Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1035544542064402434

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Trump's approval amongst AAs in the ABC poll is 3%. That is impressive.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1035544542064402434

Yep, I think the nation has hit Russia fatigue at this point. We're gonna need another Healthcare circus in Congress or a well-timed recession (preferably before Dems control any part of Congress) to sink him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone interested in polling should read this entire (longish) thread:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1035590339803983874

[KingSweden]

Everyone interested in polling should read this entire (longish) thread:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1035590339803983874

Good stuff.

[ProudModerate2]

Trump at 36-60 approval in new Washington Post/ABC News poll

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WaPo seems to have been one of the harder polls from Trump this year.

Indeed. Could be a leading indicator of what to expect in other polls, though.

[Person Man]

Everyone interested in polling should read this entire (longish) thread:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1035590339803983874

Good stuff.

He definitely learned his lesson. The pollsters, or at least those B and above, know what they are talking about. Even 2016, they were right. It's just there were 10% undecideds and 18% didn't like anyone. They just broke 2 to 1 against the lazier campaign and 45 + 3 is 48 and 40+6 is 46. The election day break won Trump surprise wins in Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin,  and Pennsylvania.

[IceSpear]

Another state that's not very interesting in terms of Trump approval:

West Virginia: WV Metro News, Aug. 16-26, 404 likely voters

Approve 60
Disapprove 33

Note: Manchin is +8 in this poll.

Atlas: "Only Likely R in 2020 because of muh ancestral DINOs"

[Orser67]

I definitely think that this ABC/Washington Post poll is a bit of an outlier, but a 53% strong disapproval among American adults has to be one of the worst numbers ever posted by a president.

[The Mikado]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

And with much higher strong disapproval numbers than Obama's.

[Inmate Trump]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

And with much higher strong disapproval numbers than Obama's.

Were the house races in 2010 the same ones up for election/reelection in 2018?  Don't they generally favor Republicans anyway?  I'm a moron and I'm lazy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

And with much higher strong disapproval numbers than Obama's.

Were the house races in 2010 the same ones up for election/reelection in 2018?  Don't they generally favor Republicans anyway?  I'm a moron and I'm lazy.

I don't quite understand the question.  All 435 House races are up every two years.  Were you thinking of Senate races?  Those are six-year terms, so the 2010 class was up again in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

[Inmate Trump]

I don't think Trump's approvals will change more than 2-3 points in either direction until at least the midterms. That might shake things up a bit.

TBH, Trump right now is about two points below where Obama's approvals were when Obama managed to lose like 60 House seats in 2010. Just worth keeping in mind.

And with much higher strong disapproval numbers than Obama's.

Were the house races in 2010 the same ones up for election/reelection in 2018?  Don't they generally favor Republicans anyway?  I'm a moron and I'm lazy.

I don't quite understand the question.  All 435 House races are up every two years.  Were you thinking of Senate races?  Those are six-year terms, so the 2010 class was up again in 2016.

Yea, I was thinking Senate.  Whoops!  Really revealed my stupidity there.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A few other notes from the ABC/WP poll:

- This is Trump's worst showing to date in this poll (previously he's been at -22 a few times)

- 49% say Congress should start impeachment proceedings, 46% say no

- 63% support Mueller probe (52% strongly support), 29% oppose

I'm impressed that nearly half of all Americans already support impeachment -and this is before Mueller (or rather Rosenstein) has released his final report to Congress.  

If Mueller finds evidence of conspiracy and money laundering, and Trump's clear involvement in those crimes, imagine where the numbers will be then... 

That won't translate enough to the necessary Republican votes for conviction in the Senate though. So really, it doesn't matter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After the two terrible polls for Trump today, the 538 average is now at 40.3/54.4 (-14.1).  The disapproval number and margin are the highest since Feb. 28.

[Inmate Trump]

A few other notes from the ABC/WP poll:

- This is Trump's worst showing to date in this poll (previously he's been at -22 a few times)

- 49% say Congress should start impeachment proceedings, 46% say no

- 63% support Mueller probe (52% strongly support), 29% oppose

I'm impressed that nearly half of all Americans already support impeachment -and this is before Mueller (or rather Rosenstein) has released his final report to Congress.  

If Mueller finds evidence of conspiracy and money laundering, and Trump's clear involvement in those crimes, imagine where the numbers will be then... 

That won't translate enough to the necessary Republican votes for conviction in the Senate though. So really, it doesn't matter.

Exactly.

Impeachment isn't a goal anyone should be working toward unless and until Republicans come on board.  He's obviously a destructive president who shouldn't be in the position he's in (give me Mike Pence over Trump any day), but there's really nothing that can be done until the GOP step up, even just a little.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

So it appears the Cohen-Manafort fiasco is tearing up Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)

That's the only two mentioned in the poll. They didn't attach a link to their full study.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

So it appears the Cohen-Manafort fiasco is tearing up Trump.

I think so too, and how petty he looked regarding McCain's death may be adding to it.

It's worth noting that these two bad results for Trump were from pollsters rated A+ (WaPo/ABC) and A- (IBD/TIPP) by 538.

