Hillary Wins

[MycroftCZ]

July 8th, 2021: GOP Tax Bill Passes Congress


Congressional Republicans have passed the GOP's Tax Plan, with 230 votes in the House. 18 Republicans voted against the bill while only 3 Democrats voted for it. This is the first mostly partisan legislative victory for President Kasich. The bill also passed the Senate, with 52 votes. Montana Senator Steve Bullock, a Democrat, voted for the bill. No other Democrats supported the bill, maybe hurting their standings as moderates amongst party leaders. Missouri Democrat Jason Kander voted "no", a daring move as his reelection bid in a red state is next year. Louisiana Senator Mitch Landrieu, another Democrat, voted with his party on a major GOP piece of legislation for the first time in his 6 months in the Senate, marking a move left as Louisiana Democrats have expressed concerns that he is too willing to vote with Republicans.   

July 21st, 2021: Ward, Blackburn, Lee Announce "Conservative Caucus"


Three Republican Senators have announced that they will challenge President Kasich in the Senate, arguing that he is not conservative enough. Senators Kelli Ward of Arizona, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Mike Lee of Utah say that they are not afraid to vote against GOP legislation if they don't believe it is conservative enough. Ward even went to so far as to say she will vote against bills she likes just to keep the "RINO" Kasich from getting wins for his administration. They also said that they expect more Republicans to join their group. While this is not a formal caucus and the senators say they will not change party registration, this could cause headaches amongst the Republican Leadership, who are trying to hold together their slim majority. Ward and Blackburn would not rule out a primary challenge to Kasich in 2024, while Lee said that he will support Kasich to "stop another Democratic President".

August 1st, 2021: Isakson Will Retire


76-year-old Johnny Isakson will leave the Senate when his term expires next year. The Georgia Republican has served in the Senate since 2005 and in Congress since 1991. Isakson is the senior Senator from Georgia and a staple of conservative politics in that state. This retirement could have something to do with Georgia's shifting political landscape, moving further to the Democrats every election cycle. Democrats have already said they will target the Senate seat in next years midterms and the top recruit for the party would be former State Senator and 2018 Gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams. Possible Republican candidates include Governor Casey Cagle or Congresswoman Karen Handel.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 36%

[MycroftCZ]

August 12th, 2021: Ryan Unveils Bill to Reduce Funding for Planned Parenthood


Speaker Ryan and the Republicans have unveiled a bill that drastically defunds Planned Parenthood, a long-time conservative dream. Currently, the federal government gives $528 million to Planned Parenthood through Medicaid. This bill brings that number down to $200 million. Ryan and Republicans say that this is to stop the "illegal" actions of Planned Parenthood and to free up funds for other government agencies. Democrats are expected to strongly oppose this bill and are already aggressively campaigning against it via social media with the hashtag #ProtectWomen. Vice President Kay Hagan even said that she will vote "no" if it comes to a tie in the Senate.

August 21st, 2021: Grassley Will Retire


Longtime Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley will retire in 2022, opening up a Senate seat in a state that is shifting out of battleground and into Republican territory. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981, winning reelection by 25 points and only losing one county in 2016. Now, Democrats are hinging there hopes of keeping Iowa within reach on this seat, hoping to recruit former Governor of the state and Sec. of Agriculure under Obama and Clinton, Tom Vilsack. Vilsack has remained silent on the rumors that he's considering running and Republicans will agrue that this is not the Iowa of 2008, when Barack Obama won the state by 9 points. Top Republican recruits would be former Congressmen Rod Blum or Tom Latham.   

August 27th, 2021: Fairfax Vs. Forbes in Virginia


The Lt. Governor of Virginia versus a former Congressman is the matchup in Virginia's Governor race in November. Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax, who is the second African American to hold statewide office in Virginia, defeated 4 minor candidates to win the Democratic Party nomination for Governor tonight, while former Congressman Randy Forbes defeated former state Senator Jeff McWaters. This is seen as the first big test if the Republicans have momentum because of President Kasich's popularity or if Democrats will make gains, being the party out of power. Fairfax is a good candidate and appeals to the growing liberal base in Virginia while Forbes is a moderate who could win back the DC suburbs wich have gone blue recently. 

