Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

*Mastercard jingle*

The Socialist Party losing seats after the economic crisis? A few million euros.

Managing to lose a seat as the left-wing alternative to the PvdA while they lose 29? Another several million euros.

Old boss Jan Marijnissen pulling a VVD Rotterdam and angrily telling newly elected SP MP Cem Laçin to have his Turkish family and friends congratulate him in Dutch instead of Turkish because "we're in the Netherlands here"? Priceless.

[mvd10]

A new peil poll
https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-maart-26.pdf

Not much changes since the election. But what's more interesting is the preferred coalition per party. 73% of VVD and CDA voters prefer a coalition with CU over a coalition with GL. But 80% of D66 voters want to work with GL. I think D66 will lose seats when we inevitably end up with VVD-CDA-D66-CU. Pechtold will become a minister (and probably also deputy PM, but that's purely symbolical) and especially if he is replaced by someone less charismatic the next election might be very ugly for D66. Which is funny because D66 would get a lot of it's policies in a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, they only would have to give up on some ethical issues. But the problem is that a lot of D66 voters don't really agree with some of D66's neoliberal economic policies and that would become painfully clear once D66 actually joins a centre-right coalition.

[DL]

Forgive me for asking a question that may have been answered a long time ago, but what is the difference between CDA and CU? Why aren't they one party?

[mvd10]

Forgive me for asking a question that may have been answered a long time ago, but what is the difference between CDA and CU? Why aren't they one party?

CU is much more socially conservative, but they are quite progressive on issues like refugees and climate change. The CU is a merger of two staunchly anti-catholic protestant parties, but lately the CU has been reaching out to conservative catholics. There even were a couple of catholics on the CU list. But that was unthinkable not too long ago, so I think the CU's anti-catholic past is a reason the CU hasn't merged with the CDA which has (or had) a very strong catholic base. And many of the more socially conservative CU voters wouldn't feel at ease in the CDA, which supports gay marriage and abortion.

[Zinneke]

*Mastercard jingle*

The Socialist Party losing seats after the economic crisis? A few million euros.

Managing to lose a seat as the left-wing alternative to the PvdA while they lose 29? Another several million euros.

Old boss Jan Marijnissen pulling a VVD Rotterdam and angrily telling newly elected SP MP Cem Laçin to have his Turkish family and friends congratulate him in Dutch instead of Turkish because "we're in the Netherlands here"? Priceless.

Stop attacking the man responsible for the coolest ad in Dutch political history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yt63rOUy-ng

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam. The DENK vote even more segregated than expected. A1 largest party in two predominantly black areas in borough Zuidoost. GL in the city center, East and Old West. D66 in more affluent "trendy" areas and, surprisingly pretty clearly, on the Amstel banks. VVD in affluent South (the large area in the north where they came first too is outside the city). PVV in North and the outer West, where some newer neighborhoods have a lower percentage of Muslims. Strong correlation PVV and SP vote: white working-class.


The Hague. Picture shows the railway, the separation sand vs. peat, the Laan van Meerdervoort...  I think I already discussed the patterns here, as well as the fact that this is clearly the most segregated city in the country, with the biggest extremes. Though if you have any questions, ask me (same for other places).


Rotterdam:

[Tintrlvr]

Are you sure the D66 and GL maps in The Hague are correct? Looks like the exact same map. I'm sure they are correlated, but would be surprised to learn they were correlated that strongly in the Hague when the correlation is only moderate in the other cities.

[DavidB.]

Are you sure the D66 and GL maps in The Hague are correct? Looks like the exact same map. I'm sure they are correlated, but would be surprised to learn they were correlated that strongly in the Hague when the correlation is only moderate in the other cities.

Yeah, you're right. The correlation should be extremely strong, more so than in Amsterdam, but they can't have the exact same map with the exact same percentages. D66 are much stronger than GL in affluent neighborhoods like Bezuidenhout (D66 21%, GL 13%), Benoordenhout (D66 19%, GL 6%), Belgisch Park (D66 16%, GL 8%), where the VVD are strong. See also: https://uitslagen.denhaag.nl/tweede-kamerverkiezing.

[DavidB.]

The well-liked Speaker, Khadija Arib (PvdA), will get another term: no other MP has sought to challenge her, which means she runs unopposed. It is unusual for an MP in the seventh party in parliament to be speaker, but these are the times we're living in. It will increase the workload for the other eight PvdA MPs, though. This is not an issue for a party with 20+ MPs, but in this case it surely is.

