TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

Yes, they are being unrealistically paranoid.  This is part of Vanderbilt's series of biannual political surveys of the state, in which they poll things like name recognition, favorability, and issue positions.  These surveys typically don't include polling of specific races.  Vanderbilt sometimes does horse-race polling as separate individual polls, not as part of these surveys.

[Young Conservative]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

Yes, they are being unrealistically paranoid.  This is part of Vanderbilt's series of biannual political surveys of the state, in which they poll things like name recognition, favorability, and issue positions.  These surveys typically don't include polling of specific races.  Vanderbilt sometimes does horse-race polling as separate individual polls, not as part of these surveys.

Paranoia implies fear. I am not afraid of losing this race. Just mildly annoyed.

[KingSweden]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

Yes, they are being unrealistically paranoid.  This is part of Vanderbilt's series of biannual political surveys of the state, in which they poll things like name recognition, favorability, and issue positions.  These surveys typically don't include polling of specific races.  Vanderbilt sometimes does horse-race polling as separate individual polls, not as part of these surveys.

Paranoia implies fear. I am not afraid of losing this race. Just mildly annoyed.

Annoyed... that Corker retired and Haslam passed?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

Yes, they are being unrealistically paranoid.  This is part of Vanderbilt's series of biannual political surveys of the state, in which they poll things like name recognition, favorability, and issue positions.  These surveys typically don't include polling of specific races.  Vanderbilt sometimes does horse-race polling as separate individual polls, not as part of these surveys.

Paranoia implies fear. I am not afraid of losing this race. Just mildly annoyed.

Substitute "suspicious" for paranoid, then.  Your statement implied that the results were being deliberately withheld, when there is no basis for assuming such behavior.  Not polling the Senate race in this survey is entirely consistent with Vanderbilt's past practices, and this is something anyone could verify with a few minutes of Google searches.

[Politician]

This race is still a Tossup. However, Bredesen maintains a small edge as of now.

I don't get the Ted Strickland comparisons. The assumption is that Strickland got blown-out because he was a former governor? No, it was because his campaign was a joke. Bredesen can easily win if he doesn't make the same mistake.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

To add to MassGuy’s analysis, wasn’t Strickland also defeated in his gubernatorial reelection campaign?

Can we stop with these stupid ass comparisons? Bayh and Bredesen, Strickland and Bredesen, Ossoff and Lamb, Tiprineni and Ossoff.

[YE]

To add to MassGuy’s analysis, wasn’t Strickland also defeated in his gubernatorial reelection campaign?

Yes, but barely and he ran a strongish campaign in 2010 AFAIK.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

To add to MassGuy’s analysis, wasn’t Strickland also defeated in his gubernatorial reelection campaign?

Yes, but barely and he ran a strongish campaign in 2010 AFAIK.

But just goes to show that he wasn’t a strong candidate.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Tossup, but I'm tempted to move it from Tilt R to Tilt D (as I did with Missouri). I don't want to jinx it but Bredesen has been polling really well recently.

[Kodak]

This race is still a Tossup. However, Bredesen maintains a small edge as of now.

I don't get the Ted Strickland comparisons. The assumption is that Strickland got blown-out because he was a former governor? No, it was because his campaign was a joke. Bredesen can easily win if he doesn't make the same mistake.

For the record, I wanted comparable numbers to prove Bredesen is different. Sure enough, Strickland was at -6% approval in May of 2016.

[UWS]

This race is still a Tossup. However, Bredesen maintains a small edge as of now.

I don't get the Ted Strickland comparisons. The assumption is that Strickland got blown-out because he was a former governor? No, it was because his campaign was a joke. Bredesen can easily win if he doesn't make the same mistake.

For the record, I wanted comparable numbers to prove Bredesen is different. Sure enough, Strickland was at -6% approval in May of 2016.

I know we are not in July yet, but in July 2016, Evan Bayh was leading in Indiana by 21 percentage points so if Bredesen is leading by 3 percentage points now Blackburn has a quite decent chance to defeat Bredesen in November.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2016#Polling_2

[UncleSam]

This race is still a Tossup. However, Bredesen maintains a small edge as of now.

I don't get the Ted Strickland comparisons. The assumption is that Strickland got blown-out because he was a former governor? No, it was because his campaign was a joke. Bredesen can easily win if he doesn't make the same mistake.

For the record, I wanted comparable numbers to prove Bredesen is different. Sure enough, Strickland was at -6% approval in May of 2016.

I know we are not in July yet, but in July 2016, Evan Bayh was leading in Indiana by 20 percentage points so if Bredesen is leading by 3 percentage points now Blackburn has a quite decent chance to defeat Bredesen in November.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2016#Polling_2

Bear in mind that this was before Bayh’s forgetting his address in IN lol

Bredesen probably won’t be in the same boat, and doesn’t have obvious or traditional lines of attack against him.

[Virginiá]

Bear in mind that this was before Bayh’s forgetting his address in IN lol

Bredesen probably won’t be in the same boat, and doesn’t have obvious or traditional lines of attack against him.

Obviously it's Tennessee, so it will be difficult to win no matter what (imo), but the Bayh comparisons are not valid. That guy's run was a disaster. As I said on AAD month(s) ago, Bayh's post-Senate career was like a playbook on what not to do if you ever wanted to run for office again. There must have been like 5 or 6 reports about him over the course of the campaign that made him look like a DC parasite (probably not that inaccurate either).

Bayh seemed like a good pick at first, but then after several damaging news reports and the residency issue, it became clear he was terrible. Bredesen doesn't have any of that kind of baggage I don't think, and he seems to be very popular still.

