ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

[wesmoorenerd]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

I somewhat agree and somewhat disagree. If Schumer really does manage to get two Republicans on the No side, every single Dem has absolutely no excuse to vote to confirm. If Schumer doesn't manage two Republicans, then I wouldn't particularly care, but in reality there's only one Dem I could see benefiting from voting Yes (Manchin). Everybody else, including Heitkamp, would probably be better off voting against Kavanaugh.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

I somewhat agree and somewhat disagree. If Schumer really does manage to get two Republicans on the No side, every single Dem has absolutely no excuse to vote to confirm. If Schumer doesn't manage two Republicans, then I wouldn't particularly care, but in reality there's only one Dem I could see benefiting from voting Yes (Manchin). Everybody else, including Heitkamp, would probably be better off voting against Kavanaugh.

Schumer won't get two republicans, but if he somehow does, then I would reluctantly support pushing back on Kavanaugh.

[Brittain33]

Unless Ford face plants at her testimony, no Dem is going to vote for Kavanaugh. They have enough cover to get out of having to vote yes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unless Ford face plants at her testimony, no Dem is going to vote for Kavanaugh. They have enough cover to get out of having to vote yes.

That's not nearly enough cover for Manchin, his state does not give a crap whether or not Kavanaugh did it.

[junior chįmp]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

[junior chįmp]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

Trump will whip up this issue in ND and other states if they vote no, and it will be different.

[junior chįmp]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

Trump will whip up this issue in ND and other states if they vote no, and it will be different.

Nobody cares what Trump thinks or whips up either. Trump held rallies for Saccone and Moore and they still lost. And those that won like Handel and Balderson barely made it when those races shouldnt of even been on the radar.

Atlas keeps acting like Trump had this enormous amount of power to single handedly defeat a candidate even though the GOP is barely holding seats that havent voted Dem in decades

[Antonio the Sixth]

My God Bagel just shut up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

Trump will whip up this issue in ND and other states if they vote no, and it will be different.

Nobody cares what Trump thinks or whips up either. Trump held rallies for Saccone and Moore and they still lost. And those that won like Handel and Balderson barely made it when those races shouldnt of even been on the radar.

Atlas keeps acting like Trump had this enormous amount of power to single handedly defeat a candidate even though the GOP is barely holding seats that havent voted Dem in decades

Morrisey and Cramer are much better candidates than Moore and Saccone, and WV and ND are much redder and have higher approval ratings for Trump than all of those places. Also it is midterm turnout, not special election crowds.

[Doimper]

My God Bagel just shut up.

[TarHeelDem]

My God Bagel just shut up.

[junior chįmp]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

Trump will whip up this issue in ND and other states if they vote no, and it will be different.

Nobody cares what Trump thinks or whips up either. Trump held rallies for Saccone and Moore and they still lost. And those that won like Handel and Balderson barely made it when those races shouldnt of even been on the radar.

Atlas keeps acting like Trump had this enormous amount of power to single handedly defeat a candidate even though the GOP is barely holding seats that havent voted Dem in decades

Morrisey and Cramer are much better candidates than Moore and Saccone, and WV and ND are much redder and have higher approval ratings for Trump than all of those places. Also it is midterm turnout, not special election crowds.

Doesn't matter. None of them will lose due to how they voted for Kavanaugh. If they lose then they were always going to lose. Its laughable that the GOP thinks that running on "appointing textualist judges" will bost GOP turnout. The average voter cant even spell textualist let alone factor in these things when they go to vote.

Also....Obama won Illinois by 25% in 2008, held a high approval rating there, and the Dems still lost the Senate race there in 2010. Why? Because national enviorment and fundamentals matter more than how much someone won by in the previous election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

Trump will whip up this issue in ND and other states if they vote no, and it will be different.

Nobody cares what Trump thinks or whips up either. Trump held rallies for Saccone and Moore and they still lost. And those that won like Handel and Balderson barely made it when those races shouldnt of even been on the radar.

Atlas keeps acting like Trump had this enormous amount of power to single handedly defeat a candidate even though the GOP is barely holding seats that havent voted Dem in decades

Morrisey and Cramer are much better candidates than Moore and Saccone, and WV and ND are much redder and have higher approval ratings for Trump than all of those places. Also it is midterm turnout, not special election crowds.

Doesn't matter. None of them will lose due to how they voted for Kavanaugh. If they lose then they were always going to lose. Its laughable that the GOP thinks that running on "appointing textualist judges" will bost GOP turnout. The average voter cant even spell textualist let alone factor in these things when they go to vote.

Also....Obama won Illinois by 25% in 2008, held a high approval rating there, and the Dems still lost the Senate race there in 2010. Why? Because national enviorment and fundamentals matter more than how much someone won by in the previous election.

