Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Meeker]

Any Republican news? I wanna see how big the Paul blip is.

They didn't do an exit poll

[True Democrat]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

It's getting rather common these days to identify as non-denominational Christian even if you don't attend a non-denominational church (actually that's not surprising since it is the most logical classification if you consider yourself a Christian but don't attend any church.)

I suppose it's the fact that it's strong for Obama that gets me. Elsewhere, Obama runs strongly among Protestants largely because most blacks identify as Protestants. But I can only explain those numbers by saying that, in PA but not elsewhere, blacks identify as "generic Christians".

Obama also does well with Protestants because the Upper classes are Protestant more heavily than Catholics. Which makes sense.

Maybe in 1600. . .when Catholics didn't really believe in capitalism.

(just kidding, but I don't think that's as true today)

[Gustaf]

tv link please?

If you're referring to the churchgoers, it's from CNN.

No, I want a live stream of some kind. I haven't managed to locate one yet so I thought someone might be able to help me out. I had one from CNN last time around.

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1

Thank you!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I have real difficult seeing Clinton dropping out tonight even if she barely wins. The only way it ends tonight is with an Obama win

The numbers I'm seeing in the exit poll seem to indicate that even some of the more clueless people may start to pick up on the fact that this nomination is over. What the Clintons do should become less and less relevant.

[J. J.]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

It's getting rather common these days to identify as non-denominational Christian even if you don't attend a non-denominational church (actually that's not surprising since it is the most logical classification if you consider yourself a Christian but don't attend any church.)

I suppose it's the fact that it's strong for Obama that gets me. Elsewhere, Obama runs strongly among Protestants largely because most blacks identify as Protestants. But I can only explain those numbers by saying that, in PA but not elsewhere, blacks identify as "generic Christians".

The type of people I described should be strong for Obama.

[Aizen]

I have real difficult seeing Clinton dropping out tonight even if she barely wins. The only way it ends tonight is with an Obama win

There will be pressure but yeah, it may take all the way until  a loss in Indiana to put her to rest for good.

[Verily]

Regional breakdown of the exit poll:

Philadelphia: 16%
Philadelphia suburbs: 13%
Northeast: 14%
Pittsburgh and West: 33%
Central and North: 24% (Obama did surprisingly well here, everywhere else as expected)

Region is the one thing they'll be rebalancing if they do change the exit poll.

[Meeker]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

Let the spin begin!

[Aizen]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

That's what the Clinton campaign will try to spin, I'm sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will be interesting to see how close the final results are to these early [actual] exit poll figures. I think a bit of sleep would be nice though. Nos da.

[Meeker]

Philly and suburbs only 29%? I find that at little hard to believe

[True Democrat]

Regional breakdown of the exit poll:

Philadelphia: 16%
Philadelphia suburbs: 13%
Northeast: 14%
Pittsburgh and West: 33%
Central and North: 24%

Region is the one thing they'll be rebalancing if they do change the exit poll.

Does Pittsburgh and West seem a bit high in comparison to Philadelphia plus suburbs to you?  Although, I might be underestimating the number of votes from Erie and the Northwest.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

Would MS have been Clinton's if she spent more money there?

[Person Man]

Probably. She can say that she is a grass-roots champion!  lol.

[J. J.]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

Let the spin begin!

No, Obama should win big, if based on the money.  That 33% from the west does not look good.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This is weird.  The exit polls look so bad for Obama but the leaked overall exit polls are showing that it's close, within 4% even. 

Do you think that the methodology they used might be off?  Considering Obama possibly over-performed? 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, Obama should win big, if based on the money.  That 33% from the west does not look good.

Obama's 2-1 spending advantage isn't so overwhelming when you consider the entire so called media shilling for Clinton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re; regional oddness... take a look at the Random Maps thread. For there thee shall find maps show % Democrat by county and CD. Data a little old, but the basic pattern probably won't have shifted much, even with the new registrations. This, comrades, is of course not an open primary.

Nos da again!

[Aizen]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

Let the spin begin!

No, Obama should win big, if based on the money.  That 33% from the west does not look good.

why did mitt romney lose then to mccain who had no money.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

What do they consider the western part of the state?

[True Democrat]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

Let the spin begin!

No, Obama should win big, if based on the money.  That 33% from the west does not look good.

Not good as in for Obama, or in terms of balancing the state populations?

[Lief 🗽]

Regional breakdown of the exit poll:

Philadelphia: 16%
Philadelphia suburbs: 13%
Northeast: 14%
Pittsburgh and West: 33%
Central and North: 24% (Obama did surprisingly well here, everywhere else as expected)

Region is the one thing they'll be rebalancing if they do change the exit poll.

Perhaps off-topic, but how do the exit pollsters even figure out the regional balancing? Is it analysis of historical trends mixed with observation of turnout? It seems nearly impossible to do.

[Sam Spade]

It will be interesting to see how close the final results are to these early [actual] exit poll figures. I think a bit of sleep would be nice though. Nos da.

Of course.  That's part of the fun - got to be patient though.  Night.

[Person Man]

Well some exits have him down by 4 and some by 9.... It could be closer than either or Hillary could run away with it...then again, Obama could win. It will probably be along my predictions, though.