Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

...or, as I see it, the futility of any effort to re-elect Donald Trump, which is my interpretation. I try to read beyond the raw numbers of approval and disapproval to examine demographic shifts. It is hard to predict what will stick and what will not. Myth-building (attempting to treat the late Senator and POW John S. McCain as a political hero for being a maverick) will not likely stick. I doubt that his family wants his image and record to be used for any partisan agenda, especially a Democratic agenda. The conviction of Paul S. Manafort, disgraced lobbyist convicted so far of legal technicalities?  Watch the next trial. Michael Cohen, former (and likely disbarred) personal attorney of the President? That is more likely to hurt the President because the plea bargains are about things that the President did. As little as most American understand law, they can understand that although an attorney has the duty to defend even the guiltiest defendant an attorney has no legal right to become complicit in any crime. The rightful duty of an attorney who has a criminal client is to tell that client to stop committing crimes or to avoid doing shady deeds that can make one subject to a civil suit or more likely to lose one or face severer consequences in which one is at risk.

The political tragedy of Richard Nixon is that someone generally deemed competent was responsible for severe misconduct in the name of his campaign, and this relates to the collapse of support of Donald Trump among people over 65 in some nationwide polls. these people remember the dirty-tricks campaign that included the Watergate break-in... and that this was the difference between a successful Presidency and an ethical disaster. (The Watergate break-in was a pointless crime; the break-in at the office of the psychiatrist for Daniel Ellsberg was far worse as a violation of medical ethics that require confidentiality in the communications between physician and client). But Nixon at the least was not personally connected to any semblance of economic corruption.

At this point -- Trump is already worse than, if different from, Richard Nixon. By 1972 Nixon had legitimate achievements in foreign policy from which we now derive lasting benefit. Trump has a shaky deal with the tyrannical ruler of North Korea that has no means of enforcement, and that is it. Donald Trump is Richard Nixon's political vendettas (just look at his communications on his Twitter feeds) along with apparent corruption. There is no reason to believe that Americans who recognize such in President Trump accept this.

This is not a liberal-conservative divide. People who were conservatives before Donald Trump are still conservatives on the whole even if they may have become more liberal on gay rights (I have told people  who are right-wing on economics or religion that disdain for LGBT people fosters criminal attacks on anyone who can be perceived as homosexual, and that the usual conservative concern for law and order is incompatible with homophobia) or the right of practically anyone, no matter how addled, to have a firearm (sport hunters have nothing but contempt for armed robbers, let alone mass shooters). Liberal disdain for President Trump has been present since the 2016 election, as Trump had done nothing to assuage liberal concerns. Conservative disdain for Donald Trump is new and growing on concerns upon the ethical misconduct of the Trump regime -- excuse me, Administration.

Liberals are not a majority in America -- and they are even fewer than the vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016. The core conservative vote and the core liberal vote are each about 40%, which reflects  close to the low end for the vote for electoral losers in Presidential elections in the last century. Demographics suggest a rising advantage for Democrats in the next few elections, but the demographic advantage for Democrats includes people (parts of ethnic and religious minorities whom one could expect to have some common interest with conservatives on economics and family life).

Donald Trump is not killing the basis for conservative thought and interests. The people who want America to be a pure plutocracy in which all people other than the rich are responsible to the elites of ownership and management who have few responsibilities to the common man. People who want to push their reactionary religious agenda upon America (abortion ban, young earth creationism, 'providential' agenda for establishing that American history is based on fundamentalist interpretations of Christian theology, 'gun rights', anti-feminism, overall contempt for education and artistic expression) are in no way broken. Their vehicle, Donald Trump, is a wreck, a jalopy recently bought at a tote-the-note lot for more than it is worth and that costs more to maintain than the lease on a newer car that has no such problem.  

Donald Trump is not 'reliable transportation'.

[pbrower2a]

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

I doubt it. Every Republican running for a political office will have Donald Trump as an albatross.

I see only one analogy in recent history for Trump in losing popular support  and that is Richard Nixon... and that analogue is flawed because

(1) Nixon didn't start to go bad until the 1972 campaign when the 'dirty tricks' began
(2) Nixon had a higher perch from which to fall (the recent blowout win over McGovern in 1972)
(3) Nixon had legitimate achievements, especially in foreign policy
(4) Nixon was not accused of using the Presidency for his personal gain, and
(5) at the same stage, the Vice-President had not committed deeds that would lead to his resignation (bribery and tax evasion).   

