WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How do you not support somebody who rescues kittens?

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1024278504475488257

He is really climbing up to be my favorite congressman

[KingSweden]

How do you not support somebody who rescues kittens?

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1024278504475488257

That’s the same name as my Cat! And similar story, too, albeit we found ours in a bush by my in-laws’ house.

[IceSpear]

How do you not support somebody who rescues kittens?

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1024278504475488257

Ojeda has just earned the coveted IceSpear endorsement. I never saw it coming.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How do you not support somebody who rescues kittens?

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1024278504475488257

Ojeda has just earned the coveted IceSpear endorsement. I never saw it coming.

Hear hear!

[Zaybay]

How do you not support somebody who rescues kittens?

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1024278504475488257

Ojeda has just earned the coveted IceSpear endorsement. I never saw it coming.

Hear hear!

[swf541]

How do you not support somebody who rescues kittens?

https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress/status/1024278504475488257

Ojeda has just earned the coveted IceSpear endorsement. I never saw it coming.

Hear hear!

[Antonio the Sixth]

FF!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Someone really needs to share this meme with Ojeda

[Devout Centrist]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Safe R

[Zaybay]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Safe R

[IceSpear]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

[Politician]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

The anti-white hate group they've been members of their whole lives? Yeah, no.

[IceSpear]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

The anti-white hate group they've been members of their whole lives? Yeah, no.

Yes, that's why they hate Democrats so much. The betrayal they felt when they went from the #populist welfare for whites party to the anti-white hate group that had the gall to not only elect, but add insult to injury and RE-ELECT, a black guy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think if Ojeda does not run against Justice in 2020, another good person who could mount an effective challeneg against Justice in a GE is Sean Hornbuckle.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think if Ojeda does not run against Justice in 2020, another good person who could mount an effective challeneg against Justice in a GE is Sean Hornbuckle.

He’s a black, you see

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think if Ojeda does not run against Justice in 2020, another good person who could mount an effective challeneg against Justice in a GE is Sean Hornbuckle.

He’s a black, you see

Yes, I see,



But beinng black only really significant hurts your chances in some states, and I don't think WV is one of them. Sure they have some racists, but I don't think it's big enough to really tip the scales, as I don't put it in the same category and Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, etc. it's a bubba state for sure with plenty of conservatives and hicks, but they really just mostly care about the populist agenda and will really vote for whatever candidate best displays this. Hence Obama winning counties hat are near 100% white and went heavily for Trump. I don't think being black while running in WV is really that big of a detriment to said candidate.

[IceSpear]

But beinng black only really significant hurts your chances in some states, and I don't think WV is one of them.

The "populist" parts of WV swung heavily against Obama, despite him objectively being more "populist" than Kerry. The only reason the state overall had a small R swing in 2008 rather than a massive one was because of the DC elitists in the Eastern Panhandle.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I get that this is the washington examiner and a Republican anti-Manchin ad, but nonetheless for once this is some pretty potent stuff that isn't completely baseless and if your goal is to take down Manchin, I'd give this ad an A.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/hillary-clinton-haunts-joe-manchin-in-the-coalfields-of-west-virginia

Manchin has the upper hand, but Morrissey can make a comeback and win this thing. By using material like this which the GOP seems to be getting better at here, getting Trump to bombard this state towards the end which is definitely possible in the likely scenario that Morrissey can show he is within striking range from now till mid October to convince Trump that this would not be a waste of his time, and help make the final push up the hill, and what he is really lacking in right now: money. He needs to start working on that third piece, it will significantly improve his odds.

[Intell]

But beinng black only really significant hurts your chances in some states, and I don't think WV is one of them.

The "populist" parts of WV swung heavily against Obama, despite him objectively being more "populist" than Kerry. The only reason the state overall had a small R swing in 2008 rather than a massive one was because of the DC elitists in the Eastern Panhandle.

Like those hick areas that swung against Obama but voted for Harold Ford Jr and Douglas Wilder.

[mvd10]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

The anti-white hate group they've been members of their whole lives? Yeah, no.

Yes, that's why they hate Democrats so much. The betrayal they felt when they went from the #populist welfare for whites party to the anti-white hate group that had the gall to not only elect, but add insult to injury and RE-ELECT, a black guy.

The poorest ones (the ones actually relying on welfare) still voted for Obama twice though. But yeah, nominating an ambitious woman after a black guy definitely was the final straw.

[Antonio the Sixth]

oh ffs, take the self-righteous WV discourse out of this thread please

[mvd10]

oh ffs, take the self-righteous WV discourse out of this thread please

Triggering the Very Fine People on Both Sides is too much fun

[Antonio the Sixth]

oh ffs, take the self-righteous WV discourse out of this thread please

Triggering the Very Fine People on Both Sides is too much fun

I wasn't talking only (or even primarily) to you. You're not the poster who created an entire persona around self-righteous WV discourse.

[IceSpear]

oh ffs, take the self-righteous WV discourse out of this thread please

I was asked my opinion.

[IceSpear]

Anyway, on the topic of Ojeda, it makes no sense for him not to run for statewide office in 2020 if he won this year, since Republicans will just gerrymander him out after 2020 (assuming he wins that year as well) once WV loses a district.