August 31st, 2021: Bill to Defund Planned Parenthood Narrowly Passes House


The Republicans narrowly passed a bill in the House that will reduce funding for Planned Parenthood today, with 221 votes. 24 Republicans voted against the bill, mostly moderate women. All Democrats voted against the measure. The bill is expected to not pass the Senate, with many women Republican Senators likely to oppose the bill. Even if the bill comes to a 50-50 tie, Vice President Hagan is expected to vote no on the bill, killing a Republican agenda item and bucking her own administration. Virginia Senator Barabara Comstock seems like the most likely to vote no and has not yet announced support or opposition to the bill. Comstock has been historically pro-life but has tacked center on a lot of issues since being elected in Virginia, an increasingly blue state.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 39%

[America Needs R'hllor]

I hope the abortion bill does come to a 50-50 tie

[JG]

Most interesting timeline on this forum. Keep up the good work!

[BigVic]

Enjoying it. The 2022 midterms will be interesting

[MycroftCZ]

Most interesting timeline on this forum. Keep up the good work!

Thanks!

Enjoying it. The 2022 midterms will be interesting

Definitely. Manchin and Kasich bring some interesting people into the midterms

[MycroftCZ]

September 1st, 2021: Unemployment Rises to 5.3%


New job report numbers for August are bad for President Kasich, as national unemployment went up to 5.3% from 4.9% last month. Kasich's plan to bring jobs back to rural America seems to be failing too, as rural unemployment is at 6.6%. These numbers are likely to hurt President Kasich, as many voted for him because of his fiscal conservativism and big plans to bring back lost jobs from overseas. Kasich said the numbers are "just numbers" and said that he believes they will go back up by the end of the year. The Kasich administration has remained pretty silent on the numbers, hoping that the buzz around unemployment back above 5% will die down.

September 7th, 2021: Bucking Kasich, Hagan Votes No on Planned Parenthood Bill


In a huge move that will likely hurt President Kasich's popularity, Vice President Hagan has voted no on a GOP bill that would defund Planned Parenthood in the Senate. All 49 Democrats voted against the bill, joined by one Republican, Virginia Senator Barbara Comstock. This resulted in a 50-50 tie in the Senate, which is broken by the Vice President. Hagan, even though she serves under a Republican President, kept true to her Democratic, pro-choice ideals and voted against the bill. This is the first major step away from the Kasich administration that Hagan has taken, showing a willingness to go against the President on key issues. Some Democrats are even saying that Hagan may run against Kasich in 2024, leaving the ticket and forcing Kasich to pick another Vice President.

September 15th, 2021: Burr Retiring


North Carolina Republican Senator Richard Burr will retire in 2022, keeping a promise that this would be his last term. Burr ran in 2016 that the 2016 campaign would be his last and that promise could have pushed him over the finish line, narrowly beating former state Representative Deborah Ross. Democrats picked up a North Carolina Senate seat in last year and hope that they can turn the state completely blue if they flip the seat. North Carolina also has a Democratic Governor. Possible Democratic candidates include Governor Roy Cooper and state Senator Terry Van Duyn. Republicans include state Senator Jim Davis or former Governor Pat McCrory.  

September 22nd, 2021: Pataki Launches NY Governor Bid


At the age of 76, former New York Governor George Pataki, a Republican, wants his old job back. Pataki unsuccessfully ran for President in 2016 and is considered a moderate by many GOP operatives. Pataki says that New York needs a new direction and that he hopes to keep New York Republicans relevant. Republicans have not won statewide in New York since 2002. Pataki has been out of public office since 2006 and maybe a little rusty on the campaign trail. Pataki faces tough odds against Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul in a very blue state. This race could get very expensive, very quickly, as a Republican heavyweight goes to battle to try and save Republicans in the northeast after Republicans lost their last Senator north of Pennsylvania last year.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 42%

[Sir Mohamed]

Great TL! The conservartive anger about Kasich is very well written.

