2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Person Man]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/409025-dem-poll-coffman-trails-dem-opponent-by-11-in-colorado

CO-6 Normington Petts (for End Citizens United): Crow (D) 49, Coffman (R-inc) 38

He was like the turd that just wouldn't flush. Coffman is a floater. Good Riddance!

[Person Man]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-tight-race-in-californias-45th-district

CA-45 GBA Strategies (End Citizens United/D poll): Porter (D) 48, Walters (R-inc) 47

What was it before?

[Person Man]

The "tightening" basically means that if the election were held today, Democrats might *only* gain about 30 seats, rather than 35-40. It's sickening how the Kavanaugh situation is somehow helping Republicans more, but that's the world we live in.

The polls aren’t showing any Kavanaugh effect on either side. QPac’s poll two days ago showed that the GOP got far worse marks than the Dems from Americans on the entire ordeal. Chill out.

Maybe the stigma around sexual assault is being lessened. Maybe something else happened. Maybe a bunch of people feel richer because they just saved a lot on their car insurance.

[Person Man]

PA-10 GCB: R+1 (47-46)

https://www.scribd.com/document/390025957/New-Public-Policy-Poll-in-PA10

How does that compare?

[Person Man]

The blue wave will probably recede and surge at least ten times before Election Day and we’ll have the same predictable flip outs on here

It's pretty fun, really. At least this race has been more stable than the one in 2016. There are also fewer fence sitters.

[Person Man]

Marist-

GCB is D+6 with registered voters

GCB is D+9 with those who say the midterms are very important to them so I take that as the Likely Voter sample.

Kavanaugh support is -9 with both RV and LV

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810021305.pdf#page=3

That's roughly unchanged since earlier this month...

[Person Man]

FL-18 (Global Strategy Group/Baer internal?):
Brian Mast (R-inc) 48
Lauren Baer (D) 45

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-37b1-d20d-a57f-b7b1e4d20000

Sucks for Mast...

[Person Man]

Good luck with using Landlines in Tuscon.

[Person Man]

A temporary blip is not a permanent development. There is still a month left. Plenty of developments left to affect this midterm course.

Don't forget that in October 2016, most of Atlas was convinced Hillary would be winning Arizona and Ohio.

I never thought she would win Ohio.

[Person Man]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

GCB
Democrats 54
Republicans 44
(seriously, I mean come on!)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-internal-republican-poll-shows-edwards-well-positioned-against-democrat-pappas/23586589

This was definitely an internal.

[Person Man]

Did we really need a topic for this, much less in the General Discussion thread?

He's trolling. This was all because some polls aged out of Sean Trende's average.

[Person Man]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

Have you tried #WalkingAway from a computer yet?

Dick Morris on steroids...

[Person Man]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

Were you here for the 2012 election?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/2dVJW

[Person Man]

Well you heard NYC Millenial Minority guys, the Democrats will get blown out in November, the GOP will gain seats, and the Presidency will be Republican forever.  

Might as well just tear down Democratic party and register as Republicans.  

Yeah, you might as well join the GOP at this point.

I would but I just can't afford to be Republican yet. Maybe if I get a promotion or something, I'll be making enough.

[Person Man]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.

But even then, I'd bet my bottom dollar we get a few low single digit generic ballot leads this week and probably a Rasmussen poll showing a Republican lead. The generic ballot average will continue to tighten and we'll get multiple articles about republicans turning a corner/democrats blowing it. But we have 5 weeks till the election, thats an absolute eternity in politics. All the hand wringing is gonna be incredibly annoying in the mean time but democrats should count themselves lucky republicans didnt draw this out any longer than they did.

That just sounds.. awful.

[Person Man]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.

But even then, I'd bet my bottom dollar we get a few low single digit generic ballot leads this week and probably a Rasmussen poll showing a Republican lead. The generic ballot average will continue to tighten and we'll get multiple articles about republicans turning a corner/democrats blowing it. But we have 5 weeks till the election, thats an absolute eternity in politics. All the hand wringing is gonna be incredibly annoying in the mean time but democrats should count themselves lucky republicans didnt draw this out any longer than they did.

That just sounds.. awful.

Why I think its a good week to take a break from everything political. Its gonna be a rough week for anybody rooting for a blue wave.

What do you see happening afterwards?

[Person Man]

House numbers still seem good...

[Person Man]

So as it appears now, there is no Kavanaugh bump for the GOP in the house.

[Person Man]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Why in the world would they change PA-07 from Lean Dem to Toss-up?  Was this a typo?

RCP has poll numbers "age out".

[Person Man]

You know, there are objective measurements for people's predictions.

[Person Man]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

It says on Wikipedia that its D+1.

[Person Man]

PA-10 (PPP)

Scott Perry (R) 44
George Scott (D) 43

https://www.scribd.com/document/390025957/New-Public-Policy-Poll-in-PA10#fullscreen&from_embed

It looks like the undecideds are split evenly between Clinton and Trump voters.

Is this one we need?

[Person Man]

PA-10 (PPP)

Scott Perry (R) 44
George Scott (D) 43

https://www.scribd.com/document/390025957/New-Public-Policy-Poll-in-PA10#fullscreen&from_embed

It looks like the undecideds are split evenly between Clinton and Trump voters.

Is this one we need?

Nah. The pundits all have it at lean R, which sounds about right to me. It used to be a massively underrated oppotunity though with lots of likely/safe R ratings.

That would seal it if we can pull through this soft patch.

[Person Man]

FL-15 (Club for Growth/Spano internal)

Ross Spano (R) 46
Kristen Carlson (D) 39

GCB is 48-44 Republican

https://twitter.com/actoraaronbooth/status/1049683886467416065?s=21

That would more or less collaborate a D+8 NPV.

[Person Man]

Democrats gain 3 points in CNN's Generic Ballot vs September:

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1049691950704672769

Kavanaugh  Bump

What a nice poll.

DOMINATING