GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Adam Griffin]

The reason I personally am hesitant to make that comparison is because Carter's performance in those areas was simply unattainable. Perhaps it was due to the Carter name, but regardless, there was never a chance that Abrams would be able to keep Kemp under 70% in most of Southwest Georgia like Carter did. One comparison that might be more interesting, although also outdated, would be 2012 President -> 2018 Governor.

But SW GA is like...nothing. Take everything west of I-75 and south of the Fall Line and you're talking about 6% of population (probably more like 5% of voters). Even when considering 2014/18 performance, Abrams didn't implode that badly there among white voters (the only apt comparison, given black population there was & is evaporating; can't win what doesn't exist): it was basically everywhere else in rural GA where she truly bombed in raw votes (SE GA, North GA, etc). Those places weren't inherently "loyal" to Carter because of his name in the way that a place like SW GA would've been.

Obviously her holding all of Carter's performance in these places wasn't possible - it's an illustration of how these places can still rat-f[inks]k Democrats despite so many in the party saying for the past 15 years that we've finally reached the bottom after every single election. It was a three-pronged set of losses with regard to her candidacy (in comparison to Carter's) in rural areas: one because of trends (unavoidable), one because she was a black woman (unavoidable in her personal circumstance, but not unavoidable for Democrats in general) and one because she went out of her way to talk about guns, Confederate monuments and other cultural claptrap that didn't motivate a single person to show up for her, but surely turned some likely voters against her (while galvanizing GOP turnout to boot).

[Bidenworth2020]

The reason I personally am hesitant to make that comparison is because Carter's performance in those areas was simply unattainable. Perhaps it was due to the Carter name, but regardless, there was never a chance that Abrams would be able to keep Kemp under 70% in most of Southwest Georgia like Carter did. One comparison that might be more interesting, although also outdated, would be 2012 President -> 2018 Governor.

But SW GA is like...nothing. Take everything west of I-75 and south of the Fall Line and you're talking about 6% of population (probably more like 5% of voters). Even when considering 2014/18 performance, Abrams didn't implode that badly there among white voters (the only apt comparison, given black population there was & is evaporating; can't win what doesn't exist): it was basically everywhere else in rural GA where she truly bombed in raw votes (SE GA, North GA, etc). Those places weren't inherently "loyal" to Carter because of his name in the way that a place like SW GA would've been.

Obviously her holding all of Carter's performance in these places wasn't possible - it's an illustration of how these places can still rat-f[inks]k Democrats despite so many in the party saying for the past 15 years that we've finally reached the bottom after every single election. It was a three-pronged set of losses with regard to her candidacy (in comparison to Carter's) in rural areas: one because of trends (unavoidable), one because she was a black woman (unavoidable in her personal circumstance, but not unavoidable for Democrats in general) and one because she went out of her way to talk about guns, Confederate monuments and other cultural claptrap that didn't motivate a single person to show up for her, but surely turned some likely voters against her (while galvanizing GOP turnout to boot).

Sorry, I meant to refer to South Georgia, basically everything south of the black belt sans Savannah. Anyway, Biden is able to counteract at least one of these factors (white man) and potentially another (depends on what Biden focuses his campaign on, though absurdly high rural turnout for Trump is basically a given). Anyway, even if he does this, it is only about 30% of the state. I am more curious about whether Abrams' performance in urban areas, and more specifically the ATL metro, is more of a high point or mid point for democrats. Is Abrams' ground game simply too strong to replicate? Or will Biden be able to turn out a lot of those low propensity black and Hispanic voters who probably had not voted for years, if ever.

[Meatball Ron]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

Seriously? Random pastor? He's the pastor of a very famous, influential church where MLK was once pastor. He's well-known and seems to be running a great campaign.

Anyway - bringing this back to the Class II seat - is Ossoff considered the likely nominee or is Tomlinson believed to have a shot? She seems like the better GE option to me but I haven't seen any polling on the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

Seriously? Random pastor? He's the pastor of a very famous, influential church where MLK was once pastor. He's well-known and seems to be running a great campaign.

Anyway - bringing this back to the Class II seat - is Ossoff considered the likely nominee or is Tomlinson believed to have a shot? She seems like the better GE option to me but I haven't seen any polling on the primary.

Ossoff led Tomlinson and Amico 31-16-15 in a recent AJC/UGA poll.

[Meatball Ron]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

Seriously? Random pastor? He's the pastor of a very famous, influential church where MLK was once pastor. He's well-known and seems to be running a great campaign.

Anyway - bringing this back to the Class II seat - is Ossoff considered the likely nominee or is Tomlinson believed to have a shot? She seems like the better GE option to me but I haven't seen any polling on the primary.

Ossoff led Tomlinson and Amico 31-16-15 in a recent AJC/UGA poll.

