party, which gives better chances  for electoral success (good example - state Representative Rebecca Edwards, who just won her primary with 52% of vote - she will regularily "attract" more conservative opposition in primary).

In some cases, like Utah, yeah. But the Florida Panhandle voters were Dixiecrats who always vote Republican in the general who wanted to stick it to the party/Obama/Hillary/the establishment. They weren't voting for Sanders because he was the most liberal. Notice how Martin O'Malley got very high vote shares as well.

Yes, i noticed that too. And agree that it was (in part, at least) a protest vote. But you will surely agree that O'Malley is hardly a "Dixiecrat" either...

P.S. The political history of Northern Florida deserves special book (or, at least, discussion). Only half century ago it was BOTH very Democratic AND very conservative (though, AFAIK, no ratings from that time exist)....... Quater century ago - Republican on Presidential level, mixed - on congressional, still mostly Democratic - on state legislative (and very much so - on local level) and, again - very conservative. Now - Republican on almost all levels, but local (where Democrats still have substantial residual strength), and, probably, even more conservative...

[The Other Castro]

Any idea when the absentee votes will be in for NY-1?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Espillat wins NY-13 D: https://www.google.com/amp/nypost.com/2016/06/29/adriano-espaillat-wins-harlem-primary-for-charlie-rangels-seat/amp/?client=ms-android-verizon#

The next primary is the GA-3 R Runoff on July 26th, followed by KS/MI/MO/WA on August 2nd.

[ElectionsGuy]

Espillat wins NY-13 D: https://www.google.com/amp/nypost.com/2016/06/29/adriano-espaillat-wins-harlem-primary-for-charlie-rangels-seat/amp/?client=ms-android-verizon#

The next primary is the GA-3 R Runoff on July 26th, followed by KS/MI/MO/WA on August 2nd.

So we're going to have a solid 3 weeks of nothing going on until the convention.

[Eraserhead]

It looks like the final margin in the Teachout/Yandik race is going to be about 46 points. Hot damn!

[Miles]

GA-03 R Primary. Runoff coming up on the 26th.

[IceSpear]

Throne-Holst has won the primary in NY-01 to face Zeldin.

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/suffolk/anna-throne-holst-wins-1st-congressional-district-primary-1.12021603

[Vega]

Snow is a transgender woman who works as a Wal-Mart cashier. Either she ran a very good campaign, or Swinton ran a terrible one.

Or people just voted for Snow because the name sounded better.

I mean, Swinton is a marriage counselor. In terms of political resume, that's not really better than Wal-Mart cashier. I'd guess both of their "campaigns" were virtually nonexistent, though I could be wrong if Zioneer would like to correct me.

Apparently she's a cashier at Harrods Grocery.

Anyway, she is an absolutely atrocious candidate who can't utter a sentence without saying like or um. Can't way to see her and Lee debate.

[rob in cal]

   Am I the only one on the Atlas board who has a fantasy about Speaker Ryan doing something to really irritate Trump so that the Trumpster decides to support Ryan's primary opponent Paul Nehlen, and actually makes a few campaign stops in southeast Wisconsin to help him. I think that would make great political theater.
   Who knows, perhaps Ryan's support for Trump, tepid as it is, is due to fear of such a Cantorizing development?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I haven't seen this reported much anywhere but on conservative news sites like Breitbart, so take it with a huge grain of salt.

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