LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Cinemark]

Intervals: <60%, 60-70%, and 70%+ (non-Atlas colors)

Total Republican: 696,399 (51.8%)
Total Democratic: 636,993 (47.4%)

If these are the results in November, it'd be disapointing but certainly a noble effort from the last Southern Republican governor.

Firstly, I think you Democratic.

Secondly, Roy Cooper and Ralph Northam still exist.

I meant deep south, although i guess i did forget about Cooper.

Also, just an independent abhorred by modern Republicans behavior.

Edit: Forgot a word. 

[Flyersfan232]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

No, Landrieu is a rightwinger who used the nygger word.

He’s not from the Democratic Landrieus in LA ...

And you think the people who voted for him know that? They probably just voted based off the last name.

He did that ballotpedia thing.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1183253093712125954

ironic considering he could very well lose his job next month the two round voting can be interesting

[Flyersfan232]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

ANY Demicrat would lose there. Simply because "D" letter is almost as toxic there as "R" - in San Francisco.

This guy went on the Alex Jones show.

[lfromnj]

I think Milkovich lost because rural Lousianians are smart voters who dont stand for stupid anti vaxxers.

[Flyersfan232]

Unfortunately, pretty sure my signature is gonna be proven right.

See the thing about run-offs is that if you don't get a majority the first time, you're in a much tougher position because most of the people who voted for the other guy in the same party are probably gonna stick with that party's nominee in the run-off. Most of the polls suggested this would happen, so I was already predicting a narrow Edwards defeat in the run-off, maybe 51-49 or 52-48 or something along those lines, and this has definitely not changed that. I really don't know why people think enough Abraham voters are gonna flip to Edwards to give him a majority in the run-off. I suppose it COULD happen, and I hope it does, but given the laser focus the GOP will have on targeting Edwards now for the next month, I have my doubts.

On the other hand, in Kentucky Beshear doesn't need to win a majority -- he just has to get a plurality over Bevin. The way the Libertarian candidate is polling right now at about 5 or 6% could well be enough to give Beshear the edge given Bevin's immense unpopularity. So far his ties to Trump have not appeared to give him much of a boost -- he barely scraped by in the GOP primary against no-name contenders who barely ran campaigns despite Trump's endorsement.

By the way 2015 was a unique situation for the Louisiana governor's race that doesn't really apply here. But on the other hand you could actually argue Bevin's win in Kentucky in 2015 was also unique due to a very weak Democratic candidate, a very poor turnout year for most Democrats (yet Andy Beshear still won the AG race), and a rare GOP victory for the KY governor's mansion after eight years of Beshear Sr. The situation isn't the same in Louisiana, and despite the incumbency of both Edwards (who is relatively popular for a Democrat in a deep red state) and Bevin (who is horrifically unpopular for a Republican in a deep red state), I ultimately think both will lose.

bare in Mind the libertarian party candidate was polling that in Georgia too in 2018 and barely got 1% on election day

[Flyersfan232]

Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.

That don’t mean anything since there no Vitter

[Flyersfan232]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

Of course - moderate Democrats can lose in conservative Louisiana. But that doesn't mean that "bold progressive" would have done better. On the contrary: most of Democratic candidates in downballot statewide races were more liberal, then JBE. Which percentage they got? Together - between 32 and 35% in all races (numbers very similar to Black percentage in the state, meaning that voting was, probably, very polarized by race, except governor race). Democrats absolutely cratered in Acadiana and around it (even conservative-leaning candidates were beaten badly), but former conservative Democrat, running for state House this time as Republican, beat an opponent, whom he lost as Democrat, rather decisively (letter after name was different). With rare exceptions (university cities) - all non-metropolian majority white southern areas became a "scorched Earth" zone for Democratic candidates. Any candidates: socially extremely conservative Milkovich lost to Republican too. Suburbs - another matter, but in Louisiana they are still relatively conservative and not that big (and, usually,  can't outvote almost 90% Republican rural areas).

Republicans gained considerably in state legislature, Only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau and Smith, who was unopposed), the same tendency - in House. "Black party" and "White party" essentially..

