2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

Everyone who thinks that Democrats win by more than 5 points, should check their mental faculties

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2006
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Everyone who thinks that Democrats win by more than 5 points, should check their mental faculties

Trump got 46% of the vote

Trump has a 39% approval rating

Almost everyone who didn't vote for Trump disapproves of him

Midterms are almost always bad for the president's party

Obama's party lost the generic ballot by 7% when he had a 45% approval rating

Take all these basic and obvious facts together, and even a dumb person can see that dems are likely going to do quite a bit better than +5.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Everyone who thinks that Democrats win by more than 5 points, should check their mental faculties

Trump got 46% of the vote

Trump has a 39% approval rating

Almost everyone who didn't vote for Trump disapproves of him

Midterms are almost always bad for the president's party

Obama's party lost the generic ballot by 7% when he had a 45% approval rating

Take all these basic and obvious facts together, and even a dumb person can see that dems are likely going to do quite a bit better than +5.

[publicunofficial]

NV-04: Leading Republican Stavros Anthony is dropping out, citing health concerns.

[KingSweden]

NV-04: Leading Republican Stavros Anthony is dropping out, citing health concerns.

Wonder if Hardy takes another stab at it.

[ajc0918]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/

[Doimper]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/

On a related note, I found out today that Cornregard Southron Buttermilk McGillicuddy XXV is now a lobbyist for Viktor Orban. Wonder who Rubio would've sold out to if Crist beat him - Erdogan?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/

On a related note, I found out today that Cornregard Southron Buttermilk McGillicuddy XXV is now a lobbyist for Viktor Orban. Wonder who Rubio would've sold out to if Crist beat him - Erdogan?

Raul Castro?

[The Other Castro]

SC-05: Archie Parnell (D) raised $340K since October, has $220K cash on hand

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/953340005077929984

[Pericles]

SC-05: Archie Parnell (D) raised $340K since October, has $220K cash on hand

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/953340005077929984

Archie is great. He'll win, when he does I'll accept my accolades.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure where to post this one:


Public Policy Polling, Ganz (D) internal
Jan. 10-11,  +/- 4.1

CA-22

Devin Nunes (R): 50%
"Democratic Opponent": 45%

[GlobeSoc]

Not sure where to post this one:


Public Policy Polling, Ganz (D) internal
Jan. 10-11,  +/- 4.1

CA-22

Devin Nunes (R): 50%
"Democratic Opponent": 45%

Maybe true, but that would require literally unprecedented mobilization of Latinos.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure where to post this one:


Public Policy Polling, Ganz (D) internal
Jan. 10-11,  +/- 4.1

CA-22

Devin Nunes (R): 50%
"Democratic Opponent": 45%

Maybe true, but that would require literally unprecedented mobilization of Latinos.

They're probably quite motivated after a year of the Trump administration.

[publicunofficial]

IL-17: Mark Kleine (R) is dropping out. That's two semi-decent Republican recuits in vunerable D seats to call it quits this week.

[Virginiá]

FWIW I did post a WaPo article (iirc) that said some GOP strategists were seeing signs of a potential Hispanic voter surge in their polling. Probably something to do with enthusiasm measurements.

[publicunofficial]

From NY Post: Nancy Pelosi is reportedly trying to recruit Lt. Gov Kathy Hochul to run for NY-27 against Chris Collins.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From NY Post: Nancy Pelosi is reportedly trying to recruit Lt. Gov Kathy Hochul to run for NY-27 against Chris Collins.

With the luck she's been having? She'll get her wish.

[Holmes]

From NY Post: Nancy Pelosi is reportedly trying to recruit Lt. Gov Kathy Hochul to run for NY-27 against Chris Collins.

She'd be strong, and Collins has quite a few controversies regarding investments, but she would be trading an easy re-election to run.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Do you guys think the potential government shutdown will hurt or help the Democrats?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do you guys think the potential government shutdown will hurt or help the Democrats?

To the extent that it would have any effect, which is probably not much, it would be more likely to help the Democrats.  It's hard to argue against the Republicans owning it when they control both chambers of Congress and the White House.

Having said that, I think a shutdown is unlikely.

[Virginiá]

Do you guys think the potential government shutdown will hurt or help the Democrats?

To the extent that it would have any effect, which is probably not much, it would be more likely to help the Democrats.  It's hard to argue against the Republicans owning it when they control both chambers of Congress and the White House.

Having said that, I think a shutdown is unlikely.

I agree more or less, but I also think it depends on exactly what causes the shutdown and which party best sells their side of the argument. However because Republicans control the entire federal government, the onus is on them to convince the public why it isn't their fault. This is not an easy feat, given that Republicans have something of a reputation for being bad at governing, particularly given their history of shutdowns and Congressional obstruction and their inability to get much of anything done in 2017.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What do you guys think of Perry O. Hooper Jr. to primary Roby in Al 2nd?

[LimoLiberal]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

[Virginiá]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

I'm confused - Winning by 8-9 points as opposed to a tsunami of 11 - 13 points is not a wave? This is another example of shifting goalposts. Democrats were in wave territory before December, but now that everyone got excited about double digit polls, anything less than that is suddenly a "collapse" and uncertain of a wave?

Sheesh. Come on LimoLiberal.

[LimoLiberal]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

I'm confused - Winning by 8-9 points as opposed to a tsunami of 11 - 13 points is not a wave? This is another example of shifting goalposts. Democrats were in wave territory before December, but now that everyone got excited about double digit polls, anything less than that is suddenly a "collapse" and uncertain of a wave?

Sheesh. Come on LimoLiberal.

If the election were to be held today and the average gcb poll was correct, it would be a democratic wave. I'm pointing out that the trend is not in Democrat's favor, with both Donald Trump's approval rating rising and their generic ballot advantage eroding. So a wave would happen today, but if trends keep going like they already are, it would not be so giant come November.