Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, and Huntsman: Mitt Romney's downfall

[Maxwell]

Huntsman VP Selection:

Pat Toomey - Senator of Pennsylvania



John Thune - Senator of North Dakota



Brian Sandoval - Governor of Nevada



Rand Paul - Senator of Kentucky



Mitch Daniels - Governor of Indiana



"The GOP base will not settle for moderates, and they are currently outraged at the possibility of Brian Sandoval. That being said, besides that one odd selection his part (and somewhat of Rand Paul), it seems to GOP doesn't worry too much about Huntsman even if they aren't happy with him. And why should they? In the latest Rasmussen poll, a Republican leaning poll, Huntsman already leads by 5 points, and almost double digits with independents! It looks like its going to be a tough race for the President!" - Chris Matthews

Rasmussen Poll:
Jon Huntsman: 47%
Barack Obama: 42%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 8%

Toss-Ups Map

Map No Toss-Ups

"The most surprising thing about the state by state polls is Indiana: Social conservatives in Indiana are so outraged, that Huntsman only leads by a point... with 40% of the vote. Almost 20% of voters in the state are undecided, which leads one to wonder, is their a third party candidates that could stir the pot in the state? Probably not, and if Huntsman picks a more right-wing VP, or even Mitch Daniels, this epidemic will stop." - Chris Matthews

[NHI]

This is great! Go Huntsman!!

[Jerseyrules]

This is great! Go Huntsman!!

^
Huntsman / Paul 12!

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

This is great! Go Huntsman!!

^
Huntsman / Paul 12!

[Niemeyerite]

This is great! Go Huntsman!!

^
Huntsman / Paul 12!

I'd prefer a Obama vs Huntsman vs Paul race. Or some important politician running as the Constitution party candidate.

[Jerseyrules]

This is great! Go Huntsman!!

^
Huntsman / Paul 12!

I'd prefer a Obama vs Huntsman vs Paul race. Or some important politician running as the Constitution party candidate.

Well I would prefer to see a pragmatic-libertarian GOP, and maybe a President Rand Paul in 2020 or 2024 .

[Maxwell]

Rick Santorum jumps into the Presidential ring under the Constitution Party!




"I can not, and will not, allow the conservative voice to be silenced. This election has been narrowed down to a liberal and a moderate. Therefore, I am announcing my run under the Constitution party ballot, with my running mate, Michelle Bachmann, we will take back this country from the depths of socialism!" - Rick Santorum

"Due to Huntsman's strong standing with Independents, he only shifts from first to second with single digits to Obama, but Santorum's jumping into the race places him in a strong third place with 20% of the vote, and nearly all of the south. It looks like this election, due to utter turmoil between the conservatives, has landed into the hands of Barack Obama."

National Poll:
Barack Obama: 39%
Jon Huntsman: 33%
Rick Santorum: 20%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 6%

Toss-Up Map

No Toss-Ups Map

"Both of these candidates represent what got us into this mess: Republican policies on the economy that pushed us into a great recession. We're not done yet, we still have to make adjustments." - Barack Obama



"Barack Obama and Rick Santorum both represent extremism in American politics: Santorum's radical social conservatism and Obama's continued plunging government into business. Santorum will try to paint himself as a fighter for economic liberty, but his record proves otherwise. Similarly, Obama will paint himself as a fighter of liberty abroad, but that too, is at fault. I give American the choice of reason, the choice of liberty, and the choice of a new tomorrow." - Jon Huntsman

"As of today, we are getting news that Huntsman's list has narrowed: John Thune and Pat Toomey are no longer in consideration. Since Santorum split the conservative base, those two names, names that would've attempted Huntsman's consolidation of the republican base, are now eliminated because of Santorum's split with the party. Rand Paul looks like a favorable name, as does Mitch Daniels at the momente, and Sandoval's stock has gone up since the Santorum's abandonment of party." - Wolf Blitzer

[NHI]

Great update!!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The Constitution Party might not nominate Santorum. They are strongly in favor of Ron Paul's foreign policy, and despite their strong conservative social views, do not state that they should be forced down the peoples throats. A Santorum run under the Tea Party banner is more likely, IMO.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Couldn't Santorum have just not endorsed Huntsman and let the party activists nominate a "conservative"?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Couldn't Santorum have just not endorsed Huntsman and let the party activists nominate a "conservative"?

Huntsman really was the most conservative candidate, for whatever its worth

[Maxwell]

The Constitution Party might not nominate Santorum. They are strongly in favor of Ron Paul's foreign policy, and despite their strong conservative social views, do not state that they should be forced down the peoples throats. A Santorum run under the Tea Party banner is more likely, IMO.

I feel like, while this is true, Santorum would cause an influx of folks to the party, and cause the same thing that happened to Pat Buchanan's nomination of the Reform Party. It would probably destroy the Constitution Party.