I'm not saying that a progressive Democrat would have won, simply that it really doesn't make much difference in very red states, and that being "moderate" is not a silver bullet.

progressives would have lost to David Vitter

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Found on Eddie Rispone's FB group. A segment of Abraham supporters bitter at him might spell potential trouble.

[Xing]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

Of course - moderate Democrats can lose in conservative Louisiana. But that doesn't mean that "bold progressive" would have done better. On the contrary: most of Democratic candidates in downballot statewide races were more liberal, then JBE. Which percentage they got? Together - between 32 and 35% in all races (numbers very similar to Black percentage in the state, meaning that voting was, probably, very polarized by race, except governor race). Democrats absolutely cratered in Acadiana and around it (even conservative-leaning candidates were beaten badly), but former conservative Democrat, running for state House this time as Republican, beat an opponent, whom he lost as Democrat, rather decisively (letter after name was different). With rare exceptions (university cities) - all non-metropolian majority white southern areas became a "scorched Earth" zone for Democratic candidates. Any candidates: socially extremely conservative Milkovich lost to Republican too. Suburbs - another matter, but in Louisiana they are still relatively conservative and not that big (and, usually,  can't outvote almost 90% Republican rural areas).

Republicans gained considerably in state legislature, Only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau and Smith, who was unopposed), the same tendency - in House. "Black party" and "White party" essentially..

I'm not saying that a progressive Democrat would have won, simply that it really doesn't make much difference in very red states, and that being "moderate" is not a silver bullet.

progressives would have lost to David Vitter

That's speculation, but even if it were true, voters are even more polarized in 2019 than they were in 2015.

[Frenchrepublican]

Found on Eddie Rispone's FB group. A segment of Abraham supporters bitter at him might spell potential trouble.

Well, it's probably more an anecdotal phenomenon than anything else.

[Cinemark]

Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

[Gass3268]

JBE's internal has him up by 16, they claim they nailed their jungle percentage:

https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1183761810022948867?s=20

ALG's poll shows 12% of Abraham's voters said they will vote for Edwards in the runoff with 15% of them undecided.

ALG's poll also shows Edwards' with a 60% positive job rating, but that would also be an indication some voters who approve of Edwards' job voted for one of the Republicans in the primary anyway.

Rispone, meanwhile, has a 32% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable rating in the poll.

[KaiserDave]

I mean, the poll is obviously skewed. But if Edwards is carrying anywhere near to 12% of Abraham's voters its all over for Rispone.

[Frenchrepublican]

JBE's internal has him up by 16, they claim they nailed their jungle percentage:

https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1183761810022948867?s=20

ALG's poll shows 12% of Abraham's voters said they will vote for Edwards in the runoff with 15% of them undecided.

ALG's poll also shows Edwards' with a 60% positive job rating, but that would also be an indication some voters who approve of Edwards' job voted for one of the Republicans in the primary anyway.

Rispone, meanwhile, has a 32% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable rating in the poll.

They must be really worried to release some bogus internal polls less than 48 hours after the end of the first round.

Concerning the claim they nailed the jungle primary results, I would love to see what share of the vote they gave to the two republican candidates, the problem with many #LA-GOV polls is that they underestimated greatly the share of the vote obtained by the two republicans, not that they failed to predict the JBE’s share.

[Frenchrepublican]

Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

It’s not a big deal, Abraham is not a sore loser and endorsed him quickly, primary are sometimes brutal but it rarely matters in the end. Just at the #FL-GOV primary last year, it was very brutal and despite it, in the end most Putnam’s voters backed De Santis.

[Cinemark]

Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

It’s not a big deal, Abraham is not a sore loser and endorsed him quickly, primary are sometimes brutal but it rarely matters in the end. Just at the #FL-GOV primary last year, it was very brutal and despite it, in the end most Putnam’s voters backed De Santis.

We'll see. There could be republicans who voted for Abraham out of loyality who might now vote for Edwards, especially since Ripose went negative while Abraham didnt. Not saying it'll happen, but to openly dismiss the possibility seems short sighted.

