Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[TheSaint250]

What's the threshold to get into Parliament?

[Tender Branson]

What's the threshold to get into Parliament?

4%* - unlike in Germany, where it is 5%.

* or a basic mandate in one of the 39 regional electoral districts. A basic mandate requires roughly 20-25% of the vote in such a district, depending on turnout. So far, a party has never received a basic mandate without also getting 4% or more nationwide.

[TheSaint250]

Ah ok

If you were to use the latest poll, what would the seat totals come up to if the election were held?

[Tender Branson]

Ah ok

If you were to use the latest poll, what would the seat totals come up to if the election were held?

  62 ÖVP (+15)
  49 SPÖ (-3)
  45 FPÖ (+5)
  10 NEOS (+1)
  10 PILZ (+10)
    7 Greens (-17)
183 Total

* TS with 11 seats is out.

[TheSaint250]

Thanks!

[Tender Branson]

Debate and discussion silly season is fully underway:

Tonight on PULS 4 TV, there's a 1 hour debate between Strache (FPÖ) and Strolz (NEOS) - starting in 10 minutes, followed by Strache vs. Lunacek (Greens) an hour later.

Altogether, there are some 80 (!) debates over the next month ...

[Tender Branson]

PULS 4 live debate stream (FPÖ vs. NEOS):

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

Can anyone check if it works abroad ? As a test for the actual election.

[Sozialliberal]

Debate and discussion silly season is fully underway:

Tonight on PULS 4 TV, there's a 1 hour debate between Strache (FPÖ) and Strolz (NEOS) - starting in 10 minutes, followed by Strache vs. Lunacek (Greens) an hour later.

Altogether, there are some 80 (!) debates over the next month ...

I actually like the variety of the Austrian debates. I wish we could have more varied debates in Germany, too: Schulz (SPD) vs Lindner (FDP), Merkel (CDU) vs Weidel (AfD), Göring-Eckardt (Greens) vs Herrmann (CSU), Schulz (SPD) vs Wagenknecht (Die Linke) etc.

However, I must agree that 80 debates in one month is over the top.

PULS 4 live debate stream (FPÖ vs. NEOS):

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

Can anyone check if it works abroad ? As a test for the actual election.

It works in Germany.

[Tender Branson]

Christian Lindner (FDP-leader) will campaign "heavily" for NEOS in Austria after the German election.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wahl2017/NEOS-Wahlhilfe-aus-Deutschland/298734576

[Tender Branson]

Kurz's "On the Move !" campaign tour is now in Innsbruck, the capital of Tyrol and there's once again a massive crowd on that square (probably 5000 people).

But that's no surprise, considering Tyrol will likely be the best state for Kurz.

Kurz himself is speaking soon:

https://secure.sebastian-kurz.at/livestream

[Tender Branson]

Very good speech by Kurz ... and if crowd sizes are an indicator, then the 33% won't be enough for Kurz. He'll probably end up with 35-38%. At the expense of the FPÖ, Greens and NEOS.

While I'll probably vote for the SPÖ or NEOS, I think Kern has no chance anymore.

My current prediction: 36% ÖVP, 28% SPÖ, 22% FPÖ, 4% Greens, 4% NEOS, 4% Pilz, 2% Others

There will likely be some bandwagon-effect for the big parties, while the small parties will get crushed.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian parliament building interior is being torn down right now, because the 150-year old building will be fully renovated over the next 3 years.

The Nationalrat and Bundesrat halls now looks like this:





The interim parliament at the Hofburg is ready and will be used next week for the first time:









The pavillions on the left and right are the new offices of the MPs and parties:



http://derstandard.at/2000063973720/Die-Ausweichquartiere-des-Parlaments

[Tender Branson]

In 2 hours, the first major debate between Kern, Kurz and Strache will take place at the Design Center in Linz, in front of 1000 people in the audience and numerous journalists from abroad.

Live stream:

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5285833/Heute-live-ab-15-Uhr_Kern-Kurz-und-Strache-die-einzige

[Tender Branson]

New weekly Ö24 poll shows the FPÖ up a point and the Greens down a point:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wahl2017/fpoe/Umfrage-Jetzt-holt-Strache-auf/299504703

[Tender Branson]

In 2 hours, the first major debate between Kern, Kurz and Strache will take place at the Design Center in Linz, in front of 1000 people in the audience and numerous journalists from abroad.