(5) had originated when Spiro Agnew was Governor, and he was collecting bribes while Vice-President of the United States. So far we have nothing on Mike Pence. That difference vanishes should the Mueller investigation find complicity by Mike Pence in criminal misdeeds related to the President or his staff. 

Trump has been unambiguously and pervasively rotten from the start. That perception is not going away. The only change in perception has been when people recognize that such is so. The Republican Party and its economic agenda do not bounce back until Donald Trump is off the scene.

Practically no elected Republican  has a political career that started with the aid of Donald Trump.  He is taking down Republicans around from before he was elected. He has already thrown away the most unlikely Senate seat possible by opening a Senate seat in Alabama -- which a Democrat won in a special election! He is putting at risk the Senate seat of someone who ran against him in the Republican primaries, Ted Cruz, R-TX... and anyone who thought that beyond question that the last Democratic Senator from Texas for at least thirty years would be Bill Krueger (the Senator appointed to replace Lloyd Bentsen when he took a cabinet position as Secretary of the Treasury) might have a surprise this year.

It might be a surprise. The Cruz/O'Rourke race is effectively a toss-up.
   

[ProudModerate2]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/11/politics/trump-approval-rating-dropped/index.html

[Kodak]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

Trump is likely going to bounce back... from 38% approval to 43% approval.

[pbrower2a]

I do not predict any changes in polling results and I cannot even claim that these  will stick. I see no cause for any rebound other than that 'rebounds happen'. Dead cat bounce?

This Presidency has only one thing going for it -- that the economy is in good shape.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: Suffolk, Sep. 5-10, 500 likely voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Party registration in this poll is D 39, R 36, I 20, "something else" 2.  How closely does that match up with the actual registration numbers?

[BudgieForce]

Nevada: Suffolk, Sep. 5-10, 500 likely voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Party registration in this poll is D 39, R 36, I 20, "something else" 2.  How closely does that match up with the actual registration numbers?

CNN's exit poll of Nevada has party I.D at: D 36, R 28, I 36.

I'm not sure how accurate that is though.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/nevada

[BudgieForce]

Nevada: Suffolk, Sep. 5-10, 500 likely voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Party registration in this poll is D 39, R 36, I 20, "something else" 2.  How closely does that match up with the actual registration numbers?

And according to this:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5760

Party I.d is: D 39, R 33, I 22(or 26% if you combine Independent American and Non-Partisan)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

Yep, the amount of celebrating this far out is hilarious. 2010 would have been seen as Obama being a one-termer with the Obamacare backlash and the Tea Party coming to the fore, but we all know what happened. Same with 1994. Geez, it's like people are forgetting the unique circumstances that sunk Carter and HW.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: Suffolk, Sep. 5-10, 500 likely voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Party registration in this poll is D 39, R 36, I 20, "something else" 2.  How closely does that match up with the actual registration numbers?

And according to this:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5760

Party I.d is: D 39, R 33, I 22(or 26% if you combine Independent American and Non-Partisan)

Thanks!  The poll listed "Independent/Non-Partisan" so I think that response is the combination you suggest.

[junior chįmp]

Yeah, that's largely a reflection of counterculture youth replacing Silents as the elderly bracket.

That alone wouldnt explain it though. The counterculture and hippies were a very small minority in the Boomer generation. If you go back and look at the polling...you'll find that young Boomers were far more in favor of the Vietnam war then their uber liberal GI elders:



The Boomers are by and large a Conservative generation. If anything they are the silent majority Nixon described who are drowned out by a small loud minority (counterculture)

[Yank2133]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

This would mean something if Trump could get over 45%. That has been the President's problem since the spring of 2017. His numbers dip to the thirties and then "recover" to the low 40's.

I have said it before, but people really overrated Trump's "strength". His ceiling is capped because he has done nothing but alienated everyone besides his base.

[IceSpear]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

Don't worry, I'm sure we'll get at least two or three more cycles of polling ups and downs before the election, with the predictable "DEMS ARE DOOMED!" followed by "OMG, WE'RE GONNA WIN TEXAS!"

