2013 Elections in Germany

[Velasco]

The holiday season is gradually coming to an end, and the "hot phase" of campaigning begins:
 - Angela Merkel has volunteered as high school teacher, enlightening a school class in Berlin on life in the former GDR, That's probably the closest she will ever get to taxi-driving....

I watched a lovely pic yesterday in the press. Chancellor Merkel adores children, doesn't she? It's not very original for an electoral campaign. The school might project The Lives of Others or something else instead.

Can anybody translate gemütlich?. Someone used the word to describe the German environment today.

[Hifly]

Gemütlich means "cosy".

[Viewfromthenorth]

("Selbstbediener" is somewhat hard to translate correctly... the best I can do is "Chronicly Greedy/Corrupt Union").

As a Norwegian, I'm guessing the word Selbstdiener would mean someone who only serves themselves, or similar.

[Tender Branson]

C = Chronical
S = Self-Serving
U = Union

[Franknburger]

The latest one from the Greens:



The picture shows Transport Minister Ramsauer:
"Staff shortage? I only understand train-station" - a German colloquial meaning "I don't (want to) get it".

[According to Wikipedia, the colloquial emerged at the end of WW I among German soldiers. Tired of the war, the only thing they wanted to speak about was returning home. So they only understood "train station" (->the trip home), nothing else.]

[You kip if you want to...]

("Selbstbediener" is somewhat hard to translate correctly... the best I can do is "Chronicly Greedy/Corrupt Union").

As a Norwegian, I'm guessing the word Selbstdiener would mean someone who only serves themselves, or similar.

In British English, a 'shyster' basically, I'm assuming.

[Franknburger]

In British English, a 'shyster' basically, I'm assuming.

The correct term is actually Amigo.

While the current case is much more banal, it ties in with an established pattern that, among others, also involved CSU "Übervater" Franz-Josef Strauss and his son, Max Strauss.

[buritobr]

Forsa 14/08/2013
CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 23%
Grünen: 13%
Linkspartei: 8%
FDP: 5%

If the results on the election day were
CDU/CSU: 39,5%      FDP: 5,5%
CDU/CSU+FDP would have 45%

If the results were
CDU/CSU: 40,5%      FDP: 4,5%
CDU/CSU+FDP would have 40,5% because FDP would have zero


Do you consider the possibility that some CDU voters cast a strategic vote for the FDP in order to secure that FDP have seats in the Bundestag?
Is it possible that too many CDU voters do that and then the final results be 35% to CDU/CSU and 10% to FDP?

[Tender Branson]

New ARD and ZDF polls are out and together with the new Forsa poll, the average is:

46% CDU/CSU-FDP
45% SPD-Greens-Left
  3% Pirates
  6% Others

Holiday-season will be over soon, but it seems the polls have shown no significant changes.

[ERvND]

Is it possible that too many CDU voters do that and then the final results be 35% to CDU/CSU and 10% to FDP?

I expect this to happen; at least it was what happened in the most recent state elections, where the FDP was estimated at ca. 4-5% and ended up at 8-9%.

The problem for the CDU is that they have no control over / means against this phenomenon. Their voters are not dumb; if they see the FDP at 5% and expect the result to be close, some of them will always cast a strategic vote, no matter what Merkel might say.     

[Velasco]

Gemütlich means "cosy".

"Cosy", yes. I questioned for the meaning of the word because German language has certain subtleties and because of it a was hoping that some German speaker was explaining to me. I've read the word in an article where the author says Germany is in a gemütlich era (quiet and grey). In a bad translation "among citizens there has spread the conviction of which there's nothing like being at home. Occasionally, by the chinks of the windows, some echoes filter of the noise that causes the economic crisis thereabouts, particularly in the south of Europe. So foreign problems guarantee the satisfaction on the state of things in the proper country." Later it says that there are not absence of experts who notice the risks of policies focused solely in the short term, but this neither affects by no means the general atmosphere nor influences a campaign exempt from ideological debate.

[Hifly]

Do you not think I'm a German speaker
I think the author is insinuating that Germany is in a comfortable era, or any equivalent synonym for comfortable.

[Franknburger]

There have also been Emnid and INSA polls last week, as well pretty stable and pointing towards a possible tie between CDU-FDP and SPD-Greens-Linke (I may post averages later, when I have more time).

The ARD poll (infratest dimap) also asked for coalition preferences. Among CDU voters, the split was:
CDU-FDP       31%
CDU-SPD       31%
CDU-Greens  27%

This means that about one-third of CDU voters, or about 12% of all voters, may consider a FDP "loan vote". How many of them will actually vote FDP is difficult to estimate.  In Lower Saxony this January, it was nearly 50%, while long-term observations rather point to 20-25%.
As such, the FDP loan vote may be anything between 2.5 and 6 per cent.
Judged by raw polling data published by ZDF (FG Wahlen), generic FDP support is around 3%. So the FDP total (generic loan) should range anywhere between 5.5 and 9 per cent.