[DavidB.]

A Kantar poll found that 62% of higher educated people voted VVD, CDA, D66 or GroenLinks and only 29% of lower educated voters.

Trust in political leaders:
Lower educated voters: Rutte 39%, Roemer 33%, Wilders 31%, Pechtold 29%, Klaver 28%
Average education: Rutte 56%, Pechtold 41%, Klaver 29%, Roemer 25%, Wilders 19%
Higher educated voters: Rutte 72%, Pechtold 62%, Klaver 39%, Roemer 21%, Wilders 8%

Themes that played an important role (5, 6, 7 on a seven-point scale) in party choice:
Unemployment: Higher educated 44%, average education 49%, lower educated 53%
Healthcare: Higher 58%, average 65%, lower 69%
Elderly care: Higher 43%, average 61%, lower 69%
Immigration: Higher 47%, average 52%, lower 60%
Climate change: Higher 41%, average 27%, lower 24%
---

This afternoon, parliament will discuss the findings of "explorer" Edith Schippers, who will be appointed the "informateur" for the government formation negotiations of VVD, CDA, D66 and GroenLinks. The formation talks are expected to take a long time: it is only since 2012 that parliament is in control of the formation process instead of the King, and the 2012 talks are widely seen as a mistake because VVD and PvdA were in agreement too soon without taking into account their party members and voters. This time, all parties are bent on avoiding this mistake. I still think it is unlikely a GreenRight government will eventually be formed, but the talks may take a while to create the image that all parties were serious in trying to make a deal.

[mvd10]

Wilders heavily criticized Rutte for negotiating with Klaver. I imagine Rutte's handling of the row with Turkey convinced quite a few people who intended to vote PVV to vote for the VVD, but these people are going to be pissed when Rutte enters a coalition with GroenLinks. And Klaver once again made it very clear that he won't join a cabinet with right-wing policies on economic issues or immigration. He will demand a lot of concessions from the VVD (and to a lesser extent the CDA).

[DavidB.]

Wilders' attack on Rutte for trying to form a GreenRight government was pretty hilarious. "Not Rutte-III but Duyvendak-I, and guess [RaRa, for the Dutch...] who will be Justice Minister?" Wijnand Duyvendak was a GL MP but had to resign when news regarding his past as a rather radical environmental activist (some use the word terrorist here, not entirely without reason) was revealed. Many were surprised to see him return as Jesse Klaver's campaign leader. On election night, Klaver made sure to publicly thank and hug him. RaRa stands for Revolutionary Anti-Racist Action and was a group that didn't shy away from using political violence to reach their goals (but "rara" can also mean "guess" in spoken Dutch). Duyvendak himself has always denied being part of this group, but this is not entirely clear and it remains a controversial subject.

Klaver himself did well, though. As mvd10 said, it was clear he isn't exactly ready to give up on any of his principles and reiterated that the differences between the VVD and GL remain "super large".

Another hilarious part of the debate was when Baudet started his maiden speech in Latin ("Quo usque tandem factionem cartellum et officiorum magina, patientia nostra abuditur dum navis praetoria resurrectionis ad profiscendum parata est?") and was warned by Speaker Arib to talk in Dutch.

[Zinneke]

Can you explain what Baudet means by party cartel? Does he include PVV/SP in that cartel?

[DavidB.]

Can you explain what Baudet means by party cartel? Does he include PVV/SP in that cartel?

He means the mainstream parties that always govern this country in some composition, so CDA/PvdA/VVD/D66/GroenLinks (the latter of which has never governed nationally but has an important role on lower levels of government and is absolutely coalitionable). Not PVV and SP, partly because they never govern and partly because he emphasizes the importance of the "job carousel" (baantjescarrousel) and PVV/SP don't engage in this system, where failed politicians can always be appointed mayor somewhere or get a well-payed management job in semi-public healthcare, education or infrastructure organizations. According to FvD, 10,000 cartel party members rule this country and they do so in their own interest, not in the country's interest.

Connected to the party cartel is the "media cartel", which is led by people with a party political affiliation (all members of the "cartel parties", mainly PvdA/D66). Baudet even referred to the Dutch Public Broadcaster (NPO) in his maiden speech: he wants big budget cuts and more neutrality. The neutrality of the NPO has been under fire for some years already, mainly due to PVV ideologue Martin Bosma, who, together with GeenStijl, popularized and normalized referring to the NPO as the "state broadcaster" (staatsomroep), something people within the NPO absolutely hate.