Also, while the Florida governor race was very negative, DeSantis had about 3 months to consolidate support. Ripose has a month. DeSantis also wasnt running against a semi-popular incumbent.

Again, i'm not saying Ripose is gonna lose because of this. But Ripose went very negative while Abraham did not. That could piss off some people, maybe enough to get them to cross over like in 2015.

[Frenchrepublican]

Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

It’s not a big deal, Abraham is not a sore loser and endorsed him quickly, primary are sometimes brutal but it rarely matters in the end. Just at the #FL-GOV primary last year, it was very brutal and despite it, in the end most Putnam’s voters backed De Santis.

We'll see. There could be republicans who voted for Abraham out of loyality who might now vote for Edwards, especially since Ripose went negative while Abraham didnt. Not saying it'll happen, but to openly dismiss the possibility seems short sighted.

Also, while the Florida governor race was very negative, DeSantis had about 3 months to consolidate support. Ripose has a month. DeSantis also wasnt running against a semi-popular incumbent.

Again, i'm not saying Ripose is gonna lose because of this. But Ripose went very negative while Abraham did not. That could piss off some people, maybe enough to get them to cross over like in 2015.

Well, wait and see ; but I don’t think that 2015 is a good analogy because Vitter was really a flawed candidate and his republican opponents even refused to back him in the runoff. Besides moderate republicans who like Edwards have already voted for him Saturday, so I doubt he will find many new supporters on his right flank.

[Donerail]

Concerning the claim they nailed the jungle primary results, I would love to see what share of the vote they gave to the two republican candidates, the problem with many #LA-GOV polls is that they underestimated greatly the share of the vote obtained by the two republicans, not that they failed to predict the JBE’s share.

This claim has been made a few times in this thread. The problem is that there's not really any evidence that this is actually the case — the explanation is simply that the most likely people to be "undecided" in a contested election with two Republicans and one Democrat are Republicans. If you look at the polls that actually pushed those undecided voters, you'll see that they did a pretty decent job of figuring out the final vote shares.

Rispone+Abraham final: 51
Trafalgar: 48 (MoE of 3)
Data for Progress: 48 (MoE of 3)
Emerson: 44, but with 4% to the Landrieu and 3% to the no-name R

[lfromnj]

Heard that JBE used Obama robocalls but they weren't targeted properly

[Tender Branson]

I hope Trump stays out before the runoff ... but I guess he won't.

[Canis]

I think Edwards can eke this out but its gonna be a close one got this some polls show him taking 12% of Abraham's support already

[Pericles]

I think Edwards can eke this out but its gonna be a close one got this some polls show him taking 12% of Abraham's support already

The poll I saw had him taking 12% of Abraham's support with 18% of Abraham's support being undecided.

[Frenchrepublican]

Concerning the claim they nailed the jungle primary results, I would love to see what share of the vote they gave to the two republican candidates, the problem with many #LA-GOV polls is that they underestimated greatly the share of the vote obtained by the two republicans, not that they failed to predict the JBE’s share.

This claim has been made a few times in this thread. The problem is that there's not really any evidence that this is actually the case — the explanation is simply that the most likely people to be "undecided" in a contested election with two Republicans and one Democrat are Republicans. If you look at the polls that actually pushed those undecided voters, you'll see that they did a pretty decent job of figuring out the final vote shares.

Rispone+Abraham final: 51
Trafalgar: 48 (MoE of 3)
Data for Progress: 48 (MoE of 3)
Emerson: 44, but with 4% to the Landrieu and 3% to the no-name R

Another plausible explanation is that many of these polls which had the R combined share of the vote >45% is that they over-sampled democrats. Data for Progress had Trump approval at +12 while Emerson had him at only +8, while Mason Dixon had him at only +6. It explains why Data for Progress did a better job predicting the real results than other polls.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think Edwards can eke this out but its gonna be a close one got this some polls show him taking 12% of Abraham's support already

The poll I saw had him taking 12% of Abraham's support with 18% of Abraham's support being undecided.

And it remains to be seen if this number of 12% is not inflated by the fact that the poll was done before the end of the primary.