Couldn't Santorum have just not endorsed Huntsman and let the party activists nominate a "conservative"?

Santorum originally cared about the party by endorsing Huntsman, but then his whole thinking went array when two things happened: 1. a third party showing for him proved he had a substantial audience different to that of Huntsman and Obama and 2. The possibility of two moderates on the ticket (The pure mention of Sandoval and Daniels).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The Constitution Party might not nominate Santorum. They are strongly in favor of Ron Paul's foreign policy, and despite their strong conservative social views, do not state that they should be forced down the peoples throats. A Santorum run under the Tea Party banner is more likely, IMO.

I feel like, while this is true, Santorum would cause an influx of folks to the party, and cause the same thing that happened to Pat Buchanan's nomination of the Reform Party. It would probably destroy the Constitution Party.

That makes a ton of sense. Thanks for clearing this up .

[Maxwell]

Santorum takes a lot of heat, Obama fumbles on what he'd do in a second term, and Huntsman's VP polling choices



"Look, Santorum's a nice guy and a good family man, but his views are just out of the mainstream. I endorsed Jon Huntsman for a reason: He can get the country back on the right track. Santorum's entire focus on social and cultural issues gives root to the fact that, he has no real economic plan for this country."

Meanwhile, at Fox News



"Santorum's brute actions in attempt to put his name out there show he is entirely in the business of self-promotion. From his record of big spending in Congress, to his ties to lobbyists, the man shows that, inspite of his rhetoric, he has no real character. He doesn't fight for anyone, only for his own self-interest"



"What the man is doing is outrageous. I couldn't care if Elmer Thud was the republican nominee, and Jon Huntsman is certainly that, but we need to stand by this nominee. Santorum doing this is just devastating and just hands the election to Obama. We don't need four more years of THIS.



Sean Hannity: "Why wouldn't you have just endorsed Huntsman?"
Rick Santorum: "I've stated the answer before, and its a simple one: I believe we need a real conservative out there, speaking on real conservative values!"
Sean Hannity: "You do realize that you won't win the White House, and are just dividing the vote."
Rick Santorum: "I don't believe so. I believe that most of America will realize I represent them. They are tired of government regulations, and they are tired of the liberal paradox of just letting you do whatever you want."
Sean Hannity: "But wasn't America founded on freedom, Mr. Santorum!"
Rick Santorum: "That's not the kind of freedom, I believe, that the founders would've endorsed. Certainly not the kind of freedom I endorse. I believe staunchly in family values and having the traditional family values."
Sean Hannity: "While I agree with you on a lot of issues, possibly more than Huntsman himself, I still think you are spiting the Party and giving the Election to Barack Obama."
Rick Santorum: "I don't think so, but thanks anyway."

Meanwhile, with Barack Obama



David Gregory: "What will your plan be for a second term?"
Barack Obama: "You know, David, that is a good question. From my perspective, what I need to do is to continue what I've been doing: bringing the American people to change Washington from the outside. Cause, look, we've still got work to do..."
David Gregory: "Anything specific about your second term?"
Barack Obama: "Well, since I would've won a second term, It would cause the GOP stop gating to stop, and we will try to work some things out in terms of what will happen with the economy and the debt and..."


"With the entrance of Santorum, he already gets bombarded by his former friends during the GOP Primary: Fox News. This bombardment shows in the negation of his poll numbers, he's already down 5 points just after his announcement. And Obama had a disasterous appearance on Meet The Press where he wasn't able to even address what he would do with a second term. Meanwhile, with Jon Huntsman's campaign, he seems to be holding the fort rather well, with disenfranchised democrats, moderates, and even conservatives due to Santorum's constant attacks from Fox News, going to him. He's already back in the lead, and tomorrow he's dropping the name of his VP." - Chris Matthews

National Polls:
Jon Huntsman/??? - 40%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 34%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann - 15%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 8%

With Mitch Daniels:
Jon Huntsman/Mitch Daniels - 41%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 35%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann - 13%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 8%

With Rand Paul:
Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul - 42%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 35%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 11%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 9%

With Brian Sanoval:
Jon Huntsman/Brian Sandoval: 40%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 32%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 17%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 8%


Regular Map:

Daniels Map:

Paul Map:

Sandoval Map:

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I liked how Hannity took Santorum took Santorum down a notch. Even Hannity believes in freedom when it affects Republicans

[Maxwell]

And its...



