US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Joe Republic]

Which of these districts are VRA-mandated, and which are just good ol' fashioned gerrymandering?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Redistricting really needs to be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Quoted for truth.

[krazen1211]

Butterfield's whining put them in a worse position. Districts 1 and 4 are racked and packed even harder. McIntyre had a better shot to hold the old district than this one.


And lol.


For example, based upon the results of the 2008 General Election, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper would have carried twelve of thirteen districts in Rucho-Lewis 1 and all thirteen districts in Rucho-Lewis 2.

[krazen1211]

They definitely did no worse than the existing map.

The existing map has a 4th district that reflects a sensible community of interest. It doesn't stretch all the way to Fayetteville for partisan gain.

The existing map only splits Wake County three ways, which is bad enough. The Republican map splits it four ways.

The existing map only splits Forsyth County two ways, and only to accomodate the VRA district. The Republican map splits it three ways.

The existing map leaves the city of Asheville intact. The Republican map splits it for partisan gain.

The existing map leaves Harnett County intact. The Republican map splits it three ways for partisan gain and to prevent an Etheridge comeback.

The existing map splits Rowan and Davidson Counties only two ways. The Republican map splits them three ways.

Furthermore, the Republican map also seems to keep the most egregious splits from the existing map:
          -Three-way split of Cumberland County? Check.
          -Three-way split of Guilford County? Check, although at least they got rid of the touch-point contiguity, I think. The 12th looks pretty damn narrow there.

Now, I'm certainly not saying that the existing map is fair. It is definitely a Democratic gerrymander. But this map takes gerrymandering to a whole new level.

They cleaned up much of this.


3 way split in Mecklenberg? Mostly gone, there appear to be 5000 people in Mecklenberg.

3 way split of Forscyth? Gone.

3 way split of Guilford? Gone.

4 way split of Wake? Back to 3.

There are of course some things that still need to go, like that 7th sticking into both Robeson and Scotland. I see why they stuck all the New Hanover blacks into 3 though.

[minionofmidas]

Whatever they say, I'm pretty sure they'd blithely ignore Butterfield's concerns if they felt certain that their map would really give them 10 seats (as opposed to, give them a chance in 10 seats). It's even possible that the mapdrawers did feel that but have since been reality-checked by R lawmakers from the proposed 7th.

Okay, so I'll amend that to "Whatever they say, I'm pretty sure they'd blithely ignore Butterfield's concerns if they felt certain that their map would really give them 10 seats (as opposed to, give them a chance in 10 seats), and hadn't understood that incorporating his complaints actually made it possible to improve their chances.

[minionofmidas]

Of course, whether Butterfield cares is another matter.

[krazen1211]

Of course, whether Butterfield cares is another matter.

He probably doesn't want a primary from an urban black.

[krazen1211]

Some more numbers.

NC1: 65/35 Kerry
NC2: 64/36 Bush
NC3: 62/38 Bush
NC4: 62/38 Kerry
NC5: 65/35 Bush
NC6: 63/37 Bush
NC7: 62/38 Bush
NC8: 63/37 Bush
NC9: 64/35 Bush
NC10: 64/36 Bush
NC11: 64/35 Bush
NC12: 69/30 Kerry
NC13: 63/37 Bush

NC1: 68/32 Marshall
NC2: 62/38 Burr
NC3: 63/37 Burr
NC4: 68/32 Marshall
NC5: 65/35 Burr
NC6: 64/36 Burr
NC7: 63/37 Burr
NC8: 62/38 Burr
NC9: 64/36 Burr
NC10: 61/39 Burr
NC11: 63/37 Burr
NC12: 73/27 Marshall
NC13: 60/40 Burr



Edit: Thanks, X, I corrected the spreadsheet and fixed the numbers.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some more numbers.