[Zinneke]

Can you explain what Baudet means by party cartel? Does he include PVV/SP in that cartel?

He means the mainstream parties that always govern this country in some composition, so CDA/PvdA/VVD/D66/GroenLinks (the latter of which has never governed nationally but has an important role on lower levels of government and is absolutely coalitionable). Not PVV and SP, partly because they never govern and partly because he emphasizes the importance of the "job carousel" (baantjescarrousel) and PVV/SP don't engage in this system, where failed politicians can always be appointed mayor somewhere or get a well-payed management job in semi-public healthcare, education or infrastructure organizations. According to FvD, 10,000 cartel party members rule this country and they do so in their own interest, not in the country's interest.

Sure, but what solution does he propose for conflicts of interest, that seem to exist across the boards in democracies where anyone can stand for election? Does he want a tabula rasa of the Dutch political party outlook?

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That's a shame, I quite like the NPO. A bit more low brow than the VRT, but entertaining nonetheless.

Does he have source on PvdA/D66 members having infiltrated the NPO? I get the whole Muslim Omroep programs thingy, but at the same time the NPO gave his party quite a bit of attention compared to say, VNL.

[DavidB.]

He wants to end "internal vacancies" and appointments through the networks of the "cartel parties" and instead open all vacancies to the public. This seems like a good idea to me, but it is easier said and done and at the end of the day party political networks are always going to remain relevant. Baudet also wants a technocratic government without party politicians solely consisting of experts that rules on the basis of case-by-case parliamentary majorities on the issues.

Many prominent people in the NPO are pretty open about their political affiliation (often PvdA). Henk Hagoort, the chairman of the board of the NPO from 2008 until 2016, is a CDA member. In this election, PvdA, VVD, CDA and D66 received most NPO attention -- arguably justified for the VVD but perhaps less so for CDA and PvdA. Ironically, FvD and Baudet, indeed, also receive a LOT of attention (indeed, more than is "warranted" based on their size), though this is partly due to right-wing trolling broadcaster Powned being part of the NPO.

The Moslim Omroep (NMO) doesn't exist anymore, just like the Joodse Omroep. Zijlstra (Rutte-I) and Dekker (Rutte-II), the VVD deputy ministers responsible for the NPO, already slashed the budget and forced most broadcasters to merge over the last seven years.

[DavidB.]

Today, the trial against Michael Heemels, former assistant to Geert Wilders, has started in Maastricht. Heemels was responsible for the PVV's financial administration and stole 176,000 euros out of the party's piggy bank, which is part of the reason why they were too broke to organize a proper general election campaign. Of course, trusting someone from the South with their money was bound to be a mistake Heemels lived a life of luxury and was addicted to cocaine. The public prosecutor wants to #LockHimUp for at least six months. To be continued.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Today, the trial against Michael Heemels, former assistant to Geert Wilders, has started in Maastricht. Heemels was responsible for the PVV's financial administration and stole 176,000 euros out of the party's piggy bank, which is part of the reason why they were too broke to organize a proper general election campaign

Sounds like an ff to me.

[Zanas]

Another hilarious part of the debate was when Baudet started his maiden speech in Latin ("Quo usque tandem factionem cartellum et officiorum magina, patientia nostra abuditur dum navis praetoria resurrectionis ad profiscendum parata est?") and was warned by Speaker Arib to talk in Dutch.

My hero!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First of many, I hope.

[DavidB.]

Great map, Al!

Results for all polling stations in Amsterdam on a map in English: here.

[SunSt0rm]

Rotterdam

[DavidB.]

The Hague: combination VVD-CDA-D66-GL has a majority in areas that are middle-class and more affluent than that: best scores in the very rich, green Benoordenhout and Belgisch Park areas, where a lot of embassies are located. Mark Rutte lives there. Worst performances in working-class areas, white and non-white ones alike; worst scores in the Schilderswijk, where DENK got 46%, but also in more mixed Moerwijk.

I think I can hear some social democrats sigh deeply now, but they probably voted GL too.

[freek]

Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

[DavidB.]