[twenty42]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

This would mean something if Trump could get over 45%. That has been the President's problem since the spring of 2017. His numbers dip to the thirties and then "recover" to the low 40's.

I have said it before, but people really overrated Trump's "strength". His ceiling is capped because he has done nothing but alienated everyone besides his base.

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Sep. 4-10, 2280 adults

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

This would mean something if Trump could get over 45%. That has been the President's problem since the spring of 2017. His numbers dip to the thirties and then "recover" to the low 40's.

I have said it before, but people really overrated Trump's "strength". His ceiling is capped because he has done nothing but alienated everyone besides his base.

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

One approving of Trump's agenda does not mean one is going to vote. Especially his base of low income, non college educated white people who already have horrendous turnout in midterms.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Greetings subjects,


There is a legitimate concern on both sides about the 2016 election. Trump was unable to win a plurality in the popular vote, and there are many suspicious that Russia may have tilted the election to Trump's favor. On the other hand, Hillary failed to win the electoral college. As a pragmatist, my proposed solution is that Trump should be President for 12 hours a day, from 12 AM - 12 PM (he seems to be up at 4 AM a lot anyways), while Hillary is President for the remaining 12 hours a day, from 12 PM - 12 AM (this could be an issue, as Hillary is a stereotypical grandma, and we know how early they go to be).


Your pleasure,

Holy Unifying Centrist

[IceSpear]

Trump is at 52-39 in Arkansas. Not great considering he won it 61-34.

https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/hutchinson-has-commanding-lead-trump-job-approval-at-52/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 6-9, 1988 registered voters

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+6)

Strongly approve 20 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+5)

GCB: D 45 (+3), R 35 (-5)

(Note: last week's poll was viewed as a likely outlier at the time.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/Marist, Sep. 5-9, 949 adults including 777 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

The change in RV but not adults is interesting.

GCB (RV only): D 50 (+3), R 38 (-2)

[Brittain33]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 6-9, 1988 registered voters

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+6)

Seems like the Wollman rink bump is fading and we're starting to see some chill from the Marla Maples story.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 6-9, 1988 registered voters

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+6)

Seems like the Wollman rink bump is fading and we're starting to see some chill from the Marla Maples story.

LOL

[pbrower2a]

"The Q" has a national poll again.

Americans back Democrats 52-38 for Congress in November.. even men back this.

Congressional approval: 18 approve, 72 disapprove.

Congress to be more of a check on the President (58), is it adequate (27), or to be less of a check (4)? Don't know -- 11

The news media:

Part of democracy 69
ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE 21
Neither 5
Don't know/no response 6

NOTE: If you wonder why I put that one phrase in screaming, dark-red, bolded all-capitals text, then please read on.  

Serial mass-murderer and tyrant Josef Stalin  used the phrase ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE as a description of his opponents and rivals to be eliminated. There must be something wrong with civics education that fails to tell Americans how that phrase came into existence and what purpose it served. That 21% of the American people can accept the President using such a phrase against those who rebuke his incompetence and dishonesty suggests that about 21% of Americans are vulnerable to a totalitarian ideology of the Right.

Anybody with a left-wing tendency might want to consider whether they would accept the phrase against a demagogue who tells them what they want to hear. At least 21% of the American public has shown with this answer that they would be comfortable with a totalitarian dictatorship so long as it spares them of having to see its dirty work.

I do not know whether President Trump knows the source of ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE, but I certainly do.

This phrase is to be distinguished from "Public Enemy" as used against such criminals as Dillinger, the Barrow-Parker gang, "Pretty Boy Floyd", and the like. Those people themselves were murderous marauders .

I am disgusted that fully 21% of Americans would be amenable to a right-wing dictator so long as the really-nasty stuff was done away from their  more attention in K-12 education  so that people find terms like "enemy of the people", "ten years without right of correspondence," (a usual euphemism for a death sentence in Stalin's Soviet Union, or "liquidation of *name the group of pariahs of the day). Those comprise but three monstrous uses of language, and those were in Stalin's nightmarish Soviet Union.

People need to learn the danger of a government that turns words into lies in their own right.     

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov decides to be the odd one out this week: Sep. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1220 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-1), R 41 (+1)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov decides to be the odd one out this week: Sep. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1220 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-1), R 41 (+1)

How is YouGov still in business?