[pbrower2a]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Devastating, as this is a media outlet for people surely leaning to the Right. This is corroboration.

At this point, should nothing really change between  now and November 2020, President Trump should end up with less than 45% of the popular vote. No presidential nominee has lost by such a margin in a binary election since Mondale lost to Reagan. (I am not counting the two elections involving Bill Clinton, as those involved a strong independent nominee).

IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)

That's the only two mentioned in the poll. They didn't attach a link to their full study.

(link here)

https://www.investors.com/politics/trumps-approval-midterm-elections-ibd-tipp-poll/

...Take a look at the voting map by counties in the last three Presidential elections, and you will notice huge swaths of counties with deep blue coloration.  The exceptions are places with large African-American, Hispanic, or First Peoples populations and such an oddity as New England. Republicans win the farm-and-ranch vote. At this level of approval, they will nearly break even in rural America. Republicans need 60% of the rural vote to offset majorities of 55% or so for Democrats in urban areas even in such states as South Dakota and Alabama.

Farmers and ranchers are usually easy wins for Republicans because they are the easiest people  for federal, state, and local taxing authorities to treat them as cash cows. But cut their commodity prices, and no tax cut can offset such a loss. The trade war can cut their revenue, and tariffs will make farming costs rise.

Don't ridicule farmers and ranchers as hicks living in the past. They are connected to the rest of the world, and that includes the consumer economy. They are often well educated.

...on Suburbia -- suburban America is becoming legitimately urban. Suburbia used to have some rural character with single-family houses with real lawns and with crowded highways leading only to and from the jobs in the city centers. Infrastructure costs were low when the roads, sewers, and schools were new. That is over. As apartment blocks replace bungalows from the post-WWII suburban boom, once-lightly-traveled suburban streets must be expanded at considerable cost. Seventy-year-old school buildings once the pride of Suburbia are often rotting edifices in need of replacement. Sewers and water lines have approached the end of their useful lives. Suburbia once had low maintenance costs and low taxes. That is over. The older suburbs are legitimately urban.   

....the conviction by a jury of Paul Manafort, the plea bargain by Michael Cohen, and the petty treatment of the late Senator John McCain may be kicking in. The trade wars may be hurtful to America, but that has yet to set in. Such things are not forgotten.     

 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Devastating, as this is a media outlet for people surely leaning to the Right. This is corroboration.

At this point, should nothing really change between  now and November 2020, President Trump should end up with less than 45% of the popular vote. No presidential nominee has lost by such a margin in a binary election since Mondale lost to Reagan. (I am not counting the two elections involving Bill Clinton, as those involved a strong independent nominee).

IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)

That's the only two mentioned in the poll. They didn't attach a link to their full study.

(link here)

https://www.investors.com/politics/trumps-approval-midterm-elections-ibd-tipp-poll/

...Take a look at the voting map by counties in the last three Presidential elections, and you will notice huge swaths of counties with deep blue coloration.  The exceptions are places with large African-American, Hispanic, or First Peoples populations and such an oddity as New England. Republicans win the farm-and-ranch vote. At this level of approval, they will nearly break even in rural America. Republicans need 60% of the rural vote to offset majorities of 55% or so for Democrats in urban areas even in such states as South Dakota and Alabama.

Farmers and ranchers are usually easy wins for Republicans because they are the easiest people  for federal, state, and local taxing authorities to treat them as cash cows. But cut their commodity prices, and no tax cut can offset such a loss. The trade war can cut their revenue, and tariffs will make farming costs rise.

Don't ridicule farmers and ranchers as hicks living in the past. They are connected to the rest of the world, and that includes the consumer economy. They are often well educated.

...on Suburbia -- suburban America is becoming legitimately urban. Suburbia used to have some rural character with single-family houses with real lawns and with crowded highways leading only to and from the jobs in the city centers. Infrastructure costs were low when the roads, sewers, and schools were new. That is over. As apartment blocks replace bungalows from the post-WWII suburban boom, once-lightly-traveled suburban streets must be expanded at considerable cost. Seventy-year-old school buildings once the pride of Suburbia are often rotting edifices in need of replacement. Sewers and water lines have approached the end of their useful lives. Suburbia once had low maintenance costs and low taxes. That is over. The older suburbs are legitimately urban.   

....the conviction by a jury of Paul Manafort, the plea bargain by Michael Cohen, and the petty treatment of the late Senator John McCain may be kicking in. The trade wars may be hurtful to America, but that has yet to set in. Such things are not forgotten.     

 

When I mean "full study" I mean the sheets of data that tell us everything like vote by age group, religion, ethnicity, etc. This was just a basic summary of their findings and they omitted a lot of what I would've like to see.

[Ebsy]

Trump at 38/54 in the August 29-30 YouGov as well. Worst numbers in quite some time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump at 38/54 in the August 29-30 YouGov as well. Worst numbers in quite some time.

That's another interesting data point in line with the trend, but it's worth keeping in mind that those one-day 1000 adult YouGov snapshots tend to be really noisy.  Their weekly(ish) 1500 adult surveys aren't so bouncy.