WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[wesmoorenerd]

One thing I like about this battle in WV, meaning senate, house, and local offices all together, is that it is a great experiment and unity opportunity for the democratic party, and a prime time and place to bring the Zaybays and Bagels and all the dems inbetween and to the left and right together to give the Republicans a hell of a fight in the state.

Zaybays and Bagels together? Truly a hive of scum and villainy. I'm switching parties until further notice.

[TarHeelDem]

I can't believe we're still talking about this race. Don't think it's as competitive as the conventional wisdom thinks (or would like) it to be.

[BBD]

https://twitter.com/alexi/status/1043153228060344322

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin at 81 cents on predictit rn.



Just proves how dumb and useless predictit is for using it to justify an election prediction. This is a tossup 50/50 race, with the knife's edge going to Manchin. Manchin at 52 cents is the appropriate price.

[TarHeelDem]

The reactions here when Manchin wins by double digits are going to be priceless.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The reactions here when Manchin wins by double digits are going to be priceless.

Manchin's ceiling is an 8 point win, so no. His floor is probably Obama 2008.

[Zaybay]

The reactions here when Manchin wins by double digits are going to be priceless.

Manchin's ceiling is an 8 point win, so no. His floor is probably Obama 2008.

I have no idea where you are getting your information Bagel, it just seems like your making it up as you go along. Manchin has already broken the "ceiling".

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The reactions here when Manchin wins by double digits are going to be priceless.

Manchin's ceiling is an 8 point win, so no. His floor is probably Obama 2008.

I have no idea where you are getting your information Bagel, it just seems like your making it up as you go along. Manchin has already broken the "ceiling".

While I agree Manchin would win by around 8-9 points today, if not more, I think it is more likely than not that his lead will evaporate to near nothing by election day due to the Trump effect and increased partisanship. And if he votes no on Kavanaugh, he will even forfeit a near nothing lead and instead have a substantial deficit.

[Virginiá]

While I agree Manchin would win by around 8-9 points today, if not more, I think it is more likely than not that his lead will evaporate to near nothing by election day due to the Trump effect and increased partisanship. And if he votes no on Kavanaugh, he will even forfeit a near nothing lead and instead have a substantial deficit.

You really give too much credit to Republicans.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

While I agree Manchin would win by around 8-9 points today, if not more, I think it is more likely than not that his lead will evaporate to near nothing by election day due to the Trump effect and increased partisanship. And if he votes no on Kavanaugh, he will even forfeit a near nothing lead and instead have a substantial deficit.

You really give too much credit to Republicans.

[Blair]

Manchin can’t shoot an Obamacare repeal bill and then vote for a Justice who would gut Obamacare

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin can’t shoot an Obamacare repeal bill and then vote for a Justice who would gut Obamacare

He can do whatever the hell he needs to survive. Just 6 weeks and 1 day left of him needing to lick Trump's feet, and then if he does that well enough to win again, he gets to be free.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey is within striking distance at high single digits, and it's probably going to tighten a lot in the remaining few weeks. Don't be surprised if we get some polls with Manchin barely ahead, tied, or even Morrisey up by a few points. Because that is very likely to occur.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

[Zaybay]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

For the love of god, stop.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

For the love of god, stop.

It's not Morrisey who will win this race, it's Trump.

[Rhenna]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

For the love of god, stop.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I wish I was 18 so I could get a predictit account and stock up on Morrisey shares. Would probably pay up to 60 cents a share for him at this point.

[ON Progressive]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

For the love of god, stop.

It's not Morrisey who will win this race, it's Trump.

Trump has visited WV 5,738,632 times already and it hasn’t moved the needle. Quit making a LimoLiberal impression with your absurd concern trolling.

[Torrain]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

For the love of god, stop.

It's not Morrisey who will win this race, it's Trump.

Trump could't shift races for first time candidates like Doug Jones or Conor Lamb, I doubt he can take down a popular senator with nearly universal name recognition in state.

Even if the rally does a couple of points of damage to Manchin, which seems unlikely, he'd still have a healthy lead to cushion him from being in a sheer tossup

I know you're set on predicting for Morrisey right now, so lets agree to disagree, and talk after the votes have been tallied.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

For the love of god, stop.

It's not Morrisey who will win this race, it's Trump.

Trump could't shift races for first time candidates like Doug Jones or Conor Lamb, I doubt he can take down a popular senator with nearly universal name recognition in state.

Even if the rally does a couple of points of damage to Manchin, which seems unlikely, he'd still have a healthy lead to cushion him from being in a sheer tossup

I know you're set on predicting for Morrisey right now, so lets agree to disagree, and talk after the votes have been tallied.

WV is waaaaay more popular for 45 than those places, and Morrisey is a stronger candidate than either Moore or Saccone, and after the votes have been tallied I'll either be too busy celebrating or crying in my attic for a while before I'll talk that much about it.

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/barack-obama-anthony-brown-pat-quinn-111885

IL-GOV: Tilt R -> Lean D
MD-GOV: Likely D -> Safe D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/barack-obama-anthony-brown-pat-quinn-111885

IL-GOV: Tilt R -> Lean D
MD-GOV: Likely D -> Safe D

Those were governor races which are less partisan so it's different.

[MT Treasurer]

West Virginia voters do not differentiate between federal and state elections, neither of which are very partisan in the state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

West Virginia voters do not differentiate between federal and state elections, neither of which are very partisan in the state.

If that was so, Tennant would have done much better in 2014, but she did not. She should have hit at least Obama 2008 levels if that was the case.