The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

Head to head is 47/46, Obama, but with leaners 47/47.  On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 50%, -1


Disapprove: 43%, +1

Head to head, Obama 48% (u), Romney 45% (-1).

We've still got a lag with the 47% remark.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, u.

Watch the strongly approve number.  That is either a bad sample or some very solid movement.  The other numbers are holding.

Head to head is tied at 46%, with leaners, 48/46 Romney.


On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

lol rasmussen

I'd be watch those Strongly Approve numbers and Gallup over the weekend. 

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 51%, +1


Disapprove: 43%, u

Head to head, Obama 50% (+2), Romney 44% (-1).

We've still got a lag with the 47% remark.

[J. J.]

lol rasmussen

I'd be watch those Strongly Approve numbers and Gallup over the weekend. 

Have fun watching your flawed outlier polls.

Just saw the Quiniapiac ones ones on the polling board. 

While their might be a single bad sample, it is almost impossible to get longer term outliers on the tracking polls.

[J. J.]

Uh, no it's not. It's very possible. And Gallup and Ramussen are both good examples of it. Both polls have flawed sample weightings.

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A weighting problem is not an outlier.

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No, I expect it to rebound, because they were not a major component of the sample last week, when Romney's numbers went up.  They were not a major part of the sample.

As noted, the Rasmussen numbers went down when the comment came out.

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, +2.

Disapprove 48%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -2.


It could be tied to Romney's 47% comment.  Tracking shows 47%/45% Obama in the horse race poll.

Stick a fork in him. He's done.

I guess since the number's flipped, you think Obama is "done" now, right Lief?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, -1.

Head to head is tied at 46/46 Obama, but with leaners 48/48. 

The strongly approved numbers are still running lower and there appears to some erosion (2-3 points).

 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

Doesn't recovery from a major campaign gaffe have to be earned?  I don't think it goes away because it was a week ago.  Maybe if something had happened in the news (the Libya ambassador death ended the convention bounce), but there really hasn't been anything helpful to Romney hooking Obama.

No, it is internalized.  After the initial hype, people treat it as one piece of data.

The relations with the Islamic are a ongoing problem for Obama, because:

1.  There was more unrest after the apologies.

2.  The assassination of Stevens was a terrorist attack and it took the administration too long to admit it.  It was just probably spin or muddle, but people are saying "conspiracy."

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 50%, -1


Disapprove: 44%, +1

Head to head, Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).

[J. J.]

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.

I'm saying it was a blip on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see it it is a blip on Gallup.

[J. J.]

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.

I'm saying it was a blip on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see it it is a blip on Gallup.

That's a plausible interpretation of the Rasmussen results. I do think it's worth suggesting that if the 47% comments caused nothing more than a blip, and the race is still essentially tied, then Romney probably wouldn't have replaced all of his existing swing-state ads with an ad in which he announces that he cares just as much about the poor as Obama does.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/romney_goes_all_in_to_soften_his_47_remarks.html

He might have seen it as a preemption.  There was a drop in Rasmussen, but it was ephemeral. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen's track polls hardly ever move out of the margin of error of 49-49.  It feels like it's been 51-48 in either direction for months now.  The only swing from it came because Scott announced he was going to change his partisan weighing model on September 1st.  You can't possibly see trends in that thing.

These changes have virtually nothing to do with the weighting.  They are changes within the poll.  And, if you are taking about approval numbers, they were out of that range this month.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

Head to head is tied at 47/46 Obama, but with leaners 48/48. 


 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 50%, u


Disapprove: 45%, +1

Head to head, Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).

[J. J.]

I guess we're still waiting for Americans to forget about Romney calling them entitled, irresponsible, useless leeches?

Obama's unfavorable numbers have been increasing. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, -1.

Head to head is tied at 46/48 Obama, and with leaners 47/49.

 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, -2


Disapprove: 46%, +2

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes by Tuesday.

[J. J.]

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

lol

So you think Obama is in full collapse, Lief?

[J. J.]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

[J. J.]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

But the QE3 rally coming to an end also fits the timing here.  Historically, gaffes don't fundamentally move a race in polling.  Bitter clingers didn't in 2008, for example.  By contrast, the stock market is highly correlated.

Well, not really.  The market has not improved greatly since QE 3 was announced, though it has improved.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, u.

Head to head is at 46/48 Obama, and with leaners 47/49.

 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, u


Disapprove: 47%, +1

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 49% (-1), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes, even more, by Tuesday.

[J. J.]

Gallup goes LV tomorrow, so that will surely close the margin a bit.  I still think it's the relatively bad econ news this week.  Or the end of a small "rally around the leader" related to Libya.

I gather that you think the economy is pretty baked in now, barring something crazy like +350K or net job losses in September?

Yes and no.  The right track numbers peaked after the DNC and then have bobbed slightly lower. 

[J. J.]

I wiill be out tomorrow, if someone wants to get the numbers.

Please remember that on 10/1, Rasmussen ncluding leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll