Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

In the latest SPÖ poster campaign, Chancellor Kern lifts a child up to the glass ceiling.

The slogan is: "Forward together."



Very Hillary-esque ...

[rob in cal]

  Has President Van der Bellen had much to say about the campaign and the possibility (likelihood?) that he may soon have to swear in members of the FPO into a new cabinet?

[TheSaint250]

  Has President Van der Bellen had much to say about the campaign and the possibility (likelihood?) that he may soon have to swear in members of the FPO into a new cabinet?

He has talked about preferring to have a pro-EU government in place.

[Tender Branson]

 Has President Van der Bellen had much to say about the campaign and the possibility (likelihood?) that he may soon have to swear in members of the FPO into a new cabinet?

President Van der Bellen has acted very ... Presidential over the past few weeks, meaning that he stayed out of the campaign.

Only last week (when the dirty campaigning accusations started/came to light), he made a statement:

"For the last 2 weeks of the election campaign, I expect the parties to confront the challenges that people and the country are facing and a fair campaign style with each other - which continues to allow parties to work together after the campaign is over. No party will get a majority of the vote, therefore the parties need an intact base for future talks and negotiations. Politics should go beyond the daily headlines. A politician should be able to see the world through the eyes of future generations. Through the eyes of the kids. Through the eyes of the grandkids."

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/van-der-bellen-kritisiert-unkultur-des-gegeneinander/289.567.645

No word about swearing in a possible ÖVP-FPÖ or FPÖVP coalition though ...

[Tender Branson]

A new Reuters article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-election/austrias-conservatives-social-democrats-to-sue-each-other-ahead-of-vote-idUSKBN1CB163?il=0

Watch the FPÖ surge ...

[Tender Branson]

Our election campaign right now in 3 GIFs:

SPÖ and ÖVP ...



FPÖ ...



Greens, NEOS, Pilz ...

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ out with another ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0LowKamQfw

Illegal immigrants are like children who get magically attracted to sweets, just that our welfare payments are the "sweets" they are attracted to.

[jaichind]

I have to imagine that everyone other than SPÖ and ÖVP gains from the most recent events from SPÖ and ÖVP.

[parochial boy]

Assuming that, as they surely will, the SPö finish well behind öVP, they had better stay out of government, rather than blemish themselves further with being the junior partner in yet another grand coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Assuming that, as they surely will, the SPö finish well behind öVP, they had better stay out of government, rather than blemish themselves further with being the junior partner in yet another grand coalition.

Considering the recent Silberstein/Facebook/dirty campaigning/lawsuit-related events, it is virtually impossible that SPÖ and ÖVP form another coalition after next Sunday.

---

Anyway, Strache and FPÖ can lean back and chill over the next week and let SPÖ and ÖVP destroy each other.

Today, Strache/Hofer are campaigning in 4 cities in the battleground state of Upper Austria, for example in this packed shopping mall outside Linz:



It would have been nice to see the FPÖ end up around 20% in an election (= not gaining compared with the last), but SPÖ and ÖVP always find a way to f**k things up to help them ...

[Tender Branson]

With just one week to go, there's an interesting new (final) poll out today by OGM for the "Kurier" newspaper (OGM is historically the most reliable pollster):



The SPÖ actually gained 1% compared with their previous poll ...

Also, turnout looks to be higher:



79% are certain to vote
  6% are likely to vote
  9% are still unsure if the'll vote
  6% won't vote, or vote invalid

Among the 79% certain voters, 68% have definitely decided on a vote choice. 23% are more or less sure how they'll vote. 9% are still making up their minds.

On the right: "Do you think the SPÖ should go into opposition or remain in government if they fail to get 1st place ?"

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-kurz-bleibt-vor-kern-und-strache-kleinparteien-muessen-zittern/290.566.272

[Tender Branson]

A possible explanation for the good OGM poll numbers for the SPÖ and the weak ones for Greens/Pilz:

Former Green voters and those flirting with Pilz are realizing that the FPÖ now has the momentum and are therefore tactically switching to Kern/SPÖ to stop them. We saw a similar thing in the 2015 Vienna state election.

Plus, the SPÖ could actually get some additional voters because of the recent Facebook/dirty campaign accusations: Some voters could ally with Kern, because they think ÖVP/FPÖ+some tabloid media launched an unjustified smear campaign against him.

[Tender Branson]

From the "Krone" series called "Kids ask frontrunners important political questions" - such as "Will I get a pension when I'm old ?" or "What are you doing for animal rights ?":

Kern: "I may have a big nose, but I don't lie."



http://www.krone.at/592360



http://www.krone.at/592013



http://www.krone.at/591705



http://www.krone.at/590795

[Tender Branson]

Here are the most important dates for the election:

* Wednesday: last day to request a postal ballot online or by (e)-mail

* Friday: last day to request a postal ballot in person.

* Saturday 9am: last possible date to throw in your postal ballot, so that arrival (5pm Sunday) is guaranteed.

* Sunday 6am: Election day, some precincts open (most open between 7-9am).

* Sunday 1pm: Polls close ... in Vorarlberg. Other cities like Vienna at 5pm.

* Sunday 8pm: An election day result can be expected at this point.

* Monday 9am: The postal ballots (which arrived no later than Sunday 5pm) will be counted.

* Oct. 31: The FEC will announce the certified result (assuming no party challenges the results).

* November 9: The new parliament and MPs will convene + be inaugurated.