RAAAAAAAAAAAND PAUL

"I accept Jon Huntsman's offer to run on the ticket for the presidency of the United States. We will take our country back from the depths of Obamanomics and the Fed's irreversibly bad economic policies. At this point, nothing can stop us!" - Rand Paul



"As the polls show, with the pick of Rand Paul, Santorums stock shrinks. However, it shrinks even WORSE than the polls expected. Santorum's campaign is leaking: the continued barrage of negativity against him from former Republican allies is drowning him. Only Tom Tancredo and Mike Huckabee are staying with him, and only one endorsement is being considered as a positive. This pushes not only Kentucky and Tennessee further to Huntsman, but also Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, North Carolina, and even Indiana and Pennyslvania, states that were not considered part of the Rand Paul bounce. Even Minnesota, a lean Obama state, is moving closer and closer to a toss-up, partially because of Michelle Bachmann's controversial statements as of late. This race is getting more and more interesting each time we get to it" - Wolf Blitzer

"It doesn't look like Santorum is going to have any momentum, and due to the 15% polling limit to get onto the debates, it doesn't look like he's going to have any shot at even getting into the debates, which would be devastating to his campaign." - John King

National Polls:
Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul: 44%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 36%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 8%

The Map at this Point:

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I think Ron Paul introducing Rand the RNC would be a great way to fire up the base. It would turn Paul supporters (who generally like Huntsman anyway) back to the fold if they are flirting with Johnson's campaign as well. I really look forward to seeing the conventions in this timeline.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama approval numbers may be devastating if he's polling at 34%.

[Maxwell]

Obama approval numbers may be devastating if he's polling at 36%.

They are lower in this than they are in real life (possibly because of an even starker lack of vision), but Huntsman is also taking a significant chunk of Obama's audience, people who kind of approve of how he's doing, but are ultimately disappointed (which, it seems to me, is a giant audience).

[Maxwell]

The Republican National Convention

National Polls:
Huntsman/Paul: 42%
Obama/Biden: 40%
Santorum/Bachmann: 10%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 8%

"Before the convention, the Obama campaign has been making headway, due to Obama's revamped and newly more progressive campaigning style. Obama has moved more and more to the left on social issues, while not making fiscal issues a huge part of his campaign: in other words, putting emphasis on some of his strengths in terms of demographics. However, Paul has been hammering Obama's violations of civil liberties, while Huntsman has been hammering his poor fiscal ideas, so as a ticket, they've been managing to hold down the incumbent president, but for how long?" - Wolf Blitzer

Noteworthy Speakers at the GOP Convention:


"Huntsman will tell us the hard truths we need to hear!"



"The American dream doesn't reside with this President! It's time a move in the right direction, and that is in the direction of Huntsman/Paul!"



"Santorum is proposing a wholly authortarian agenda on America, while Obama is proposing a wholly liberal agenda for America. Let's stop making agenda and lets focus on fixing the problems that we have in this country, and there is only one ticket that will do that, and that is Huntsman/Paul!"



"A lot of you maybe wondering: Gary, what are you doing here, I thought you were the nominee for the Libertarian party? Well, I think liberty has come to the Republican party, and the Huntsman/Paul ticket is just what America needs: not fiscal liberalism nor social conservatism, but fiscal conservatism and social tolerance!"



"I am proud to introduce the young man who has made me the proudest in my lifetime, on the only ticket that endorses us to get out of Afghanistan: my son, RAND PAUL."



"This was a convention that soared... strong speeches from just about everyone, a touching endorsement from Ron Paul, and a surprising endorsement from former Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who also put on a strong speech." - Bret Baier

"Yes, but Bret, I think, what started from Christie's speech, was too much preparing for future runs and publicity shows, not completely supporting of their nominee. Even though a lot of speeches were, not enough for it to be a completely effective convention, I suspect only a 3-4 point bump. Either way, no convention can look good for Santorum." - Brit Hume

National Poll:
Huntsman/Paul: 46%
Obama/Biden: 37%
Santorum/Bachmann: 9%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 8%

[Jerseyrules]

Jon Huntsman today, Rand Paul tomorrow, LIBERTY FOREVER!  Our time is NOW!

[GLPman]

Better than real life.

[Maxwell]

The Democratic National Convention, Major Boost for the President!

"It seems as if the DNC really touted Obama's message very well. While they couldn't throw many hurdles at the Huntsman/Paul ticket (though they did throw some extremism accusations at the vice president), they did throw many attacks on the third party candidacy of Rick Santorum, further sinking his boat. It appears that right after the convention, the President is seeing his first lead since Santorum entered the race, albeit much narrower than that point." - Wolf Blitzer

"Going into the debates, this isn't a good position for Huntsman/Paul, but Obama back in 08 was behind after the conventions, so the excitement could wear off quickly." - John King

Obama/Biden: 43%
Huntsman/Paul: 42%
Santorum/Bachmann: 6%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 8%

Toss-ups Map

No Toss-Ups

[NHI]

If only this were real!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If only this were real!

Agreed!