Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Dutch Conservative]

Excellent idea. Some interesting polls then. Support for the following policies on the basis of current party vote, age, and education.

From most to least popular:
Ending free-market competition in the healthcare system
Investing 2 billion in defense and police
Ending death duties for children of the deceased
Pension age should be 65 again [from 67 now, DavidB.]
Prioritizing the improvement of purchasing power for the elderly
Not admitting any more asylum seekers
Implementing a binding referendum
Implementing 3-month paternity leave
All contracts should become permanent, but it should become easier to fire people [proposed D66 policy, DavidB.]
Leave the EU
Closing down all asylum seeker centers

Funny, even SP voters are for a 2 billion increase in defense/police budget (60% majority). Didnt that used to be a pacifist party? And another one: 64% of SP voters are in favor of a referendum, while only 15% of D'66 voters is in favor of that! That party was practically founded to institute the referendum

[DavidB.]

The CDA now came up with their list too. All incumbent MPs are on the new list. Sybrand van Haersma Buma will continue leading the party. Right-wing Mona Keijzer, who appeals to middle-class, slightly conservative women (or at least attempts to do so...), returns on #2; Pieter Omtzigt, one of the most visible MPs, returns on #4 after being elected with 36,750 preferential votes on #39 in the last election (he was the only theoretically unelectable MP elected on the basis of preferential votes). Omtzigt, who hails from the rural east of the country, concerns himself with fiscal issues but also with the EU, Christian minorities in the Middle East, and the aftermath of the MH17 attack. He is very good at digging up stuff the government thinks it can get away with. The media love him. The party elite used to dislike him, which is why they put him on #39 in the last election despite being an incumbent MP, but after the election they had to recognize he is someone who is valuable for the CDA.

Highest newcomers on the list are Rene Peters (#3) from the south, Harry van der Molen (#7) from the northern province of Friesland, and 29-year old Anne Kuik (#11) from Groningen -- all pretty much nobodies.

[Dutch Conservative]

The CDA now came up with their list too. All incumbent MPs are on the new list. Sybrand van Haersma Buma will continue leading the party. Right-wing Mona Keijzer, who appeals to middle-class, slightly conservative women (or at least attempts to do so...), returns on #2; Pieter Omtzigt, one of the most visible MPs, returns on #4 after being elected with 36,750 preferential votes on #39 in the last election (he was the only theoretically unelectable MP elected on the basis of preferential votes). Omtzigt, who hails from the rural east of the country, concerns himself with fiscal issues but also with the EU, Christian minorities in the Middle East, and the aftermath of the MH17 attack. He is very good at digging up stuff the government thinks it can get away with. The media love him. The party elite used to dislike him, which is why they put him on #39 in the last election despite being an incumbent MP, but after the election they had to recognize he is someone who is valuable for the CDA.

Highest newcomers on the list are Rene Peters (#3) from the south, Harry van der Molen (#7) from the northern province of Friesland, and 29-year old Anne Kuik (#11) from Groningen -- all pretty much nobodies.

I do like Omtzigt, the CDA should appoint him as leader of the party. I think he is really good in debates and one of few people in the party that is a consistent thinker. Mona Keijzer is an absolute lightweight. I really dont understand why they keep giving her such high positions. Poor CDA, it'll go from bad to worse in march.

[Dutch Conservative]

The vote was 74-75, indeed because one member of the PvdD was absent. I think that party is against the law, because of the right for self-determination (not sure if this is a correct translation). Also: the VVD allowed their members to vote their own conscience. 7 Members voted in favor of the law, 33 against. I'm not sure it will pass in the Eerste Kamer (the Senate). Personally im really against this law, so I hope not.

Rutte is really in campaign-mode again, showing himself as the law-and-order PM he is (not).

[DC Al Fine]

So which parties voted for/against the bill?

[Zinneke]

So which parties voted for/against the bill?

For : PvdA, D66, SP, GroenLinks, 50Plus and 7 VVDers

Against : SGP, 20 odd VVD, CU, CDA, PvdD (Only Thieme voted though), PVV, and one PvdA.

I don't understand why this is a bad law, given the heavy bureaucratic nature of having to put yourself on the organ donor list, it should be up to those who passionately don't wish to donate to send those letters. Most people don't care or say yes when you ask them, but don't bother to send the letter.

 Spain employs a similar system and it has worked wonders

[Zanas]

I would not have expected such a topic to fall into such a clear(ish) left-right divide. For example I would have expected at least some of the PVV to be in favor, but I guess MUH STATE-DICTATORSHIP.

[Dutch Conservative]

So which parties voted for/against the bill?