[MycroftCZ]

October 5th, 2021: Cotton Joins Conservative Caucus


Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton has joined three other Senators in a group that will try and stop President Kasich from giving in on more liberal stanced on the issues. The group was announced over the summer and so far includes Sen. Kelli Ward, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Sen. Mike Lee and now, Sen. Tom Cotton. These three Senators could prove promlematic to the President, as the Republicans try to pass legislation in the Senate with a 51 seat majority. Possible future members of the caucus include Senators Kris Kobach of Kansas or Josh Hawley of Missouri. All the the Senators are young and are seen as rising stars in the GOP but this caucus could hurt them amoung moderate Republicans and independents in their reelection bids or possible White House runs.  

October 19th, 2021: Virginia Polls Show Close Race


The Virginia Governor's race tight, according to new polls. Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax seems to have an advantage over his Republican opponent, former Congressman Randy Forbes, but polls are within the margin of error. RCP's average of the polls shows Faifax up by 1.2% but that includes polls from early September, when Fairfax had a larger lead. The race is tightening in part of Forbes spending a lot of money in the DC suburbs, hoping to appeal to moderates in these swing counties. Forbes has spent $3.2 million on TV ads while Fairfax is investing in ground game, having huge canvasses up and down the state from now until election day. Former President Hillary Clinton and current Governor Ralph Northam are expected to campaign with Fairfax later this month. The New Jersey Governor race is not as close, with almost all pundits saying Governor Phil Murphy is on track to win a second term over state Senator Chris Brown.

Virginia Governor:
Fairfax: 48%
Forbes: 46%

New Jersey Governor:
Murphy: 58%
Brown: 40%

October 27th, 2021: Leahy Announces Retirement


The most senior United States Senator is retiring. Democrat Patrick Leahy, 81, has served in the Senate since 1975 from the state of Vermont. Leahy is the President pro tempore emirtus of the Snate, meaning he is the most senior member of the minority party. Leahy has been a staple of Vermont politics for years and now is finally stepping down, making way for an easy Democratic hold in a very liberal state. Vermont does have a Republican Governor, Phil Scott, but he has said he has no interest in serving in Washington. The obvious choice for Democrats would be Congressman Peter Welch but Vermont has never sent a woman to Congress and a big push will likely be made to nominate a woman for that seat. Republicans will probably look to businessman Scott Milne, candidate for Senate in 2016 and Governor in 2014.

November 1st, 2021: Hagan Approval Rating Higher Than Kasich


Vice President Hagan has a higher approval rating than that of President Kasich, with 66% of Americans approving of her job performance. Only 54% approve of Kasich. Vice President's typically have higher approval marks than Presidents but a 12 point discrepancy in abnormal and shows that Hagan's independence from the Kasich administration is making her very popular. President Kasich has been suffering from falling approval numbers, though he is still popular. His approval numbers have fallen 10 points in 4 months, mostly from bad economic numbers and legislative defeats in Congress. This will likely put more gas on the fire of rumors that Hagan is running for President in 2024.

November 2nd, 2021: Democrats Hold Virginia Narrowly, New Jersey By Wider Margin


Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax claimed victory in Virginia's Governor race, keeping that state in Democratic control for another 4 years. Republicans continue their losing streak in a once solidly red state, not winning a statewide election since 2009. Fairfax becomes the second African American Governor of Virginia and will be the only African American Governor in America when he is sworn in. This race was very close, with the moderate Randy Forbes, the Republican, making inroads in the suburbs of Washington DC but it wasn't enough and this victory cements Virginia as a blue state. The new Lt. Governor of Virginia is also a Democrat, former campaign operative Susan Platt. Governor Phil Murphy was also reelected in New Jersey over state Senator Chris Brown in a 14 point margin.

