Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

For the record, our numbers this morning showed the NDP+1, and this afternoon showed the PCs+1, but that might be because of calling old people at home or something.

Really though, the last 2 weeks of the campaign have shown fairly consistent numbers across the board. Should give me lots of data to make some predictions

[Hatman 🍁]

Opinion of this?

[Hatman 🍁]

That centre line reminds me of Political Compass

Well, it was from Vote Compass.

Definitely a lot of issues with this ranking, I think.  I really don't think Carleton - a riding that nearly went Liberal in 2015 - is the most right wing in Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not the polling I've seen specifically of Ottawa Centre.  I'm curious what he means by "the polls."

Naqvi is known to be a nice guy and liked by his constituents - but so was Paul Dewar.

No clue. I am assuming that it refers to some internal riding polling, but they may have just referenced #s from one of the riding projection sites.

Probably. Mainstreet has Naqvi almost in third place.

Hmm. Maybe I should get my credit card and donate to Joel Harden.

Nothing personal against Naqvi, but I was so distraught when Paul Dewar lost, that well... you know, schadenfreude. I would be ecstatic if he lost.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doug Ford got my vote.

I thought you lived in London.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Ekos poll?:

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1004140058901925888

that is our numbers from this morning that I mentioned.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird though that he didn't include either Thunder Bay seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of people are in denial about Ottawa Centre.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

I can understand push back on Halifax, but Dartmouth?! The NDP won it by 2% in 2011 and the Liberals were running a city councilor in 2015. That's a ridiculously easy pick up

Sorry, I meant Sackville!

[Hatman 🍁]

I would cry out HERDING but our numbers are within those ranges too :/

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Mainstreet is avoiding the herding. They now have the PCs up by 6. lol...

[Hatman 🍁]

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.

Are you going to be releasing any riding polls with the final poll tonight?

No, they are internal.

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.

Is the NDP getting votes where they need them or are they just getting "respectable second" in a bunch of places?

Well, we didn't poll many ridings like that, but they're consistent with the NDP winning 40-50 seats, I'd say.

[Hatman 🍁]

  Don't know if this has been addressed yet, but is there much of a chance of potential Green voters going for NDP candidates in marginal seats?  I would think many such voters would be awfully tempted to jump ship and help stop Ford.

I think the Green vote is going to bottom out, kind of like how it did in the 2011 federal election, where they still picked up a seat, due to concentrating all of their resources in one riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman - Around what time tomorrow will we see the riding projections. I know overall it is 67-75 PC, 41-49 NDP, 5-10 Liberal and 1 Green but be interested to see which ones.

Sometime in the AM, I hope.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

Well, there are two basic scenarios that could happen post-election. One is that the elections slowly transition towards that of the western provinces, with a two-party system. The other scenario is that this is merely a blip like the federal election of 2011, and the Libs will be back in greater numbers.

The main deciding point between these two outcomes is whether the NDP wins tonight. If the NDP wins outright, then the Libs might be boned as the NDP takes up the mantle of main left-wing party. The NDP will have won the election without a major bunch of seats from the 905, something that has been necessary for a long time. However, polls do not suggest a NDP majority, so the worst case scenario for the Libs is backing a minority govt of any type. They will end up with the image of merely playing lackey to whatever party is in power. They will probably be punished in the next election, meaning that the libs would have been out of power for 10ish years.

Better for the Libs is a PC majority. In this scenario, they can rebuild their party from the outside, and argue the other two are extremes nobody in their right mind wants. The libs still have institutional strength in voters minds and in the media. these factors can be leveraged to rebuild the party post-2018. If the libs are backing a minority government though, given time, then these factors will gradually leave the party apparatus.

Key to this though is the size of the lib caucus. 10 seats or more probably means a safer future - barring backing a minority government, while 3 or less seats is going to be hard to recover from.

Well you see, Ontario is not a western province, so it's not going to start voting like one in the long run, even if it does tonight. The demographics and the political institutions are just too different.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a present

[Hatman 🍁]

I mapped it too, but thanks!