NC1: 65/35 Kerry
NC2: 64/36 Bush
NC3: 62/38 Bush
NC4: 62/38 Kerry
NC5: 65/46 Bush
NC6: 63/48 Bush
NC7: 62/46 Bush
NC8: 63/48 Bush
NC9: 64/45 Bush
NC10: 64/47 Bush
NC11: 64/45 Bush
NC12: 69/20 Kerry
NC13: 63/47 Bush
NC1: 68/32 Marshall
NC2: 62/38 Burr
NC3: 63/37 Burr
NC4: 68/32 Marshall
NC5: 65/35 Burr
NC6: 64/36 Burr
NC7: 63/37 Burr
NC8: 62/48 Burr
NC9: 64/36 Burr
NC10: 61/39 Burr
NC11: 63/37 Burr
NC12: 73/27 Marshall
NC13: 60/40 Burr

A bunch of those numbers don't add up to 100

[redcommander]

Wow I didn't know it was possible to skew North Carolina so much in favor of the Republicans.

[Miles]

The 4th uses touch-point.

[minionofmidas]

Of course, whether Butterfield cares is another matter.

He probably doesn't want a primary from an urban black.

Yah, I meant, "we do not need to assume that Butterfield cares one jot that meeting his concerns made the map stronger rather than weaker for Republicans". Though it also makes it first-glance uglier, and not just in the parts added to his own district.

[minionofmidas]

The 4th uses touch-point.

On a point in the Cape Fear River. Actually, if you zoom in close enough on the DRA and color in only the precincts in CD4, you get the impression that it's non-contiguous, but it's a false impression as coloring the other two precincts makes clear.

They didn't want to waste a 60+ McCain precinct with 7500 people in it on a Dem sink district, and (probably due to some local complaint, or to reduce the number of additional split counties) they didn't want to split little Lee County, either.

Looks like they had originally proposed to split one of Lee's precincts (they're huge), too.

[CultureKing]

I hope this map will be heading to the courts.

[Miles]

I was in Kay Hagan's office today discussing the plan.

Her aides think that Shuler could very well hold on, Kissell and McIntyre are pretty much up the creek and that McHenry could also have a rough time, as he took in more of Asheville.

One of her advisers told me that McHenry (ideologically) tends to skew leftward of current district. I thought that was interesting...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

One of her advisers told me that McHenry (ideologically) tends to skew leftward of current district. I thought that was interesting...

Good lord. Are people in that part of the country Mussolini-style fascists?

[Verily]

One of her advisers told me that McHenry (ideologically) tends to skew leftward of current district. I thought that was interesting...

Good lord. Are people in that part of the country Mussolini-style fascists?

Wealthy suburbs in the South (Montgomery County, TX; Forsyth County, GA; Shelby County, AL; Lexington County, SC; DeSoto County, MS; etc.) are politically probably the nastiest places in the country.

McHenry's district has some black voters to mitigate how Republican it would otherwise be, but it's still nasty.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I hate this new map.

[Devils30]

The new maps are even more absurd...I honestly wouldn't be shocked if this is rejected by DOJ and then the courts.

[krazen1211]

I hope this map will be heading to the courts.

Oh, it will. You're just unlikely to get anything there. This map is of course vicious as they are out for blood.

Georgia will be fun.

[freepcrusher]

my hope is that the majorities are spread so thin that a 1974-like election occurs again something this decade so krazen will go into a corner and cry like a five year old.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

my hope is that the majorities are spread so thin that a 1974-like election occurs again something this decade so krazen will go into a corner and cry like a five year old.

President Bachmann could deliver a 1974 style midterm for the Democrats.

[BigSkyBob]

my hope is that the majorities are spread so thin that a 1974-like election occurs again something this decade so krazen will go into a corner and cry like a five year old.

Well, it is my "hope" as well. The last map had, ,maybe, three competitive seats [barring drunken assaults of filming cameramen.] If the new map has ten, then so much the better! If all ten GOP members face the threat of having to listen to the folks back home, or be sacked, so much the better!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I hope this map will be heading to the courts.

Oh, it will. You're just unlikely to get anything there. This map is of course vicious as they are out for blood.

Georgia will be fun.

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

[krazen1211]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.