Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Ty440]

MOMENTUM!

I have already steeled myself for Obama to be up between 4 and 8 points until deep, deep into Oct, look for the race to tighten a week and a half before Nov4th  and the tracking poll tightening dramatically in the last 4 or 5 days Ala Gore in 2000 , Ala Ford in 1976

Flashback 30 days before the New Hampshire Primary, Mccain Looked, like he was TOAST losing to Romney in every poll by solid double digits, One would be wise to not count MAC out just yet

[Nym90]

So the last two nights McCain has cut into the lead? Nice. Maybe by Tuesday we'll be down 4?

If I had a dime for every time someone on this forum committed the trend line fallacy...

All the strippers in Minneapolis would've moved on to respectable jobs by now?

[J. J.]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

I have never once heard you say an Obama gain of a point (or an Obama gain of ~0.07 for that matter) may be the beginning of a trend.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

I have never once heard you say an Obama gain of a point (or an Obama gain of ~0.07 for that matter) may be the beginning of a trend.

Of course not; he doesn't support Obama.

[Democratic Hawk]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

Nothing whatsoever happened to justify any trend to McCain. 159,000 jobs were reported lost Friday

Dave

[J. J.]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

I have never once heard you say an Obama gain of a point (or an Obama gain of ~0.07 for that matter) may be the beginning of a trend.

I think I've posted a number of times to ignore McCain increases mid-week, because he's tended to go up mid-week.  I'm interested in things that go against patter, like a smaller Obama lead on weekends.  And I'm more concerned if McCain drops in the Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday Gallup polls.

In short, if nothing in the race changed, I'd expect Obama to be either holding or increasing on this poll today.  That didn't happen.  That might be noise, or it might be something else.

[Nym90]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

Nothing whatsoever happened to justify any trend to McCain. 159,000 jobs were reported lost Friday

Dave

Ah, but you're forgetting about Palin's clear and unequivocal victory performance in the VP debate, and also the fact that in times of crisis, voters will side with experience.

Certainly that's gotta be it.....

[J. J.]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

Nothing whatsoever happened to justify any trend to McCain. 159,000 jobs were reported lost Friday

Dave

Why do you think I said, it could be noise. 

There were several other things, the bailout, the VP debate.  Noise or trend, well to early to tell.  I do start looking when McCain goes down mid week and Obama goes down over a weekend on Gallup.

[Eraserhead]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

I have never once heard you say an Obama gain of a point (or an Obama gain of ~0.07 for that matter) may be the beginning of a trend.

I think I've posted a number of times to ignore McCain increases mid-week, because he's tended to go up mid-week.  I'm interested in things that go against patter, like a smaller Obama lead on weekends.  And I'm more concerned if McCain drops in the Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday Gallup polls.

In short, if nothing in the race changed, I'd expect Obama to be either holding or increasing on this poll today.  That didn't happen.  That might be noise, or it might be something else.

lol. J.J.

[exopolitician]

Gallup is always the last to release numbers. *impatient*

[Tender Branson]

Monday, October 6:

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 42 (-1)

[Aizen]

YES WE CAN!

[Rowan]

The good news is that Obama cannot seem to get over 50%. The bad news is that McCain can't get over 43%.

[Eraserhead]

So much for JJ's "trend"...

[Lunar]

[Likely Voter]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

[J. J.]

So much for JJ's "trend"...

I said we'll have to wait and see, not a "trend."

Obama basically should be going up on Gallup.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL. Another italicized "should" from J. J.

[J. J.]

LOL. Another italicized "should" from J. J.

Because you apparently cannot understand it.  If McCain, in Thursday's, Friday's, or Saturday's Gallup numbers, drop, that is big news, because McCain tends to do a bit better in those polls. 

If Obama, in Sunday's, Monday's, or Tuesday's Gallup numbers, drop, that is big news, because Obama tends to do a bit better in those polls. 

Not much for either candidate, but a bit.

If McCain's midweek numbers go up a little, I'm not going to get too excited.  If his numbers continue at the same level, I'm going to get depressed.

[Iosif]

But the weekend/weekday bounces are just a figment of your imagination.

[Eraserhead]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

 

Probably. Biden was a class act in that debate.

[J. J.]

But the weekend/weekday bounces are just a figment of your imagination.

Except other people noticed them on Gallup.  He's one from an Obama supporter on DU.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5393055#5393230

[Democratic Hawk]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

 

Probably. Biden was a class act in that debate.

Well Joe Biden sure as hell knows staid ol' Johnny one hell of a lot better than Saintly Sarah. Whenever she 1) defended Johnny and 2) discussed her own record as mayor and governor in Alaska, the response from the CNN panel of Ohio undecideds was flat

Dave

[Rowan]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

 

Probably. Biden was a class act in that debate.

Well Joe Biden sure as hell knows staid ol' Johnny one hell of a lot better than Saintly Sarah. Whenever she 1) defended Johnny and 2) discussed her own record as mayor and governor in Alaska, the response from the CNN panel of Ohio undecideds was flat

Dave

The "Ohio undecideds" was actually the CNN newsroom.