PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Republican Primary - CA ResultsPolls
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Source: Field Research Corporation (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
TrumpRepublican39%pie
Poll Date: 2016-04-04
Number Polled: 558
Margin of Error: 4%
Voter Type: Likely
CruzRepublican32%
KasichRepublican18%
OtherRepublican0%
-UndecidedRepublican11%

Trump with Slight Lead in California

 By: leip (I-NY) on 2016-04-07 @ 10:01:56

Question:

About this Poll
The findings come from a Field Poll completed March 24 – April 4, 2016 among 1,400 registered voters in California, including 558 Republicans considered likely to vote in the state's June Republican presidential primary election. The statewide sample was augmented among Republican voters to increase the number of interviews conducted among likely voters in the state's Republican primary.

Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall registered voter sample is ± 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and is ± 4.0 percentage points for the sample of likely Republican primary voters. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors.

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