2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/buergerschaftswahlen/2008/

[minionofmidas]

Well, we have some partial count numbers... but they agree with the exit poll for the most part.

SPD 49.6 or 49.8
CDU 21.2 or 21.2
Greens 11.4 or 10.9
Left 6.7 or 5.9
FDP 6.0 or 6.4
other 5.1 or 5.8

[minionofmidas]

Haha, kewl.

Watch Germans counting ballots live online - the hawttest thing since internet pornography!

http://www.joeran.de/livestream-der-auszahlung-der-wahlen-in-hamburg/

[minionofmidas]

Also, here's the result from a St Pauli precinct.

SPD 42.8
Greens 19.0
Left 13.5
Pirates 10.2
CDU 7.5
PARTEI 5.0
FDP 1.1

[minionofmidas]

Ah, here we go. A more reasonable results link.

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.statistik-nord.de/

[minionofmidas]

Looking through that... the Pirate and PARTEI results in natural Green territory are ridiculously good, the Left gains come entirely from them (perhaps more than entirely - in some slum areas they certainly lost votes), and the SPD gains come entirely from elsewhere.

[Хahar 🤔]

FDP performance is a bit surprising.

[Hans-im-Glück]

FDP performance is a bit surprising.

I think this are mostly protest voters from the CDU. The FDP have ca. 4% voters who vote them every time in Hamburg and with some former CDU voters its no problem to get 6%.

[minionofmidas]

With but 95 precincts missing, it's

SPD 48.4
CDU 22.0
Greens 11.1
FDP 6.6
Left 6.3
Pirates 2.1
NPD 0.9
PARTEI 0.7
FW 0.7
etc pp

[minionofmidas]

First constituency in completely (this is for the city list vote)

Stellingen - Eimsbüttel W
turnout 57.0
SPD 50.0 (+12.4)
CDU 17.7 (-19.3)
Greens 14.7 (+3.0)
Left 7.0 (-0.2)
FDP 4.8 (+0.8)
Pirates 2.4

This is a three seater and we're using Hare, so if the constituency vote mirrors the city vote, the seat distribution is SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (0), Greens 0 (-1)

[minionofmidas]

Rahlstedt
Turnout 55.0
SPD 50.8 (+18.6)
CDU 25.9 (-22.7)
FDP 6.9 (+2.1)
Greens 6.9 (+0.7)
Left 5.1 (-0.4)
Pirates 1.3, NPD 1.2 (I'll be reporting others down to 1.0%)

Four-seater, so SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1) and a basically perfectly random constituency seat for the FDP (+1) if results mirror.

Lokstedt - Niendorf - Schnelsen
Turnout 61.9
SPD 49.8 (+17.9)
CDU 24.7 (-23.5)
Greens 9.3 (+1.3)
FDP 7.2 (+2.2)
Left 4.5 (-0.5)
Pirates 1.5
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

Wandsbek
Turnout 51.8
SPD 49.4 (+15.8)
CDU 24.2 (-21.3)
Greens 8.5 (+1.6)
FDP 6.4 (+1.5)
Left 5.6 (-0.7)
Pirates 2.1, NPD 1.1
SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (+1)

Bergedorf
Turnout 53.4
SPD 50.0 (+15.9)
CDU 26.2 (-20.1)
Greens 8.2 (+1.2)
Left 5.6 (-0.2)
FDP 5.0 (+1.0)
Pirates 2.0, NPD 1.1
SPD 3 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

[Insula Dei]

I turned on ZDF earlier today and couldn't believe the figures  in the lower half of the screen were actual results. Turns out I underestimated how good an election this was going to be.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Watching CDU secretary-general Hermann Gröhe on ZDF... as always, pure comedy gold.

I think he has said six times that the Greens have "fled from responsibility" when they ended the coalition last year during his two-minute interview. He basically answered every question that way. He's like a freaking robot.

[minionofmidas]

Rotherbusch - Harvestehude - Eimsbüttel E
SPD 42.9 (+9.2)
Greens 18.5 (+2.7)
CDU 17.9 (-19.0)
FDP 7.9 (+2.6)
Left 7.7 (+1.0)
Pirates 2.5, PARTEI 1.2
SPD 1, Greens 1, CDU 1 - no change

meh... no new complete results while I typed that... 33 precincts outstanding, but in 11 different constituencies... mind you, we have a complete Borough* with that one (just don't want to be posting ten times in a row ).

Eimsbüttel
Turnout 61.8
SPD 47.5, CDU 20.4, Greens 13.9, FDP 6.7, Left 6.3, Pirates 2.1

* a second one that is - Bergedorf borough forms a single constituency.

[minionofmidas]

Central
SPD 46.4 (+8.0)
CDU 15.8 (-17.2)
Greens 14.7 (+3.0)
Left 10.2 (+0.9)
FDP 4.3 (+0.2)
Pirates 3.8, PARTEI 1.7, NPD 1.2
Which, hilariously, means SPD 2, CDU 1, Greens 1, Left 1 (no change).