It will boost GOP turnout a bit, but it will also sway the already turned out electorate in those conservative states to the GOP.

[Zaybay]

Ffs, none of the red state Dems are voting to confirm Kavanaugh. They'd demoralize their base and sink their chances for reelection. If Heitkamp wins it's going to be because female voters put her over the top. And Heitkamp knows this.

As long as Schumer don't got 2 republicans in the bag, there will be at least one or two dems to vote for him. There is no base to piss off in WV, only room for Manchin to grow if he does the right thing for his reelection by voting yes. I don't like Kavanaugh, and in an ideal world, I would want to stop him. But we have to save our red state dems, so confirm him even if he did it (plus he was a minor at the time of the alleged incident). He will also be confirmed just like Clarence Thomas.

Nonody in WV cares about how Manchin votes on Kavanaugh

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/09/10/west-virginia-poll-voters-say-manchin-should-vote-to-confirm-kavanaugh/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

Yeah...they tell the pollsters that but they dont actually care in real life. The polls said Garland should be confirmed and Dems lost anyway because people dont actually care about this stuff except on a superficial level

Trump will whip up this issue in ND and other states if they vote no, and it will be different.

Nobody cares what Trump thinks or whips up either. Trump held rallies for Saccone and Moore and they still lost. And those that won like Handel and Balderson barely made it when those races shouldnt of even been on the radar.

Atlas keeps acting like Trump had this enormous amount of power to single handedly defeat a candidate even though the GOP is barely holding seats that havent voted Dem in decades

Morrisey and Cramer are much better candidates than Moore and Saccone, and WV and ND are much redder and have higher approval ratings for Trump than all of those places. Also it is midterm turnout, not special election crowds.

Doesn't matter. None of them will lose due to how they voted for Kavanaugh. If they lose then they were always going to lose. Its laughable that the GOP thinks that running on "appointing textualist judges" will bost GOP turnout. The average voter cant even spell textualist let alone factor in these things when they go to vote.

Also....Obama won Illinois by 25% in 2008, held a high approval rating there, and the Dems still lost the Senate race there in 2010. Why? Because national enviorment and fundamentals matter more than how much someone won by in the previous election.

It will boost GOP turnout a bit, but it will also sway the already turned out electorate in those conservative states to the GOP.

Just to pretend that the polling showing Red State Dems doing worse when they vote for Kavanaugh instead of against doesnt exist, when has a Supreme Court appointment in anyway changed a significant amount of voters to sway an election?

[YE]

Morrisey and Cramer are much better candidates than Moore and Saccone, and WV and ND are much redder and have higher approval ratings for Trump than all of those places. Also it is midterm turnout, not special election crowds.

No they aren't. Cramer just had that gaffe on Kavanaugh and Morrirsey is too fiscally conservative. Also ND and WV both have long histories of voting Democrat down ballot, especially in GOP mid-terms. No reason for 2018 to be that much different really.

[junior chįmp]

Just to pretend that polling the polling showing Red State Dems doing worse when they vote for Kavanaugh instead of against doesnt exist, when has a Supreme Court appointment in anyway changed a significant amount of voters to sway an election?

Its never swayed an election but now Atlas wants to pretend that somehow things that have never mattered before now suddenly matter under Trump; the guy with a 38% approval rating with a booming economy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey and Cramer are much better candidates than Moore and Saccone, and WV and ND are much redder and have higher approval ratings for Trump than all of those places. Also it is midterm turnout, not special election crowds.

No they aren't. Cramer just had that gaffe on Kavanaugh and Morrirsey is too fiscally conservative. Also ND and WV both have long histories of voting Democrat down ballot, especially in GOP mid-terms. No reason for 2018 to be that much different really.

I want to believe....

[pppolitics]

I am hoping for a new poll to see how the race has shifted since Cramer's gaffe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am hoping for a new poll to see how the race has shifted since Cramer's gaffe.

Give it a few more days so the message can spread enough. I do think this hurts though, I think Cramer edges out by only 1-2 points now.

[IceSpear]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

Yeah, this is a state that gave a 36 point margin to the pussygrabber.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kind of off topic, but I had a dream last night that a poll was released that had Heitkamp leading 24-14 with 62% undecided, and everyone on Atlas took it seriously and acted like she was heavily favored because she now had a double digit lead.

Weird, I had that same dream, except it was a Beto lead.

[pbrower2a]

Cramer with some remarkable tone deafness on Kavanaugh

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/21/politics/kfile-cramer/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Drunkenness does not excuse a sexual assault. Neither does being seventeen at the time. Having had one beer does not make one drunk, as Cramer says of Ford.

Speaking of allegations of sexual assault keeping good people from getting high public office... it is entirely possible that had knowledge of this assault been known, Kavanaugh might not have made it to law school.

Good people show character from childhood. They do not have horrible lapses.