WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Anyway, on the topic of Ojeda, it makes no sense for him not to run for statewide office in 2020 if he won this year, since Republicans will just gerrymander him out after 2020 (assuming he wins that year as well) once WV loses a district.

It's tough to gerrymander out someone who won election in a district that voted 77% for Trump.

[IceSpear]

Anyway, on the topic of Ojeda, it makes no sense for him not to run for statewide office in 2020 if he won this year, since Republicans will just gerrymander him out after 2020 (assuming he wins that year as well) once WV loses a district.

It's tough to gerrymander out someone who won election in a district that voted 77% for Trump.

You could just split his territory between McKinley's and Mooney's strongest areas. Sure, one could argue he could defy the odds again, but if that's the case, why not try defying the odds in a statewide race? You'd be facing an incumbent Republican either way, and at least statewide you'd have your entire former district able to support you.

[DINGO Joe]

Anyway, on the topic of Ojeda, it makes no sense for him not to run for statewide office in 2020 if he won this year, since Republicans will just gerrymander him out after 2020 (assuming he wins that year as well) once WV loses a district.

It's tough to gerrymander out someone who won election in a district that voted 77% for Trump.

You could just split his territory between McKinley's and Mooney's strongest areas. Sure, one could argue he could defy the odds again, but if that's the case, why not try defying the odds in a statewide race? You'd be facing an incumbent Republican either way, and at least statewide you'd have your entire former district able to support you.

Given how isolated Mooney's base is and how the population is distributed in the state, it would be difficult to do such a gerrymander.

[swf541]

tbh a Mooney vs Ojeda race would be fascinating to watch

[YE]

I'm not sure why people want Ojeda to run against an incumbent GOPer in a pro-incumbent state. He's better off staying in his seat, either retiring or going against Mooney, and then going for Manchin's seat in 2024.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Anyway, on the topic of Ojeda, it makes no sense for him not to run for statewide office in 2020 if he won this year, since Republicans will just gerrymander him out after 2020 (assuming he wins that year as well) once WV loses a district.

It's tough to gerrymander out someone who won election in a district that voted 77% for Trump.

You could just split his territory between McKinley's and Mooney's strongest areas. Sure, one could argue he could defy the odds again, but if that's the case, why not try defying the odds in a statewide race? You'd be facing an incumbent Republican either way, and at least statewide you'd have your entire former district able to support you.

Mooney is not a strong enough candidate to pull that off.

[Sestak]

I'm not sure why people want Ojeda to run against an incumbent GOPer in a pro-incumbent state. He's better off staying in his seat, either retiring or going against Mooney, and then going for Manchin's seat in 2024.

I mean, no one really seems to like Justice. He might even get primaried out.

[IceSpear]

I get that this is the washington examiner and a Republican anti-Manchin ad, but nonetheless for once this is some pretty potent stuff that isn't completely baseless and if your goal is to take down Manchin, I'd give this ad an A.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/hillary-clinton-haunts-joe-manchin-in-the-coalfields-of-west-virginia

Manchin has the upper hand, but Morrissey can make a comeback and win this thing. By using material like this which the GOP seems to be getting better at here, getting Trump to bombard this state towards the end which is definitely possible in the likely scenario that Morrissey can show he is within striking range from now till mid October to convince Trump that this would not be a waste of his time, and help make the final push up the hill, and what he is really lacking in right now: money. He needs to start working on that third piece, it will significantly improve his odds.

Remember in 2009-2010 when Republicans mocked Obama/Democrats for still talking about Bush so much? Yet look how much Republicans are talking about someone who was never even president.

But yeah, that was an extremely devastating ad. It's stuff like this which could really end up destroying Manchin and Ojeda.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I get that this is the washington examiner and a Republican anti-Manchin ad, but nonetheless for once this is some pretty potent stuff that isn't completely baseless and if your goal is to take down Manchin, I'd give this ad an A.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/hillary-clinton-haunts-joe-manchin-in-the-coalfields-of-west-virginia

Manchin has the upper hand, but Morrissey can make a comeback and win this thing. By using material like this which the GOP seems to be getting better at here, getting Trump to bombard this state towards the end which is definitely possible in the likely scenario that Morrissey can show he is within striking range from now till mid October to convince Trump that this would not be a waste of his time, and help make the final push up the hill, and what he is really lacking in right now: money. He needs to start working on that third piece, it will significantly improve his odds.

