2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

They'll be counting the ballots twice - the first time on election night they'll just sum'em by party. The second time they'll count them by candidate (and correct any errors from the first count, obviously).

[minionofmidas]

Wahlomat (didn't doubleweight any questions)
Greens 62/76
Pirates 61/76
Left 60/76
SPD 45/76
FW 43/76
FDP 39/76
CDU 36/76
NPD 36/76

Hmmm...

[Tender Branson]

Lots of Emnid polls out today for the state elections in 1 month:

Baden-Württemberg

40% CDU
23% Greens
20% SPD
  7% FDP
  5% Left
  5% Others

No majority for CDU-FDP or SPD-Greens, majority for CDU-SPD, CDU-Greens possible but I guess very unlikely.

Rheinland-Pfalz

38% SPD
35% CDU
12% Greens
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  5% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Sachsen-Anhalt

31% CDU
27% Left
22% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% NPD
  5% FDP
  3% Others

Majority for CDU-SPD and Left-SPD, CDU-Left possible but I guess very unlikely.

[minionofmidas]

I should follow this election more closely. After all, the PARTEI's platform for our local elections calls Frankfurt "practically the Hamburg of Central Hesse".

[Insula Dei]

The Whal-O-Mat mentions a 'Noordstaat'. Is that seriously being considered or is it on the level of a United Kingdom of the Netherlands?

[minionofmidas]

The Whal-O-Mat mentions a 'Noordstaat'. Is that seriously being considered or is it on the level of a United Kingdom of the Netherlands?

It *usually* means just  Hamburg-SlH merger, though sometimes other states are included in the concept as well. It has been more or less seriously been considered for just about as long as the FRG exists, but is going nowhere because there is no popular support for it (or, really, for any state mergers. While there is no tptb support for any new state creations - some of which, most notably Franconia, have widespread if somewhat shallow popular support.)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout @ 4pm is still almost the same as 3 years ago:

53.8% vs. 54.0%

Final turnout will then be between 60 and 65%.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout @ 5pm still identical, I now project a final turnout between 63 and 64%.

Exit Polls in 15 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe I was too pessimistic about the FDP's chances to get past 5%.

I think the vote splitting of the new Hamburg election law might lead many disappointed CDU voters to vote for the FDP this time and that would push them slightly above 5%.

The FDP also has a new and not polarizing front runner with Katja Suding. This might also help distance the party from the polarizing and unpopular Guido Westerwelle.

We'll know more in a few minutes ...

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll:

49.5% SPD
20.5% CDU
11.5% Greens
  7.0% Left
  6.5% FDP
  5.0% Others

WOW ! Absolute Majority for the new Mayor Olaf Scholz !

[minionofmidas]

Thus always to Black-Green experiments. Not that Scholz deserves it, of course. Can't stand the man.

Shame about the FDP.

[Tender Branson]

Change from the previous election:

49.5% (+15.4) SPD
20.5%  (-22.1) CDU
11.5%   (+1.9) Greens
  7.0%   (+0.6) Left
  6.5%   (+1.7) FDP
  5.0%   (+2.5) Others

LOL @ the CDU. They are halved !

[Franzl]

Impressive. Congratulations.

[Tender Branson]

The ZDF Exit Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is even bleaker for the CDU:

50.0% SPD
20.0% CDU
11.0% Greens
  6.5% Left
  6.5% FDP
  6.0% Others

[Tender Branson]

Thus always to Black-Green experiments. Not that Scholz deserves it, of course. Can't stand the man.

Don't know him much, but wasn't he responsible for the job saving Kurzarbeit regulations while he was Labor Minister during the Merkel I government ? So he cannot be that bad, right ?

I guess many former CDU voters crossed over to him because of his work as Labor Minister.

[minionofmidas]

Thus always to Black-Green experiments. Not that Scholz deserves it, of course. Can't stand the man.

Don't know him much, but wasn't he responsible for the job saving Kurzarbeit regulations while he was Labor Minister during the Merkel I government ? So he cannot be that bad, right ?

I guess many former CDU voters crossed over to him because of his work as Labor Minister.

Just some random machine old-righty-slash-Schröderite (as in, sort of in between these two tendencies, which are allied and similar but not identical...) Social Democrat basically.
There aren't many other circumstances where he'd be so well placed to rake in the red-green voters. Which he must have - 11.5 for the Greens is not quite as bad as last time but still very very bad especially when compared to national polling. Unless the Left's gains came mostly at the Green (or usually Green but SPD last time) expense. We'll have to wait for the final results to see about that, I suppose.

Ahlhaus keeping von Beust's personal voters was never within the realm of possibility. Not that the CDU needed to crash and burn that badly, of course.

[Franzl]

I would have voted SPD for 2 reasons today.

a.) To keep the Greens out of government.

b.) The Hamburg CDU is terrible.

[Hans-im-Glück]

lol CDU

I think we will see for some years no CDU/Green coalition anywhere in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Projected Seats:

63 SPD
26 CDU
15 Greens
  9 Left
  8 FDP

PS:

The Exit Poll by ARD says what I already thought: Most new SPD voters voted for the SPD because of Scholz's economic policy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Haha, wow.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, turnout is exactly the same as it was in 2008:

63.5%

http://www.hamburg.de/hamburg-wahlen/2653494/zeitplan.html

[Tender Branson]

Live Stream + victory speech by Olaf Scholz now:

http://www.ardmediathek.de/ard/servlet/content/3517136?documentId=6522938

[Tender Branson]

Seems like vote splitting was not that popular:

[BenNebbich]

hamburg prediction from BenNebbich:

spd          43%
cdu          28%
gal           15%
fdp             6%
sedlinke  4%
other          4%

anyone with a worse prediction?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Naturally maps must be made. Anyone with links with detailed results? (or where such wondrous things shall appear?)