[minionofmidas]

Barmbek - Uhlenhorst - Dulsberg
turnout 54.2
SPD 48.8 (+12.4)
CDU 17.7 (-20.0)
Greens 14.4 (+3.0)
Left 7.2 (-0.2)
FDP 5.6 (+1.2)
Pirates 2.7
Should be SPD 3 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

Süderelbe
turnout 52.4
SPD 49.3 (+15.7)
CDU 26.9 (-20.0)
Greens 6.8 (0)
FDP 6.4 (+2.0)
Left 5.2 (-0.5)
Pirates 1.7, NPD 1.5
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1)

Alstertal - Walddörfer
turnout 69.6
SPD 44.0 (+17.2)
CDU 29.7 (-23.4)
FDP 10.3 (+3.8)
Greens 9.5 (+0.7)
Left 3.2 (-0.2)
If the results mirror exactly, that's SPD 2 (+1), CDU 2 (-1), FDP 1 (+1), Greens 0 (-1), but it's very close between the second CDU and a first Green seat.

Altona
turnout 63.7
SPD 45.2 (+8.5)
Greens 17.5 (+0.7)
CDU 13.7 (-16.7)
Left 11.2 (+1.6)
FDP 5.6 (+1.3)
Pirates 3.1, PARTEI 1.6
SPD 2, Greens 1, CDU 1, Left 1 (no change)

Bramfeld - Farmsen-Berne
turnout 52.7
SPD 54.2 (+17.8)
CDU 21.5 (-21.5)
Greens 7.5 (+1.3)
Left 6.0 (-1.1)
FDP 5.3 (+1.1)
Pirates 1.4, NPD 1.4
SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (+1)

That means the largest borough of Wandsbek is in.
turnout 57.9, SPD 48.8, CDU 25.9, Greens 8.3, FDP 7.7, Left 4.7, Pirates 1.3

Waiting on 9 precincts in 5 constituencies in 4 boroughs...

[minionofmidas]

Billstedt - Wilhelmsburg - Finkenwerder
turnout 45.0 (it is that kind of area...)
SPD 54.2 (+14.2)
CDU 19.8 (-19.2)
Left 8.2 (-0.1)
Greens 6.7 (+1.5)
FDP 4.0 (+0.7)
Pirates 2.6, NPD 1.9
SPD 3 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Left 1 (0)

Blankenese
turnout 60.6
SPD 46.5 (+16.4)
CDU 26.4 (-23.1)
FDP 10.6 (+4.6)
Greens 7.8 (+0.6)
Left 4.3 (-0.7)
Pirates 1.3
SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1), FDP 1 (+1), Greens 1 (0)

so, two new precincts completing two constituencies and two boroughs.
Central turnout 47.9, SPD 49.9, CDU 17.6, Greens 11.1, Left 9.3, FDP 4.2, Pirates 3.3, NPD 1.5, PARTEI 1.2
Altona turnout 62.3, SPD 45.8, CDU 19.3, Greens 13.3, Left 8.2, FDP 7.8, Pirates 2.3, PARTEI 1.1

[minionofmidas]

BTW, turnout is exactly the same as it was in 2008:

63.5%

http://www.hamburg.de/hamburg-wahlen/2653494/zeitplan.html

Projection fail.

Looks to have been right about 57%.

[minionofmidas]

Heh, final result
turnout 57.0
SPD 48.3 (+14.1)
CDU 21.9 (-20.7)
Greens 11.2 (+1.6)
FDP 6.6 (+1.8)
Left 6.4 (-0.1)
Pirates 2.1, NPD 0.9, PARTEI 0.7, FW 0.7 etc pp


Harburg
turnout 50.0
SPD 50.5 (+14.1)
CDU 23.0 (-18.9)
Greens 8.5 (+1.0)
Left 6.8 (-0.3)
FDP 4.5 (+0.6)
Pirates 2.4, NPD 1.7
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1)

Harburg borough
turnout 51.1, SPD 49.9, CDU 24.9, Greens 7.7, Left 6.0, FDP 5.4, Pirates 2.1, NPD 1.6

Eppendorf - Winterhude
turnout 64.0
SPD 45.2 (+13.3)
CDU 21.0 (-21.8)
Greens 15.6 (+2.3)
FDP 8.6 (+2.9)
Left 5.0 (+0.2)
Pirates 1.9
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

Fuhlsbüttel - Alsterdorf - Langenhorn
turnout 60.1
SPD 51.0 (+15.5)
CDU 21.8 (-21.1)
Greens 10.3 (+1.5)
FDP 6.3 (+1.7)
Left 5.6 (-0.2)
Pirates 1.9
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

North borough
turnout 58.9, SPD 48.3, CDU 20.0, Greens 13.5, FDP 6.8, Left 6.0, Pirates 2.2

[Hash]

HafenCity:
SPD 40
CDU 27.5
FDP 16.1
GRN 12.1
Pirates 1.9

Fail.

[Shilly]

Map time!


edit:and credit for the basemap goes to Al, of course.

[Tender Branson]

Vote counting, Hamburg style:



Every voter had 20 votes ...

[minionofmidas]

SHilly - what did you do with the boundary changes around Bergedorf/Allermöhe? (I can see you just merged Hamm. Which was right.)

[Shilly]

As far as I can tell, Neuallermöhe was created from the two districts you just mentioned, but I now notice some small errors in that region. I'll fix it.

[minionofmidas]

As far as I can tell, Neuallermöhe was created from the two districts you just mentioned, but I now notice some small errors in that region. I'll fix it.

Yah, some other minor area was apparently transferred from Allermöhe to Bergedorf. I was just wondering if you had bothered to find yourself a map... because I haven't. I just read that there'd been a change a few minutes after seeing your map.