For : PvdA, D66, SP, GroenLinks, 50Plus and 7 VVDers

Against : SGP, 20 odd VVD, CU, CDA, PvdD (Only Thieme voted though), PVV, and one PvdA.

I don't understand why this is a bad law, given the heavy bureaucratic nature of having to put yourself on the organ donor list, it should be up to those who passionately don't wish to donate to send those letters. Most people don't care or say yes when you ask them, but don't bother to send the letter.

 Spain employs a similar system and it has worked wonders

There were 33 VVD MP's that voted against the law. Yesterday in the TV-program Nieuwsuur (http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2132193-verdeeldheid-over-de-nieuwe-donorwet.html?title=verdeeldheid-over-de-nieuwe-donorwet) there was a VVD-senator that explained the objections.

The law clearly violates article 11 of the Constitution: 'Everyone shall have the right to inviolability of his person, without prejudice to restrictions laid down by or pursuant to Act of Parliament.'

The fact that 'most people don't care' (btw: i wouldn't presume to speak for most people) doesn't allow the state to take control of my body. Before or after death: the principle stands.

I looks like the law won't pass senate. I find it hard te believe that a 'liberal' party, like D'66 claims it is, creates and supports a law like this. It shows that there really isn't any consistent thinking within that party. Al they want to do is put society into a liberal straitjacket.

[DavidB.]

It is clear JosepBroz on the one hand and Dutch Conservative and I on the other hand are going to disagree on virtually all issues (because yeah, I vehemently disagree with this law too). While many such issues may, indeed, be highly interesting to discuss, I don't think this thread is really the right place for doing so. In this thread I will try to remain as neutral as possible during the course of the election season.

Some factual things:

DENK and VNL opposed the initiative too.

I don't understand why this is a bad law, given the heavy bureaucratic nature of having to put yourself on the organ donor list, it should be up to those who passionately don't wish to donate to send those letters. Most people don't care or say yes when you ask them, but don't bother to send the letter.

It's not really much of a hassle to change your donor status, at least for those who have internet. You can do it in three minutes. No need to send a letter.

Thieme, by the way, is a Seventh-day Adventist. This may very well play a role in the party's decision to oppose the law; on the basis of a line of reasoning similar to the Christian parties', Thieme has showed she is uncomfortable with this law, which would give the government too much power. By the way, if PvdD MP Frank Wassenberg would not have been delayed, the vote would have been 75-75 and the initiative would not have been passed.

It is also good to point out that it doesn't matter whether this law is "against the constitution" or not. Dutch courts have no opportunity for constitutional review. If the Senate will pass the law, the new system will be implemented.

In the meantime, the government has had a difficult time keeping up the website on which one can change one's donor status. Since the passing of the law in parliament, 23.000 people have registered themselves on the website, with 19.000 of them saying "no". Remarkably, 4.500 people who had previously given permission for organ donation now changed their status to "no" as well, presumably because they disagree with the proposed law.

[Dutch Conservative]

It is also good to point out that it doesn't matter whether this law is "against the constitution" or not. Dutch courts have no opportunity for constitutional review. If the Senate will pass the law, the new system will be implemented.
 

I don't think that's entirely true. Firstly: indeed, constitutional review isn't a formal role/task of the courts. You cannot go to the Supreme Court with the argument that a law is against the Constitution (compared to US by example). But the Council of State Act (Raad van State) can give advice about laws and it has been critical about this new law. Secondly: the historically the First Chamber/Senate is a reflective chamber. A new law should not contradict existing law. The Constitution is part of existing law, so in that way there should be constitutional review. In the famous 'Nacht van Wiegel' about the referendum-law Wiegel used this argument.

[DavidB.]

Right, but the Raad van State is only an advisory body and the Senate, while a chambre de réflexion, is ultimately not a judicial but a political institution, even if some senators may take into account legal and constitutional considerations. Unless the initiative contravenes international law, which seems highly unlikely, the ultimate decision on this law will be a political one, not a legal one, even if legal and constitutional arguments do play a role.

[Dutch Conservative]

Right, but the Raad van State is only an advisory body and the Senate, while a chambre de réflexion, is ultimately not a judicial but a political institution, even if some senators may take into account legal and constitutional considerations. Unless the initiative contravenes international law, which seems highly unlikely, the ultimate decision on this law will be a political one, not a legal one, even if legal and constitutional arguments do play a role.

You're absolutely right.

[mvd10]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

[DavidB.]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Many think Kunduz raising the higher VAT rate from 19% to 21% was a very bad decision and say that the current government not reverting that decision unnecessarily slowed down economic recovery in 2013 and 2014. To raise the lower VAT rate would be even more unpopular, so yeah, definitely not happening.