* Coalition formation: unknown how long it will take and when they are going to be sworn in

[mgop]

12 year olds thinking about pension lol

[Tender Branson]

The preliminary weather forecast for election day, next Sunday:

A nice and sunny fall day, with 20°C and almost no clouds. The 2 Presidential election runoffs last year had the same nice weather, while the first round where Hofer hugely ouperformed the polls had crappy rain weather.

[Tender Branson]

House of Cards - Austrian style:

The "spy" or whistleblower within the SPÖ, who leaked Silberstein's dirty campaigning methods against Kurz to the ÖVP and media, has been named as "Anna J." - a translator for Silberstein (because he only talked English and Hebrew and no German).

The "Anna J." woman is now speculated to have been planted by the ÖVP as a spy within the SPÖ campaign to leak data and set the party up for an "explosion" that will destroy them before the election (which also happened, sort-of).



In today's Krone, a friend of "Anna J." said she's now afraid for her security and is in need of psychological help because of everything. An adviser to Kern apparently bombarded her with Whatsapp messages, saying that he'd offer her twice the amount of the ÖVP if she shuts up ...

http://www.krone.at/592447

http://derstandard.at/2000065531147/Fussi-bot-Silberstein-Uebersetzerin-Geld-fuer-seine-Mails

[TheSaint250]

House of Cards - Austrian style:

The "spy" or whistleblower within the SPÖ, who leaked Silberstein's dirty campaigning methods against Kurz to the ÖVP and media, has been named as "Anna J." - a translator for Silberstein (because he only talked English and Hebrew and no German).

The "Anna J." woman is now speculated to have been planted by the ÖVP as a spy within the SPÖ campaign to leak data and set the party up for an "explosion" that will destroy them before the election (which also happened, sort-of).



In today's Krone, a friend of "Anna J." said she's now afraid for her security and is in need of psychological help because of everything. An adviser to Kern apparently bombarded her with Whatsapp messages, saying that he'd offer her twice the amount of the ÖVP if she shuts up ...

http://www.krone.at/592447

http://derstandard.at/2000065531147/Fussi-bot-Silberstein-Uebersetzerin-Geld-fuer-seine-Mails

Geez

Austrian politics is riveting

[Tender Branson]

House of Cards - Austrian style:

The "spy" or whistleblower within the SPÖ, who leaked Silberstein's dirty campaigning methods against Kurz to the ÖVP and media, has been named as "Anna J." - a translator for Silberstein (because he only talked English and Hebrew and no German).

The "Anna J." woman is now speculated to have been planted by the ÖVP as a spy within the SPÖ campaign to leak data and set the party up for an "explosion" that will destroy them before the election (which also happened, sort-of).



In today's Krone, a friend of "Anna J." said she's now afraid for her security and is in need of psychological help because of everything. An adviser to Kern apparently bombarded her with Whatsapp messages, saying that he'd offer her twice the amount of the ÖVP if she shuts up ...

http://www.krone.at/592447

http://derstandard.at/2000065531147/Fussi-bot-Silberstein-Uebersetzerin-Geld-fuer-seine-Mails

Geez

Austrian politics is riveting

It just shows how unfathomable the hate between SPÖ and ÖVP is these days ...

[rob in cal]

  So there is a danger of just enough Pilz and Green voters going over to the SPD to help them reach the number two spot and get a support level in the high 20's, but that in turn puts those parties in danger of not winning any seats.  If I was on the left I'd rather want to make sure all three parties win seats rather than helping the biggest one win a few more.  Looks like more fun with thresholds in store for us.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ accuses the ÖVP of stealing their promising election slogans !

In mid-August, the SPÖ was testing several slogans in focus groups that they would later use on their posters.

For example, the slogans: "For secure pensions. For us all." or "Leading Austria back to the top (in economic terms). For us all." were very popular in the focus groups of representative Austrian voters.

A few days later, the ÖVP presented their new posters with exactly these popular slogans ...

Also, the SPÖ found that raising the pension age quickly along the rise of life expectancy is unpopular with a huge majority of voters, especially the FPÖ-voting working class.

A few days later, the ÖVP abandoned or watered down their position on rising the pension age quickly ...

For the SPÖ more evidence that the ÖVP planted a spy within their ranks.

http://derstandard.at/2000065556778/SPOe-bezichtigt-OeVP-rote-Slogans-verwendet-zu-haben

[Tender Branson]

 So there is a danger of just enough Pilz and Green voters going over to the SPD to help them reach the number two spot and get a support level in the high 20's, but that in turn puts those parties in danger of not winning any seats.  If I was on the left I'd rather want to make sure all three parties win seats rather than helping the biggest one win a few more.  Looks like more fun with thresholds in store for us.

On the other hand, if the SPÖ remains in the mid/high-20s because the small parties get squeezed and kicked out of parliament, the SPÖ would be the only remaining opposition party in parliament - assuming ÖVP/FPÖ is the result in coalition talks. Which means a better chance to position themselves for the next election.

[Tender Branson]

The actor who played the tatoo-artist in the FPÖ's latest ad, actually supports ... Chancellor Kern:

https://www.facebook.com/bundeskanzler.christian.kern/videos/vb.603996709755642/882211878600789/?type=3&theater

[Tender Branson]

Kurz vs. Kern debate on PULS 4 right now.

Absolutely brutal so far ...

Somewhere in the audience is HC Strache, who is probably laughing his ass off right now (Strache will debate Kurz right after this debate).

[Tender Branson]

Kern just had a few really good attack lines against Kurz, portraying him as an anti-social who accepts donations from big business who in turn will demand generous corporate tax cuts if he wins. Plus as someone who neglects and hurts single moms with his proposed cuts in social services.