Live stream:

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5285833/Heute-live-ab-15-Uhr_Kern-Kurz-und-Strache-die-einzige

Poll of 500 representative debate-watchers:

Who won ?



Who convinced you the most to vote for him on Oct. 15 ?



http://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5286437/UmfrageErgebnisse_DreierKonfrontation_Wer-hat-die-Zuschauer

[TheSaint250]

Do you think the chances of the FPÖ getting second place have risen?

Personally, I feel like they might underpoll just like other similar parties in Europe, but I'd like to hear your perspective.

[Tender Branson]

Do you think the chances of the FPÖ getting second place have risen?

Personally, I feel like they might underpoll just like other similar parties in Europe, but I'd like to hear your perspective.

Very hard to tell ...

The FPÖ seems to have gained 1-2% over the past weeks in the few polls that were released (like the AfD in Germany).

I don't think that the FPÖ underpolls. Polls for the parliamentary elections have always correctly predicted the FPÖ result within a point.

The first round of the presidential election was a big outlier, because it was candidate-based (pollsters underestimated the likeability of Hofer) and the immigrant wave at this point and the rapes in Cologne.

All of this has passed, Arab and African immigration levels (while still high) are down from the 2015 record.

Plus Kurz is really attracting a lot of FPÖ- and previous non-voters. Polls show that ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters are the most committed to voting and voting for their preferred parties, so it is unlikely that Kurz will lose ground to the FPÖ on election day.

And the small parties are being squeezed though by the battle at the top: Many Green-voters will go to the SPÖ this time (and to Pilz), whereas the SPÖ is losing voters to the FPÖ and Pilz etc. - The voter transfers chart will be crazy in this election.

[TheSaint250]

Ok thank you!

[Tender Branson]

Some pictures from the 1st debate with Kern, Kurz, Strache:







[/img]

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ out with their first attack ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRyyNj_CBP4

"SPÖVP has created a fairness-crisis in the country, by allowing 100.000s of asylum seekers into the country. An unfair social system, which hands out all-inclusive welfare to people who never paid into the system before. An unfair pension system, in which newly-arrived migrants get the same amount of welfare as an Austrian who worked up to 50 years. And an unfair healthcare system, in which people who paid into the system for years don't get the proper care they deserve."

[Tender Branson]

IMAS poll for the "Krone" (method: face-to-face (!), n=1033, August 17-September 11):

Projected turnout: 80%





http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/ist-das-wahl-rennen-schon-laengst-gelaufen-kurz-haushoch-vorne-story-588908

[Tender Branson]

Today at 11:05 AM (!):

The debate of the small party candidates on the public ORF.

Live stream:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-17-Diskussion-der-Kleinparteien/13930748

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* Despite polling above the 4% threshold, Peter Pilz will only be invited to the small party debate, because of the ORF's criteria of group status in parliament (Pilz has 4 MPs in parliament, but 5 are needed for a parliamentary group).

[Tender Branson]

I saw many destroyed Green posters next to the roads today ... not sure if they were destroyed by the bad weather over the last week (massive rain and winds) or by people:

 

The much bigger ÖVP and FPÖ posters (5 meters in size) were undamaged.

[Tender Branson]

I was notified that my postal ballot was sent to me today and I should get it tomorrow*.

Problem: I still don't know how to vote (SPÖ, ÖVP, NEOS and Pilz remain as options)

* In Austria, you need to personally receive your absentee ballot and sign it on the postal worker's handheld device. If you are not at home, you will get a notification to pick it up at your local post office and sign it there, so that nobody else can pick it up for you or vote with your postal ballot ...

[Tender Branson]

The final number of eligible voters has been released, after the period of objection:

6.401.304

More than 60.000 Austrians living abroad have registered to vote, a new record. But this number is still low, because there are some 550.000 Austrian citizens living abroad - of which some 450.000 are older than the voting-age (16). Most Austrians abroad obviously do not care about their native politics any longer, but the 60K number is still 50% higher than in 2013.