The current government talked a lot about reforming the tax code, but doing so proved to be too controversial and no substantial changes were made. Of course, the fact that the government lacks a majority in the Senate did not help either. This year's Prinsjesdag budget is supposed to be very uncontroversial. Unpopular budget cuts in the healthcare sector are reverted. There is also much focus on increasing the purchasing power of the elderly. Of course, this has nothing to do with the upcoming general election

Mvd10, do you know what changes were eventually made with regard to the the mortgage interest deduction? I have not followed that saga (not a homeowner). It was one of the big themes of the 2010 election, the Rutte-I parties did not change anything, but what happened afterwards?

[DC Al Fine]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Your wealth tax is on anything over $20,000 euros? That's ridiculous; worse than any proposal I've seen by our lefty avatars (sans the commies of course). Was it just never adjusted for inflation or did someone actually implement it at roughly $20k in today's money?

I may have to start supporting libertarian parties in the Netherlands.

[mvd10]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Raising the higher VAT rate from 19% to 21% was a very bad decision by Kunduz and the current government not reverting that decision unnecessarily slowed down economic recovery in 2013 and 2014. To raise the lower VAT rate would be even more unpopular, so yeah, definitely not happening.

The current government talked a lot about reforming the tax code, but doing so proved to be too controversial and no substantial changes were made. Of course, the fact that the government lacks a majority in the Senate did not help either. This year's Prinsjesdag budget is supposed to be very uncontroversial. Unpopular budget cuts in the healthcare sector are reverted. There is also much focus on increasing the purchasing power of the elderly. Of course, this has nothing to do with the upcoming general election

Mvd10, do you know what changes were eventually made with regard to the the mortgage interest deduction? I have not followed that saga (not a homeowner). It was one of the big themes of the 2010 election, the Rutte-I parties did not change anything, but what happened afterwards?

The maximum value of the deduction will be limited to 38% (0.5% a year so it will take 28 years before it's fully phased in).

And the wealth tax will be made more progressive next year. The first 25k will be exempt. You'll pay 0.87% over the next 75k, 1.4% over the next 850k and 1.65% over anything above that. I actually thought this proposal didn't pass the senate because the centrist/centre-right opposition parties were opposed to it but apparently it did pass the senate.

[Dutch Conservative]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Raising the higher VAT rate from 19% to 21% was a very bad decision by Kunduz and the current government not reverting that decision unnecessarily slowed down economic recovery in 2013 and 2014. To raise the lower VAT rate would be even more unpopular, so yeah, definitely not happening.

The current government talked a lot about reforming the tax code, but doing so proved to be too controversial and no substantial changes were made. Of course, the fact that the government lacks a majority in the Senate did not help either. This year's Prinsjesdag budget is supposed to be very uncontroversial. Unpopular budget cuts in the healthcare sector are reverted. There is also much focus on increasing the purchasing power of the elderly. Of course, this has nothing to do with the upcoming general election

Mvd10, do you know what changes were eventually made with regard to the the mortgage interest deduction? I have not followed that saga (not a homeowner). It was one of the big themes of the 2010 election, the Rutte-I parties did not change anything, but what happened afterwards?

The maximum value of the deduction will be limited to 38% (0.5% a year so it will take 28 years before it's fully phased in).

And the wealth tax will be made more progressive next year. The first 25k will be exempt. You'll pay 0.87% over the next 75k, 1.4% over the next 850k and 1.65% over anything above that. I actually thought this proposal didn't pass the senate because the centrist/centre-right opposition parties were opposed to it but apparently it did pass the senate.

Is there any party running on ending the mortgage-taxreduction? I think the CDA had a flat-tax plan in the past, but I don't know wether they still have.

[DavidB.]

VNL wants a flat tax (of 23% or so, I think) and intends to abolish all special plans (also including huurtoeslag and zorgtoeslag) that necessitate the govt to pump around a lot of money, which is inefficient, and also make the tax code so difficult. Apparently it is possible to do that in a budget neutral way. This would of course cause income inequality to skyrocket.

[Zanas]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Your wealth tax is on anything over $20,000 euros? That's ridiculous; worse than any proposal I've seen by our lefty avatars (sans the commies of course). Was it just never adjusted for inflation or did someone actually implement it at roughly $20k in today's money?

I may have to start supporting libertarian parties in the Netherlands.

Are we talking 20,000 € a month, a year, or in assets ? Because the latter two would be absolutely insane, I concur. The former, however, I would easily be on board.

[Diouf]

In the polling average, VVD is closer to PVV than they have been for a long time. Although, I guess that will not really matter for anything else than optics, but it also means that the difference between VVD and the other potential government parties has increased somewhat, making it even more likely that Rutte can continue as PM.