Thanks! Definitely doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead then.

[brucejoel99]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

Seriously? Random pastor? He's the pastor of a very famous, influential church where MLK was once pastor. He's well-known and seems to be running a great campaign.

Anyway - bringing this back to the Class II seat - is Ossoff considered the likely nominee or is Tomlinson believed to have a shot? She seems like the better GE option to me but I haven't seen any polling on the primary.

Ossoff led Tomlinson and Amico 31-16-15 in a recent AJC/UGA poll.

Thanks! Definitely doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead then.

With how competent Tomlinson's campaign appears to have been run thus far, it likely is :/

[Pollster]

Entirely possible that Tomlinson's strategy is coasting through the first round by relying on her regional base, before ramping up for the runoff.

Bad strategy imo, but it could work.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Entirely possible that Tomlinson's strategy is coasting through the first round by relying on her regional base, before ramping up for the runoff.

Bad strategy imo, but it could work.

Will there even be a run off? If Ossoff is leading that big I'm sure his lead in Metro Atlanta where he has infrastructure from 2017 and high name rec is even higher. He will probably get over 50 percent on Election Night.

[Pollster]

Entirely possible that Tomlinson's strategy is coasting through the first round by relying on her regional base, before ramping up for the runoff.

Bad strategy imo, but it could work.

Will there even be a run off? If Ossoff is leading that big I'm sure his lead in Metro Atlanta where he has infrastructure from 2017 and high name rec is even higher. He will probably get over 50 percent on Election Night.

Definitely a strong possibility. If she is truly not competing in the Atlanta metro and is relying on downstate, her fundraising makes sense. She will need to post landslide margins literally everywhere else in the state to put herself in a runoff, and will then have a lot of ground to make up to make the runoff competitive. Hence why it seems like a poor strategy.

Do any local posters know what her campaign looks like downstate? Is it entirely a ground operation? Is she doing any events?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1250440612261679104?s=20

Teresa Tomlinson raised $600k and Amico raised $168k. I’m voting for Ossoff. National Dems may still abandon this race with him but they’re definitely avoiding us with the other two.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1250537202746044416?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, this is Safe R. Ossoff will not be able to compete with the massive amount of money Perdue has and will continue to raise.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Swalwell just endorsed Tomlinson. What a doofus

[gerritcole]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

[SnowLabrador]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

[gerritcole]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

those 3 would be better than ossoff/tomlinson/warnock

[gerritcole]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

you don't like hegar? Beto should have passed on prez and challenged cornyn imo

[SnowLabrador]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

you don't like hegar? Beto should have passed on prez and challenged cornyn imo

Hegar's okay, but she's not raising nearly enough money. Beto is the only one who might have had a chance.

[gerritcole]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

you don't like hegar? Beto should have passed on prez and challenged cornyn imo

Hegar's okay, but she's not raising nearly enough money. Beto is the only one who might have had a chance.

That’s why I think it’s a mistake that Obama stayed out till now. He could have been raising millions upon millions for these battleground races. I think dems are making the mistake again neglecting congressional races somewhat to focus on prez

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

those 3 would be better than ossoff/tomlinson/warnock

You guys have to give he canidates in these senate races a chance to prove themselves. Beto started out as a nobody early on in the cycle but ended up being very successful. Maybe Ossoff run a terrible campaign and doesn't stir up any media attention, but maybe he runs an amazing campaign and we'll look back on this forum and laugh. Abrams wasn'ta ll that great, considering the margin would be about what you would expect in 2018, and even though she did better in ATL, she didn't improve by much, and even did worse in some rural areas than Clinton.

[gerritcole]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

those 3 would be better than ossoff/tomlinson/warnock

You guys have to give he canidates in these senate races a chance to prove themselves. Beto started out as a nobody early on in the cycle but ended up being very successful. Maybe Ossoff run a terrible campaign and doesn't stir up any media attention, but maybe he runs an amazing campaign and we'll look back on this forum and laugh. Abrams wasn'ta ll that great, considering the margin would be about what you would expect in 2018, and even though she did better in ATL, she didn't improve by much, and even did worse in some rural areas than Clinton.

Do you think dems win either seat

[Pollster]

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

I've gotten a text from the Ossoff campaign and have seen his TV ads.  Haven't seen anything from Tomlinson or Amico yet, but then I'm not getting out much.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

I've gotten a text from the Ossoff campaign and have seen his TV ads.  Haven't seen anything from Tomlinson or Amico yet, but then I'm not getting out much.

Do any of the lower-profile candidates have a chance of getting into the runoff?

[Rookie Yinzer]

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

I've seen Jon on television, I haven't been reached out to by any campaign for volunteering. From what I've seen on social media, Ossoff has been the most aggressive about recruiting virtual volunteers, but who knows how many people are actually biting.