Well anyways thank you for the ad.  It has lifted by spirit, which was down today.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty good retaliatory ad from Manchin

https://www.google.com/amp/thehill.com/policy/healthcare/402366-manchin-hits-opponent-on-obamacare-lawsuit-with-new-ad%3famp

It seems like he has found a solid niche and is pounding Morrisey in over it.

Also Morrisey's response is lame.

[IceSpear]

I find it amusing that Joe f[inks]ing Manchin of all people seems to be running a more "liberal" campaign than Prada Socialist turned Blue Dog turned Dixiecrat Kyrsten Sinema. Or even Joe Donnelly, whose newest immigration ad is vomit worthy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I find it amusing that Joe f[inks]ing Manchin of all people seems to be running a more "liberal" campaign than Prada Socialist turned Blue Dog turned Dixiecrat Kyrsten Sinema. Or even Joe Donnelly, whose newest immigration ad is vomit worthy.

Hate to disappoint, but Manchin was first

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oYdAk2XEifA

[IceSpear]

I find it amusing that Joe f[inks]ing Manchin of all people seems to be running a more "liberal" campaign than Prada Socialist turned Blue Dog turned Dixiecrat Kyrsten Sinema. Or even Joe Donnelly, whose newest immigration ad is vomit worthy.

Hate to disappoint, but Manchin was first

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oYdAk2XEifA

Donnelly's was worse.

[MycroftCZ]

I find it amusing that Joe f[inks]ing Manchin of all people seems to be running a more "liberal" campaign than Prada Socialist turned Blue Dog turned Dixiecrat Kyrsten Sinema. Or even Joe Donnelly, whose newest immigration ad is vomit worthy.

Hate to disappoint, but Manchin was first

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oYdAk2XEifA

Donnelly's was worse.

The Donnelly ad is giving me flashbacks to the Mark Pryor "Vote for Me Because I can Hold a Bible" ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mucYcm6moe0

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yuck!

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/news/putnam_news/rep-jenkins-files-candidacy-for-w-va-supreme-court-opening/article_5cbbdfc4-48f1-5f60-97cc-b9324b944419.html

[Intell]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

[libertpaulian]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

[Intell]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

I never said banning guns and environmental overregulation...

[Zaybay]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

Your deflecting from the actual point the poster made. Manchin is one of the most conservative D senators in the D caucus, but the problem is that he doesnt need to hold many of his fiscally conservative views. WV is not a state that enjoys businesses and such, they are a union state. Just look at Ojeda, hes running on a rather progressive platform, especially on economic issues, and winning. Manchin and Ojeda are the best antithesis to the argument that you need conservatives in Atlas Blue states and that progressives can only win in cities. Being progressive on the right issues while matching your state, Ojeda is pro-coal but supports unionization and other leftwing policies, works, and you dont need to just be moderate or conservative to win.

I mean, look at Donelly, hes falling on his face running to the right. If he stuck up for progressive issues that impact IN, such as unionization and such, and was more conservative on social issues, he would probably have a better job winning.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

Your deflecting from the actual point the poster made. Manchin is one of the most conservative D senators in the D caucus, but the problem is that he doesnt need to hold many of his fiscally conservative views. WV is not a state that enjoys businesses and such, they are a union state. Just look at Ojeda, hes running on a rather progressive platform, especially on economic issues, and winning. Manchin and Ojeda are the best antithesis to the argument that you need conservatives in Atlas Blue states and that progressives can only win in cities. Being progressive on the right issues while matching your state, Ojeda is pro-coal but supports unionization and other leftwing policies, works, and you dont need to just be moderate or conservative to win.

I mean, look at Donelly, hes falling on his face running to the right. If he stuck up for progressive issues that impact IN, such as unionization and such, and was more conservative on social issues, he would probably have a better job winning.