[Blair]

I do expect Bredesen to get the same sort of treatment as Bayh (aka millions of dollars of attack ads) because the obvious route is to make him toxic to republican/independent groups.

The thing people keep forgetting about Strickland's 2016 campaign is that Rob Portman ran a superb campaign. Not only did he raise an absolute ton, have an amazing field game but he created himself as just an average suburban guy who happens to be a republican. (Despite being rather conservative) There's a reason why Portman outrun Trump.

If Bill Haslam, or even Bob Corker was running for this Seat we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

[UWS]

I do expect Bredesen to get the same sort of treatment as Bayh (aka millions of dollars of attack ads) because the obvious route is to make him toxic to republican/independent groups.

The thing people keep forgetting about Strickland's 2016 campaign is that Rob Portman ran a superb campaign. Not only did he raise an absolute ton, have an amazing field game but he created himself as just an average suburban guy who happens to be a republican. (Despite being rather conservative) There's a reason why Portman outrun Trump.

If Bill Haslam, or even Bob Corker was running for this Seat we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

It was also because Strickland had a poor record when it comes to the economy when he was Governor. Under his governorship, Ohio lost 350 000 jobs and was ranked 48th among the 50 states in terms of job creation. In addition, Strickland voted twice in favor of granting China its most-favored-nation status.

[Oryxslayer]

I do expect Bredesen to get the same sort of treatment as Bayh (aka millions of dollars of attack ads) because the obvious route is to make him toxic to republican/independent groups.

The thing people keep forgetting about Strickland's 2016 campaign is that Rob Portman ran a superb campaign. Not only did he raise an absolute ton, have an amazing field game but he created himself as just an average suburban guy who happens to be a republican. (Despite being rather conservative) There's a reason why Portman outrun Trump.

If Bill Haslam, or even Bob Corker was running for this Seat we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

It was also because Strickland had a poor record when it comes to the economy when he was Governor. Under his governorship, Ohio lost 350 000 jobs and was ranked 48th among the 50 states in terms of job creation. In addition, Strickland voted twice in favor of granting China its most-favored-nation status.

Yep. A bunch of unions endorsed Portman in 2016 - basically killing Stricklands hopes of ever winning. They didn't give those endorsements out of pity - they looked at the two records and decided to break with the Dems.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Bredesen Ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Lvm_Gga7mM

[BuckeyeNut]

I do expect Bredesen to get the same sort of treatment as Bayh (aka millions of dollars of attack ads) because the obvious route is to make him toxic to republican/independent groups.

The thing people keep forgetting about Strickland's 2016 campaign is that Rob Portman ran a superb campaign. Not only did he raise an absolute ton, have an amazing field game but he created himself as just an average suburban guy who happens to be a republican. (Despite being rather conservative) There's a reason why Portman outrun Trump.

If Bill Haslam, or even Bob Corker was running for this Seat we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

It was also because Strickland had a poor record when it comes to the economy when he was Governor. Under his governorship, Ohio lost 350 000 jobs and was ranked 48th among the 50 states in terms of job creation. In addition, Strickland voted twice in favor of granting China its most-favored-nation status.

Yep. A bunch of unions endorsed Portman in 2016 - basically killing Stricklands hopes of ever winning. They didn't give those endorsements out of pity - they looked at the two records and decided to break with the Dems.

Yeah, no. Portman had all of 4 union endorsements.

1: The United Mine Workers
2: The International Union of Operatinf Engineers
3: The Fraternal Order of Police
4: The International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Of those 4 groups, the first 3 are all normally conservative groups, and shouldn’t really come as a surprise. UMW was somewhat surprising, given Ted’s record in Congress and Governor, but they endorsed late meaning 1: it had already become clear Ted would lose and 2: Clinton had already made her massively idiotic coal statement which hurt Democrats everywhere. Teamsters’ decision probably had to do with Ted’s historic unpopularity in Northeast Ohio as much as it did with anything.

UWS and anyone who thinks pro-protectonist unions — which none of those 4 unions really are — endorsed Portman over Strickland over two-votes on trade authority is a moron when rob Portman was George W. Bush’s goddamn U.S. Trade Representative. (Something he very keely did not emphasize.)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump going to Nashville for a rally. Who wants to bet that several undisclosed GOP internals have Marsha down?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Drumpf going to Nashville for a rally. Who wants to bet that several undisclosed GOP internals have Marsha down?

It's the only thing that makes sense. Because why Nashville, of all places, otherwise? I wonder what Bredesen's derogatory nickname is going to be. Baloney Bredesen? Boring Bredesen? Bland Bredesen?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Drumpf going to Nashville for a rally. Who wants to bet that several undisclosed GOP internals have Marsha down?

It's the only thing that makes sense. Because why Nashville, of all places, otherwise? I wonder what Bredesen's derogatory nickname is going to be. Baloney Bredesen? Boring Bredesen? Bland Bredesen?

Stale Bredesen, see what I did there

[Progressive Pessimist]

Drumpf going to Nashville for a rally. Who wants to bet that several undisclosed GOP internals have Marsha down?

It's the only thing that makes sense. Because why Nashville, of all places, otherwise? I wonder what Bredesen's derogatory nickname is going to be. Baloney Bredesen? Boring Bredesen? Bland Bredesen?

Stale Bredesen, see what I did there

Kudos to you for that. That was too clever for me to come up with and waaaaay too clever for Trump to come up with.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Trump's big attack on Bredesen was "I never heard of the guy".

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I was betting on Phony Phil