Virginia Governor: 99% Reporting
Fairfax: 50.1%
Forbes: 48.6%

New Jersey Governor: 98% Reporting
Murphy: 56.3%
Brown: 42.1%

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 40%

[Mycool]

Love this still. However, Justin Fairfax would be the second African American governor of Virginia, with the first being Douglas Wilder. Fun fact: he was also the first African American governor elected in this country.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Hagan should never have been picked lmao it’ll be crazy to see a Hagan vs Kasich race. Go Kasich!

[JG]

Hagan should never have been picked lmao it’ll be crazy to see a Hagan vs Kasich race. Go Kasich!

Not sure how Hagan would get the democratic nomination after actively helping a republican win the White House.

Very interested to see how all of this will play out.

[MycroftCZ]

November 11th, 2021: DNC Recruits Finkenauer, Manchin Recruits Vilsack for Iowa Senate


So far, the national Democratic party has just endorsed the recruitments of former Senator Joe Manchin's CSDC. In Kentucky and Arkansas, the DNC has said they support the candidates that Manchin has brought into the race. Not in Iowa. When powerful Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley announced his retirement, Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer was recruited by the DNC and started out as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the open Iowa Senate seat. Now, she has a powerful opponent in former Iowa Governor and Sec. of Agriculture under Clinton and Obama, Tom Vilsack. Vilsack had turned down an offer to run by the DNC in September but now, has reversed his decision, thanks to Joe Manchin. This primary will likely be very close, with the DNC backing Finkenauer and Manchin backing Vilsack.

November 20th, 2021: Kasich Approval Continues Downward Trend


It looks like the county may be souring on President Kasich's folksy bipartisanship, with new polls showing Kasich only has a 50% approval rating, sinking 14 points since July. President Kasich started out with high approval numbers, even hitting 72% approval after the passage of his Balanced Budget Amendment, But now, with increasing economic concerns and a lack of accomplishments recently, the country is turning against him. Kasich was not elected by a majority of Americans, with the conservatives split between him and businessman Donald Trump. So, there is a possibility of Kasich becoming more unpopular than popular. Kasich's Vice President, Kay Hagan, is still very popular and is seen as an independent voice in the administration, something Americans like. Kasich is still not unpopular, with only 45% of Americans disapproving of his job performance but these numbers show that Kasich is losing popularity quickly.

November 24th, 2021: Inspired By Kasich, Rice Jumps Into California Governor Race


At a rally in Palo Alto today, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced she will run for Governor of California, taking on the unpopular incumbent Governor, Gavin Newsom. Rice attended Stanford University for college and has lived in California since 2003, despite being born in Alabama. Rice will run as a moderate Republican, trying to take back the Golden State after years of Democratic control. Gavin Newsom, the current Governor, is very unpopular, being seen as "just another politician", with only 38% of Californians approving of his job performance. Rice hopes to capitalize on his unpopularity and win in a state that has not elected a Republican Governor since 2006. Rice says she was "inspired" by President Kasich's moderate tone as President and hopes that there is still room in the GOP for moderates, like her.

November 31st, 2021: Daschle Returns to Politics, Running for Old Senate Seat


Former Senate Democratic Leader from South Dakota, Tom Daschle, wants his old job back. At 73, Daschle is running for the seat that he lost to then-Congressman John Thune back in 2004. Thune was seen as safe for reelection in 2022 until Daschle threw his hat into the ring. Daschle is the most high-profile recruit of the CSDC(Common Sense Democrats Campaign) and is seen a likely to win back his seat. Daschle, if elected, would start off high in seniority and one of the most powerful Senators on Capitol Hill, a point that the Daschle campaign will likely stress. Senator John Thune said "bring it on" and hopes to recreate his narrow victory over Daschle in 2004.