Uh, while pathetic is some of his attempts, Donnelly is taking the best route possible, being within the moe in Indiana these days is impressive so he obviously knows what he is doing.

[Zaybay]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

Your deflecting from the actual point the poster made. Manchin is one of the most conservative D senators in the D caucus, but the problem is that he doesnt need to hold many of his fiscally conservative views. WV is not a state that enjoys businesses and such, they are a union state. Just look at Ojeda, hes running on a rather progressive platform, especially on economic issues, and winning. Manchin and Ojeda are the best antithesis to the argument that you need conservatives in Atlas Blue states and that progressives can only win in cities. Being progressive on the right issues while matching your state, Ojeda is pro-coal but supports unionization and other leftwing policies, works, and you dont need to just be moderate or conservative to win.

I mean, look at Donelly, hes falling on his face running to the right. If he stuck up for progressive issues that impact IN, such as unionization and such, and was more conservative on social issues, he would probably have a better job winning.

Uh, while pathetic is some of his attempts, Donnelly is taking the best route possible, being within the moe in Indiana these days is impressive so he obviously knows what he is doing.

I know, but you have to admit, it is pretty pathetic.

[libertpaulian]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

Your deflecting from the actual point the poster made. Manchin is one of the most conservative D senators in the D caucus, but the problem is that he doesnt need to hold many of his fiscally conservative views. WV is not a state that enjoys businesses and such, they are a union state. Just look at Ojeda, hes running on a rather progressive platform, especially on economic issues, and winning. Manchin and Ojeda are the best antithesis to the argument that you need conservatives in Atlas Blue states and that progressives can only win in cities. Being progressive on the right issues while matching your state, Ojeda is pro-coal but supports unionization and other leftwing policies, works, and you dont need to just be moderate or conservative to win.

I mean, look at Donelly, hes falling on his face running to the right. If he stuck up for progressive issues that impact IN, such as unionization and such, and was more conservative on social issues, he would probably have a better job winning.

Uh, while pathetic is some of his attempts, Donnelly is taking the best route possible, being within the moe in Indiana these days is impressive so he obviously knows what he is doing.

I know, but you have to admit, it is pretty pathetic.

Moderate Hero has been Donnelly's schtick since he got elected to Congress in 2006.  He's my Senator, so I'd know a thing or two.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The thing that pisses me about Manchin is that there is no fycking reason he needs to hold many of the right-wing economic policies he does. People there don't vote Republican to gut welfare for their meemaw, to give tax cuts to the rich or to support deregulation. These are why these idiotic blue dogs got extinct in the south.

Running on banning guns, environmental overregulation, etc. doesn't play well in the South either.

Your deflecting from the actual point the poster made. Manchin is one of the most conservative D senators in the D caucus, but the problem is that he doesnt need to hold many of his fiscally conservative views. WV is not a state that enjoys businesses and such, they are a union state. Just look at Ojeda, hes running on a rather progressive platform, especially on economic issues, and winning. Manchin and Ojeda are the best antithesis to the argument that you need conservatives in Atlas Blue states and that progressives can only win in cities. Being progressive on the right issues while matching your state, Ojeda is pro-coal but supports unionization and other leftwing policies, works, and you dont need to just be moderate or conservative to win.

I mean, look at Donelly, hes falling on his face running to the right. If he stuck up for progressive issues that impact IN, such as unionization and such, and was more conservative on social issues, he would probably have a better job winning.

Uh, while pathetic is some of his attempts, Donnelly is taking the best route possible, being within the moe in Indiana these days is impressive so he obviously knows what he is doing.

I know, but you have to admit, it is pretty pathetic.

Definitely, as the son of immigrants, it made me cringe so much. Same with the Manchin ad, I did not like them at all. Hopefully it pays off though.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/paulajean2018/status/1031017377868197888

Like seriously?

[tmthforu94]

Missed opportunity for the GOP. Could have been interesting if Blankenship or Jenkins had won the primary instead of the nightmarish candidacy of Patrick Morrissey.