Because the results came in so late, much fewer statistics were produced by the newspapers than usual. I've tried to compose lists of the best results. May (no: will) contain errors. Don't overanalyze this; these places aren't necessarily representative of voting patterns for parties (e.g. the VVD coalition is much bigger than only rich people, and the PVV is becoming less of a Limburg-based party than ever before despite still peaking there).

Turnout: (excluding the islands)
Rozendaal 95.8%
Staphorst 91.2%
Urk 89.8%
Haren 89.3%
Oegstgeest 89.2%
Bloemendaal 88.9%
Renswoude 88.8%
Blaricum 88.4%
Heiloo 88.3%
Molenwaard 88.3%
Zederik 88.3%

More Bible Belt municipalities in the top 10 (Urk, Renswoude, Molenwaard, Staphorst, Zederik). Interesting to see how turnout has gone up pretty steeply in Bible Belt municipalities that had pretty high turnout in the first place.

VVD:
Laren 47.1%
Rozendaal 43.7%
Wassenaar 41.7%
Bloemendaal 39.8%
Blaricum 39.4%
Beemster 36.3%
Heemstede 36.2%
Aalsmeer 34.8%
Westvoorne 34.8%
Wijdemeren 34.3%

The usual ones, mostly.

PVV:
Rucphen 38.9%
Brunssum 26.4%
Landgraaf 26.3%
Onderbanken 24.8%
Pekela 24%
Nissewaard 23.7%
Roerdalen 23.5%
Stein 22.7%
Echt-Susteren 22.6%
Simpelveld 22.6%

Almost all of them are in Limburg except for Pekela (Groningen, poorest place in the country), Rucphen (West-Brabant) and Nissewaard (working-class white flight Rotterdam suburb).

CDA:
Tubbergen 41.7%
Dinkelland 37%
Ommen 32.1%
Dalfsen 31.2%
Hellendoorn 30.4%
Dongeradeel 30%
Wierden 29.6%
Twenterand 29.4%
Raalte 29%
Kollumerland en Nieuwkruisland 28.2%

All in rural Overijssel and northeast Friesland.

D66:
Wageningen 23.2%
Utrecht 22.2%
Leiden 20.9%
Delft 20.3%
Oegstgeest 20%
Groningen 19.9%
Nijmegen 19.5%
Amsterdam 18.8%
Heemstede 18.7%
Bloemendaal 18.2%

University cities and very wealthy suburbs; I don't think the latter type of places featured as prominently in their top 10 before. D66 are now larger in rich Heemstede and Bloemendaal than in the city of Haarlem, for example, becoming increasingly suburban. Almost no difference between D66 performance in Groningen and Haren, in Leiden and Oegstgeest, in Amsterdam and Amstelveen.

GroenLinks:
Utrecht 20.2%
Nijmegen 20.1%
Wageningen 20.1%
Amsterdam 19.7%
Groningen 18.9%
Leiden 16.9%
Haarlem 15.6%
Arnhem 14.4%
Alkmaar 12.8%
Leeuwarden 12.8%

Medium-sized cities with a bobo presence; university cities.

SP:
Boxmeer 27.5%
Pekela 24%
Gennep 21.6%
Bergen (L) 20.3%
Menterwolde 20.2%
Sint Anthonis 20.2%
Appingedam 19.5%
Oldambt 19.5%
Cuijk 19.3%
Emmen 18.6%

All in Eastern Groningen or the East Brabant/North Limburg region where Roemer hails from. The SP lost heavily in the south and the west and gained in the north (at the expense of the PvdA, particularly in Eastern Groningen), rural Gelderland and Zeeland.

PvdA (LOL)
Terschelling 11.7%
Leeuwarderadeel 10.9%
Winsum 10.9%
Aa en Hunze 10.6%
Heerenveen 10.6%
Noordenveld 10.4%
Leeuwarden 10.1%
Schiermonnikoog 10.1%
Menameradiel 10%
Opsterland 9.7%

All in the north; 1 in Groningen, 2 in Drenthe, 7 in Friesland. The picture shouldn't even be that different from 2012 except that Amsterdam isn't here... but the percentages are

CU: (probably contains errors)
Bunschoten 25.5%
Oldebroek 20.4%
Elburg 17.7%
Hattem 16.5%
Zwartewaterland 16.5%
Hardinxveld-Giessendam 16.4%
Staphorst 16.4%
Zuidhorn 15.1%
Molenwaard 14%
Kampen 13.9%

All Bible Belt. Will do other parties later.