Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories don't need to win any Toronto seats to get to a majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Toronto...  I know we discussed this a lot around the time of the federal redistribution, but I spent some time starting at maps of west Toronto this evening, and it's going to be tough for the NDP to win either of the Trinity-Spadina successor ridings. It's almost as if they've been gerrymandered against the NDP (wasn't Olivia Chow in favour of this split?). I guess at the time it seemed as if the NDP could win both, but in most elections, I'd say they can win neither. A better split would've put Forest Hill and Rosedale together (to make a district for old money) and lump in the northern part of Trinity-Spadina with the southern part of Davenport to make a safer NDP seat. The rest of Davenport and St. Paul's could be called Oakwood or something.

Oh well, too late now. The NDP can always win back Davenport at least.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the ONDP, the Jagmeet Singh "spillover effect", or whether there is such a thing, is a *real* puzzle.  And if they wind up backsliding in Brampton relative to 2014 despite "their guy" in power federally, there's going to be plenty of soul-searching...

It all depends on the candidates. The NDP have only nominated one candidate in the three 'winnable' Brampton seats, Sara Singh in Brampton North. Not sure how strong she is.

The two strongest candidate possibilities in the region are Harkirat Singh (public school trustee) and Gurpreet Dhillon (city councillor). Dhillon was the NDP candidate in Brampton-Springdale in 2014.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doesn't surprise me, of course. I have mentioned before the stories I've heard about him.

[Hatman 🍁]

A snap leadership election will probably be best for the Tories, as they are less likely to have a terrible candidate spend a long time campaigning to terrible social conservative groups and end up defeating a moderate establishment candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

One important thing to remember about the PC caucus: it is deeply divided into different factions, and also don't forget, most of the PC candidates are Patrick Brown supporters, so we might see a whole slew of new nomination battles.

[Hatman 🍁]

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

[Hatman 🍁]

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

My point was he was a terrible Premier. Probably the Canadian politician I loathe the most. And yes, I know being from North Bay has nothing to do with anything. Some good people there (my Dad's from there), but Harris was not one of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals — one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 

In an ideal world, the new Tory leader would:
a) be a woman to help counteract Brown
b) not be affiliated with a particular faction to help unify the party

Coming from outside caucus might help with criteria b, but Raitt is a Red Tory, as is Lisa MacLeod (I think). Does anyone in caucus fit the bill?

There's been a lot of talk about Caroline Mulroney, so that might fit a & b, but she's not in caucus (yet) but is a shoe-in to get elected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

French is not essential to be Premier of Ontario.

North Bay does has a sizable Francophone population, especially in the countryside around it. Corbeil (where the Dion quintuplets are from), Bonfield and Sturgeon Falls are all fairly Francophone. South of Lake Nipissing (I guess some would consider that Central Ontario) is very Anglo though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

French is not essential to be Premier of Ontario.

North Bay does has a sizable Francophone population, especially in the countryside around it. Corbeil (where the Dion quintuplets are from), Bonfield and Sturgeon Falls are all fairly Francophone. South of Lake Nipissing (I guess some would consider that Central Ontario) is very Anglo though.

Anything south of North Bay is not Northern Ontario. It's that easy.

I wanted to die whenever I heard people say they loved to go camping in the Northern Ontario area of Muskoka.

Well, I wasn't talking about Muskoka, I was referring to Parry Sound District, which is culturally (for lack of a better term) Northern Ontarian, and is treated as part of Northern Ontario by the provincial government.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

Here is the only map of Northern Ontario that really matters:
http://curlnoca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/map_affiliated_Oct_2016.pdf

Curling is the biggest reason why Northern Ontario should be its own province

[Hatman 🍁]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

DOUG FORD IS RUNNING!!!

[Hatman 🍁]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

[Hatman 🍁]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

I have family from Muskoka, and I visit there once a year or so. Muskoka is very borderline between Central and Northern Ontario. Some could make the argument that it is at the northern fringes of Central Ontario, or that it is the beginning of Northern Ontario. Muskoka is north of the tree line though, which is where the trees go from deciduous to coniferous.

Politically it is far more Central Ontario than Northern Ontario.  The PCs pretty much always win here while the Liberals usually come in second (In a good election a strong second while a weak second in a bad one) while the NDP is largely irrelevant here.  Go further north and the NDP is quite strong while PCs are quite weak.

That has more to do with demographics and industry, though. It is more WASPy and the industry is more based on tourism.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like it will be Mulroney, Elliott and Ford. Anyone else?

[Hatman 🍁]

I have a good feeling that Doug Ford could single handily win that riding for the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why do I suspect their sample did not include any cell phones...

[Hatman 🍁]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

Well, anything in Ford nation obviously. I'd imagine a lot of ridings in the 905 may be in a similar vein, though without having to live in Toronto, people in the 905 may have less of a populist streak as those in the inner ring of Toronto suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Question:  In what ridings would a Doug Ford-led party over-perform compared to the generic PC vote and where would Christine Elliot or Caroline Mulroney do better?

Well, anything in Ford nation obviously. I'd imagine a lot of ridings in the 905 may be in a similar vein, though without having to live in Toronto, people in the 905 may have less of a populist streak as those in the inner ring of Toronto suburbs.

What exactly is Ford nation, in geographic terms?

The blue areas in these maps...

2014:


2010:

[Hatman 🍁]

Brown is running.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most of Peel and probably Woodbridge would likely see Ford do better than the generic PC vote.

Probably Markham too. Looks like Ford Nation is a bit stronger in Agincourt than the rest of Scarborough, so he may appeal to Chinese voters (but not South Asians).

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well, but I am going to go out on a limb and say Ford defeats Elliott in a close-ish race on the final ballot.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?