The FDP loan vote is one of the most tricky questions. It obviously depends on how many potential loan voters assume the FDP to already be safely in, which in turn depends on the polling coming out over the next weeks (a  paradox situation- the higher FDP polling results, the lower their vote is probably to get). It also depends whether potential loan voters see a realistic chance for the CDU-FDP coalition gaining majority, or assume a grand coalition as most likely outcome. In the latter case, they would rather withhold the loan in order to strengthen the CDU's weight within a grand coalition.

Gemütlich means "cosy".

A blog that tried to find an appropriate transaction also offered "comfortable", "snug", "homely", "placid",  "unhurried" and "relaxed". The best translation is probably ""the feeling of sitting in front of a fire with a glass of port"
The literal translation would be "be-mood-like" (as "in the mood", "mood -> modest").

[Velasco]

Do you not think I'm a German speaker
I think the author is insinuating that Germany is in a comfortable era, or any equivalent synonym for comfortable.

If you speak German, my apologies. Perhaps is insinuating some shade of comfort.

A blog that tried to find an appropriate transaction also offered "comfortable", "snug", "homely", "placid",  "unhurried" and "relaxed". The best translation is probably ""the feeling of sitting in front of a fire with a glass of port"
The literal translation would be "be-mood-like" (as "in the mood", "mood -> modest").

With a glass of port and a blanket, I guess. There's nothing like feeling warm and comfortable indoors when outside is cold and snowy, like in Berlin last March. It's incredible all the debate around the meaning of a word in that forum (are "gemütlich" and "bequem" the same thing?, etc). Thanks.

[ERvND]

The FDP loan vote is one of the most tricky questions. It obviously depends on how many potential loan voters assume the FDP to already be safely in, which in turn depends on the polling coming out over the next weeks (a  paradox situation- the higher FDP polling results, the lower their vote is probably to get).

That's also one of the few aspects under which the Bavarian state election (one week ahead of the federal election) might be of some significance.

If the FDP fails to reach 5% there - and Bavaria is one of the states where this is entirely possible - the loan votes will flock to them en masse in the federal election.

[buritobr]

It is not very hard to control the FDP loan vote. It is necessary only to say: "CDU voters born on January will vote FDP. The CDU voters keep voting CDU"

[Tender Branson]

New YouGov poll on likely turnout:



69% - Yes, will vote
16% - Undecided
12% - Will not vote
  2% - No opinion

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2013-08/yougov-umfrage-bundestagswahl

History shows that only a tiny amount of the "Undecided" people are voting as well.

So ca. 70% turnout (+/- 3%)

[Viewfromthenorth]

No change there, then. I suppose what is practically a guaranteed re-election for Merkel is not all that exciting.

[Franknburger]

Interesting new EMNID polls: They have done a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll for a local newspaper. As the third-smallest state, it typically does not get much weight in national polling, so this poll may help to gain some insight into trends in the East.  Moreover, it is Angela Merkel's 'home state'. This is the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll since the 2009 federal election:

CDU              36 (+3)
FDP                2  (-8)
CDU-FDP       38 (-5)

SPD              24 (+7.5)
Greens           6 (+0.5)
SPD-Greens  30 (+8)

Linke            23 (-6)
NPD               3 (--)
Pirates           2 (--)
AfD                2 (+2)
others            2 (+1)

Quite a swing from Linke to SPD. CDU collects back FDP "loan votes" (that may be re-loaned again
in autumn), but loses to both SPD and AfD.

If these results are representative for the East as a whole (and a Brandenburg poll from May with similar trends suggests they may well be), the Linke, but also CDU may face unpleasant surprises in the East in the upcoming federal election.

On to the latest EMNID national poll. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern results are included, but the MV interviews were carried out on top of the regular sample. Changes to previous week in brackets:

CDU        40 (-1)
SPD        24 (-1)
Greens    12 (-1)
Linke        8 (--)
FDP          6 (+1)
Pirates     4 (+1)
AfD          1 (-2)
Others     5 (+2)

It is still holiday season in major states (NRW, BW, BY, SAT, SN, TH), so trends should not be over-interpreted. Nevertheless, two things are worth noting:

1.) This is the first poll for some time showing the Pirates at 4%. If other polls come with similar results, we might get a Pirate loan vote effect as well - the easiest way to prevent a black-yellow majority is getting the Pirates above the 5% threshold. This could be quite a game changer (and pollsters' nightmare).
2.) 5% "others", and AfD in decline, might indicate right-wing disappointment with "tame Prof. Dr.s", and a trend towards NPD and REPs instead. It is also worth noting that NPD support in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has obviously not suffered from the NSU affair (neo-Nazi terrorist attacks against Turkish small business owners), and we have to account for a possible "shy NPD" effect.

[Tender Branson]

Today at 7pm local (in ca. 1 hour) a town-hall style discussion with SPD-frontrunner Steinbrück takes place at RTL.

You can watch it here:

http://schoener-fernsehen.com

Click on "RTL".

[ERvND]

If these results are representative for the East as a whole (and a Brandenburg poll from May with similar trends suggests they may well be), the Linke, but also CDU may face unpleasant surprises in the East in the upcoming federal election.

The Linke decline in the East was to be expected, so no real surprise here. CDU at 36 (+3), on the other hand, is nothing I'd call "unpleasant".

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Trying to get the Pirates above 5% is actually the riskiest, and therefore most moronic, strategy to prevent a black-yellow majority. If there was no Pirate party, black-yellow wouldn't have a majority (in polls) in the first place.

[minionofmidas]

If these results are representative for the East as a whole (and a Brandenburg poll from May with similar trends suggests they may well be), the Linke, but also CDU may face unpleasant surprises in the East in the upcoming federal election.

The Linke decline in the East was to be expected, so no real surprise here. CDU at 36 (+3), on the other hand, is nothing I'd call "unpleasant".

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Trying to get the Pirates above 5% is actually the riskiest, and therefore most moronic, strategy to prevent a black-yellow majority. If there was no Pirate party, black-yellow wouldn't have a majority (in polls) in the first place.

Thinking like that is exactly "moronic"...

and very widespread among SPD and Green activists re the Left. "If they'd not split all those votes would be belong to us and no problem with that Darmstadt woman now" (where "now" is 2008). Puh-leeze. There's a reason there's a Pirate core vote roughly identical to the AfD serious potential (ie 2.odd%) that's been irretrievably lost unless they get over 5%... and that reason is you (where you is the established parties' earlier conduct).

I always expected the Pirates to get renewed traction during the campaign (and AfD to do nothing of the sort)... the question was only ever "will it be enough? will it be soon enough?" Jury's still out on that one, obviously.

[minionofmidas]

I met Ulli Nissen yesterday. The SPD had set up in front of the Lokalbahnhof REWE and as I was passing I was adressed "Hello, I'm Ulli Nissen and I'm your SPD Bundestag candidate". I told her she wasn't, that I live in the City rather than Sachsenhausen. She conceded the point but pressed the need to give at least the first vote to the SPD anyways, pointing out that even Fischer back in the day didn't get even 20% and that Erika Steinbach is, well, Erika Steinbach. She was nice enough to talk to and clearly had me pegged for a regular Green voter, on which point I didn't disabuse her.

She won't win though. Meanwhile, Steinbach looks like a garishly painted corpse even on her own election poster.

 (Not the poster itself, but it is the picture used for it.)

This was, like, the number 2 or so google result searching for "Erika Steinbach Wahlplakat":

[Franknburger]

If these results are representative for the East as a whole (and a Brandenburg poll from May with similar trends suggests they may well be), the Linke, but also CDU may face unpleasant surprises in the East in the upcoming federal election.

The Linke decline in the East was to be expected, so no real surprise here. CDU at 36 (+3), on the other hand, is nothing I'd call "unpleasant".

The surprise is not with the trend, but with its size. Current national polling suggests the Linke losing 4% overall.  A 6% decline in MV, or even 9% in Brandenburg as suggested by polling from May,  would be quite difficult to overcome. Recent election results (Lower Saxony state -4%, Schleswig-Holstein local -4.4%), and state level polls from the West (Bavaria -3.5, Berlin -5.2, Hesse -3.5, NRW -5.4) don't suggest the Linke will be able to compensate substantial losses in the East by stronger showing in the West.
The same applies to the CDU. Compared to an overall 6-7% gain against 2009 as suggested by national polling, 3% gain in Angela Merkel's home state is nothing to be really excited about.

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Trying to get the Pirates above 5% is actually the riskiest, and therefore most moronic, strategy to prevent a black-yellow majority. If there was no Pirate party, black-yellow wouldn't have a majority (in polls) in the first place.
[/quote]
You are correct to point out that we will be talking about voters' risk-return considerations. At Pirates around 2.5, and black-yellow one point short of gaining majority, as most polls showed in early summer, I agree with your assessment. The latest EMNID poll, however, has black-yellow leading by 2%, and the Pirates at 4%. If further polls come out with similar results, the risk-return assessment of a Pirate "loan vote" changes quite a lot.

Otherwise, I agree with Midas. I have already in earlier posts expressed my disappointment with the Green's original campaign strategy (focus on SPD issues like rents, minimum wage, "tax the wealthy", instead on green core issues, neglecting the Pirate topics of privacy, direct democracy etc.), and these mistakes appear to fire back now. The Greens are trying to steer against with their new series of black & white posters, but that may become a case of "too little, too late".
[I spent the weekend in Berlin. You don't see any of the original Green posters there, just the new b&w series...]

[minionofmidas]

The Green strategy is to be seen as the serious intra-system opposition party. It's a sound strategy given what a joke the federal SPD has become and will pay rich dividends. But it does leave an opening on hte left.