Quirksmode polling average:

PVV 27 seats
VVD 26
CDA 17
D66 16
SP 15
GL 13
PvdA 11
50 Plus 9
CU 7
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 1
VNL 1

http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

[Zinneke]

50+ on 9 seats? I can see them joining a VVD-CDA-D66 government, or at least holding their majority. A scary thought.

Also, VVD will have a net seat loss of close to 14. Rutte is far from out of the firing line, especially if the combined left leaves him no option.

[DavidB.]

Indeed, the VVD is now even larger than the PVV in Peilingwijzer's polling average:



The VVD will end up with around 30 seats, probably as the largest party. Since the 2012 result was inflated because of the two-horse race, that means a "real" loss of approximately 7 seats. This logic is used by party members too. Again, I am hardly a supporter of the current VVD and I will probably not vote for them (am currently inclined to vote SGP), but that would objectively not be a bad result for a party that has led the government for almost seven years now -- particularly in the Netherlands, where governing means losing. I don't think Rutte will be in trouble with a result like that. Remember that the VVD are an applause machine. Unless huge changes in the polls occur during the campaign (which is well within the realm of possibilities, since this is the Netherlands), Rutte is going to remain PM.

And yes, if (big if) 50Plus really end up holding more than 5 seats, they could easily be necessary to sustain a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition from the outside. That would be a big setback for D66 in particular.

I don't know what JosepBroz means when talking about the "combined left". PvdA, SP, GL and PvdD are on 44 seats in the Peilingwijzer. D66 prefer to govern with the VVD and the CDA and are not "left" in any meaningful way. CDA also prefer to govern with the VVD and D66, and unlike in 2012, there will be no large party on the left that is ready to take over control in the event that the VVD end up being too demanding. Of course, VVD-CDA-D66 are in deep sh**t if they don't have a majority even with outside support from CU, SGP, and 50Plus, but Rutte stepping down wouldn't be very important for left-wing parties (GL?); they would likely focus on policy issues.

[Zinneke]

I mean that the combined left + the PVV (who will de facto vote against any government if they are excluded) voting against a centrist government with Rutte as its head is a possibility. Rutte would have to step down if he fails to build a majority. If he has to incorporate GL or PvdA in the coalition his party will hate him.

Alternatively I think the PVV could suffer like the SP did in 2012 when people watch the debates and realise that voting for them is ultimately a wasted vote. They will get 20 seats. Quote this on election day to make me look like an idiot.

[DavidB.]

Ah, the Swedish option. That is, of course, exactly the reason why any minority government has to have an effective parliamentary majority in the sense that the government needs to have the support of a minimum of 76 MPs even if the governing parties' number of seats does not add up to that number. And this is the reason why VVD-CDA-D66 are in deep sh**t if they don't have a majority with CU, SGP and 50Plus. In that case, a Belgian scenario cannot be ruled out, although I must say the flexibility of Dutch politicians after elections never ceases to amaze me. But yes, getting GL or PvdA on board to sustain such a right-wing government (at least on the economy) from the outside is really not going to happen. Basically, the larger the PVV becomes, the harder government formation will be. But regarding Rutte, I don't think there is an alternative to a coalition based on VVD-CDA-D66. Even in the event of a snap election in October 2017, triggered by a government formation crisis, I am not convinced Rutte would have to step down.

The PVV are going to lose some more virtual seats, I think, for the reason you describe, but I'd expect them to still end up with 24-27 seats. I would be surprised if they don't improve on their 2010 result, especially considering the fact that security (as opposed to the economy) seems to become the main election theme. At the same time, I don't think your estimate is a particularly strange one. Chances that they win 20 seats are higher than chances that they win 30 seats, imo (quote this on election day to make me look like an idiot).

[Dutch Conservative]

The VVD will end up with around 30 seats, probably as the largest party. Since the 2012 result was inflated because of the two-horse race, that means a "real" loss of approximately 7 seats.

I could see the VVD end up with more than 30 seats. Today I talked with some colleagues about politics. Some said: I'm not a big VVD fan, but I think Rutte has done a decent job. Its anecdotal I know, but as things stand now: I think the PM-bonus could be quit big this election. Especially when the economy holds out untill march. I could see the VVD end up with around 40 seats. Then a CDA+D'66 (I think many people are a bit tired of Pechtold) becomes a scenario, but probably still some seats short. The combination of CU+SGP could deliver about 8-10 seats, so then we are looking to a 5-party centre-right liberal-christian coalition. At this moment I would put my money on this scenario.