Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That was pretty amusing.  Deeds seemed the weakest, sadly.

I think Deeds is DOA at this point, unfortunately. He can't raise money during the general assembly session, so he's out until April, and the primary is in June. His strategy of letting Moran and McAuliffe snipe at each other then swoop in and win the primary with 34% isn't looking too likely to work.

[Eraserhead]

I felt bad for Deeds. He has pathos but people with pathos don't generally win office. Moran was good. He is probably our only shot at beating Satan.

I loved, loved, loved when Terry got owned. "How's President Hillary Clinton?"

[Lief 🗽]

I'd really prefer Moran to win, but I think that McAuliffe probably will. And I think he'll have a decent shot at winning the governor's mansion.

Rep. Gerry Connolly talked to about twenty of the people in College Dems last night, and one guy asked him who he was supporting in the primary. He said that he wasn't committed to one of the three yet, but that Terry shouldn't be underestimated. Money is important, and the fact that he's raising gobs of it is good for the Democratic primary, because people like voting for someone who can raise a lot of money, so they have a good shot at the general, and it's good for the general, for obvious reasons, and because it shows to the people of Virginia that he has the kind of connections to bring job growth to the state. He also said that the carpetbagger claim probably won't hurt Terry, since all of Virginia's politicians are carpetbaggers. Connolly isn't some moderate hero either; he's very liberal, and I thought that he'd be pretty forcefully for Moran (the progressive in the race). I think McAuliffe's got this one locked up.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't think Terry has this one locked up.  We've got 4 months to go, and as we see Moran and Terry duke it out, Deeds will slowly creep up.  By the day of the primary, Moran and Terry are going to split their vote, allowing Deeds to win the nomination.

[Lunar]

yeah, well, at least Deeds is keeping his day job even though it means he can raise more money.

I think you're overplaying regionalism and the effect of Terry & Brian duking it out.  This is more about getting your voters to the polls through a complex organization than it is some sort of North vs. South thing.  And even though regionalism does play a role, it's a lot easier to get a sweeping organization in play in Northern Virginia's clustered Democratic areas than some sweeping expanse in Southern Virginia.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If we get a map like this (ignore the shading):


That could produce a victory for Deeds.  It would be a very narrow victory, but I think it would give Deeds the win.

[Lief 🗽]

All that matters is turnout. A ridiculously small number of people are going to be voting in an off-off-year gubernatorial primary.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

All that matters is turnout. A ridiculously small number of people are going to be voting in an off-off-year gubernatorial primary.

I think turnout will be very high compared to previous elections.  It still won't be very high, but it'll be higher than any previous Gubernatorial primary.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Anybody seen any polls recently?

[Lunar]

It's all be internal lately.  I think this thread already covered the Rasumussen poll taken Feb. 5th.

Polls don't mean anything anyway, it's too difficult to calculate what the turnout will be and, assuming it's 5% turnout or whatever, who will show up.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is going to be speaking to the Arlington Democrats on Wednesday, so I'm going to try and go see him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP has their Democratic primary tracking poll out:

Governor:

Terry McAuliffe - 21
Brian Moran - 19
Creigh Deeds - 14

Lt. Governor:

Jody Wagner - 9
Pat Edmonson - 6
Michael Signer - 5
Rich Savage - 4
Jon Bowerbank - 3

[Lief 🗽]

Wow. That poll is more than useless. I'm glad to see the worst candidate in 3rd place though.

[Lunar]

and the most electable against a very strong GOP candidate

[Lief 🗽]

and the most electable against a very strong GOP candidate

Nah. Polls I've seen show him to be about as electable as the others.

[Lunar]

Didn't you just say that polls this far out are useless?

They haven't been defined by a GOP opponent yet

[Lief 🗽]

And why would Deeds do any better than Moran or McAulliffe? Because he's an OMG SOUTHERN MODERATE BLUE DOG!!!11 ?

[Lunar]

He's not really a blue dog if you look at his record.  But yes, something in that.  Being from Virginia helps too.

[Eraserhead]

Deeds seems pretty pathetic when speaking in front of a crowd. I'll say that.

[Lief 🗽]

He's not really a blue dog if you look at his record.  But yes, something in that.  Being from Virginia helps too.

Not really, at all. Three of the last four Governors weren't originally Virginians (and the only one that was, Jim Gilmore, was the unpopular one). Many of Virginia's successful politicians weren't born and raised in the state.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is the best candidate; he's the only one with a chance to win.  McAuliffe and Moran are both too liberal to win statewide, that's just a fact.  The polling for them matters little at this point, because they haven't been clearly defined yet.  Voters know Deeds, and know that he is a good fit for them.

[Lunar]

Were they all from NoVa and spoke with a thick Boston accent?  Meh, I said it helps not that it's a prerequisite.  I'm not sure how you could argue that being more moderate isn't really important for Democrats to win in Virginia (Warner, Webb, Wilder, Kaine...)

[Lief 🗽]

Terry and Moran are hardly flaming liberals though, and from what I've seen of their campaigns, they're emphasizing common sense, economic issues, like job creation and the like.

And Obama's victory in Virginia was larger than Webb's or Kaine's (neither of whom are actually that moderate, at least compared to Warner or Wilder).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, I missed Deeds tonight; he was only there for part of the time, and I arrived too late

[JohnnyLongtorso]

According to Blue Commonwealth, Rich Savage has dropped out of the Lt. Governor's race, so that leaves just (just!) four Democrats in the race. Exciting!