Kasich Approval Rating:
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 45%

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Will Hillary Clinton run in 2024?

[MycroftCZ]

Will Hillary Clinton run in 2024?

NO!! She'd be 77 on election day 2022 and she realizes that the party needs a new direction, after 30 years of at least one Clinton being in public office or running for office.

[libertpaulian]

Will Hillary Clinton run in 2024?

NO!! She'd be 77 on election day 2022 and she realizes that the party needs a new direction, after 30 years of at least one Clinton being in public office or running for office.

Not to mention America would be sick of Baby Boomers by that point.  I think Kasich would be the last Boomer President.

[DevinM626]

April 23rd, 2021: Lincoln Jumps Into Arkansas Senate Race for Old Seat


In the first major recruitment of former Senator Joe Manchin's "Common Sense Democrats Campaign" or SCDC, former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is jumping into the race for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Boozman. Lincoln lost to Boozman by 20 points back in 2010 and was not expected to enter this race. Manchin said that Lincoln was one of their "top possible recruits" and Lincoln said that she hopes to win the race for "old-school Democrats who remember when the South was battleground territory and not "red wall'". Lincoln was a very moderate Democrat and is only 61, pretty young for a former Senator running for her old seat. Senator Boozman's campaign said that "Arkansas rejected Mrs. Lincoln 11 years ago. Arkansans want a conservative in Congress, not a liberal former Senator".

November 31st, 2021: Daschle Returns to Politics, Running for Old Senate Seat


Former Senate Democratic Leader from South Dakota, Tom Daschle, wants his old job back. At 73, Daschle is running for the seat that he lost to then-Congressman John Thune back in 2004. Thune was seen as safe for reelection in 2022 until Daschle threw his hat into the ring. Daschle is the most high-profile recruit of the CSDC(Common Sense Democrats Campaign) and is seen a likely to win back his seat. Daschle, if elected, would start off high in seniority and one of the most powerful Senators on Capitol Hill, a point that the Daschle campaign will likely stress. Senator John Thune said "bring it on" and hopes to recreate his narrow victory over Daschle in 2004.

Did Feingold winning his old seat back in this timeline have a ripple effect?

[MycroftCZ]

April 23rd, 2021: Lincoln Jumps Into Arkansas Senate Race for Old Seat


In the first major recruitment of former Senator Joe Manchin's "Common Sense Democrats Campaign" or SCDC, former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is jumping into the race for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Boozman. Lincoln lost to Boozman by 20 points back in 2010 and was not expected to enter this race. Manchin said that Lincoln was one of their "top possible recruits" and Lincoln said that she hopes to win the race for "old-school Democrats who remember when the South was battleground territory and not "red wall'". Lincoln was a very moderate Democrat and is only 61, pretty young for a former Senator running for her old seat. Senator Boozman's campaign said that "Arkansas rejected Mrs. Lincoln 11 years ago. Arkansans want a conservative in Congress, not a liberal former Senator".

November 31st, 2021: Daschle Returns to Politics, Running for Old Senate Seat


Former Senate Democratic Leader from South Dakota, Tom Daschle, wants his old job back. At 73, Daschle is running for the seat that he lost to then-Congressman John Thune back in 2004. Thune was seen as safe for reelection in 2022 until Daschle threw his hat into the ring. Daschle is the most high-profile recruit of the CSDC(Common Sense Democrats Campaign) and is seen a likely to win back his seat. Daschle, if elected, would start off high in seniority and one of the most powerful Senators on Capitol Hill, a point that the Daschle campaign will likely stress. Senator John Thune said "bring it on" and hopes to recreate his narrow victory over Daschle in 2004.

Did Feingold winning his old seat back in this timeline have a ripple effect?

Sorta. Feingold definitely proved that old Senators can come back and win seats. Also, Manchin's recruiting old Senators because of their name recognition and it doesn't take as much work to find donors, campaign staff, etc. for established names in Democratic politics. Also, Democrats tend to bring back old Senators/Governors more than Republicans do(Strickland, Bayh, Feingold, Kerrey, Bredesen IRL, ) so this isn't really new for Democrats but it's happening more with Manchin.   

[Kingpoleon]

Interesting.... Welch probably retires in 2022, too, since 77 is rather old to enter the Senate.

[MycroftCZ]

December 5th, 2021: RNC Worried About Huge Losses in 2022, Reports Says


The new Conservative Caucus got it first win today, as it voted against a bill that would expand amnesty and also divert funds to the border patrol. The bill was voted against by the majority to Democrats, who said that the border patrol money was too much and that it would discourage immigrants to come through the border legally. Republicans voted for the bill because it would move toward securing the border and was supported by President Kasich. Three Democrats did vote for it, Steve Bullock(MT), Tom Udall(NM) and Mitch Landrieu(LA). But, all four Conservative Caucus members voted against it, killing the bill. They said this bill was too "liberal" and that is was "a prime example of Republicans not acting like a majority". Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Kelli Ward of Arizona and Mike Lee of Utah voted against it.

Kasich Approva; Rating:
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 43%

[Continential]

This TL is interesting, also could you have Mary Landrieu to run in Louisiana, and to have Jason Carter running in Georgia, and also to have Bryon Dorgan to run for Senate in North Dakota

[OBD]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO SMITH BEGONE

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Nice! I love Justin Fairfax, I hope he has a future in this TL

[MycroftCZ]

January 12th, 2022: Democrats Up 1 Point in Generic Ballot


A new poll shows the country in basically deadlocked in who they want to control to next Congress, with 45% saying they want Democratic control and 44% saying they want Republican control. These midterms is expected to be the tightest in recent memory, with both sides seeing pickup opputunites across the map. Democrats are bullish on their chance of taking back the Senate and the House but these polls show that races around the country will likely come down to a handful of votes. Republicans think that it is unlikely that Democrats will take the House, with 29 pickups needed to take the chamber. The DCCC says they plan to spend huge amounts of money on House races as Joe Manchin's CSDC funnels money into races where moderate Democrats have a chance in red states. The 2022 midterms looks like they will be the closest elections in years.

January 21st, 2021: Greitens Will Not Run for Senate, Endorses Wagner


Missouri Governor Eric Greitens announced today that he will not run for Senate in 2022, endorsing Congresswoman Ann Wagner for the seat. Wagner launched her campaign last year and was seen as the underdog in the GOP primary if Greitens ran but he has decided against a bid, making Wagner the presumptice nominee for the Senate seat. Wagner will face Senator Jason Kander, a Democrat, in a red state that Democrats can be successful in. Kander defeated Roy Blunt by just 489 votes in 2016, the closest election in that state's history. Kander has taken a moderate stance on many issues in the Senate but still faces a tough road to reelection, especially against a tough challenger like Ann Wagner.

February 5th, 2022: Amazon Announces New HQ in Rural West Virginia


President Kasich's plan to convince Amazon to build a new headquarters in rural American has worked, as the company and the President announced a new Amazon HQ in rural West Virginia today at a press conference. The President called this a "big win" and said that he was focused on getting out-of-work coal miners back into the workforce. The Amazon HQ will be located in Ghent, West Virginia, population 533. This will likely help this struggling town in the poorest state in the country and is a big political win for President Kasich as he hopes to raise his falling approval numbers. The Amazon HQ is expected to employ 50,000 people and will be a huge boon to the surrounding area of West Virginia. 

Kasich Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 47%
Approve: 47%

[CookieDamage]

I can see Amazon placing a new HQ in like Charleston or maybe an Appalachian city in Virginia, but such a rural area makes no sense. I mean this is an HQ we're talking about, not a regional distribution center. An HQ needs to be close to major population centers and in an area where there's good enough roads, transit systems, and somewhat of an economy in the region.