2004 Democratic Primary

[© tweed]

CHRETIEN...got it....

nah, that's not gonna stuck.  The one good thing about AMerican politics is that I can spell the candidate's names easier ;-)

Je ne parl pa!

Paul Martin is easy enough to spell.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would think that Martin is too right wing for that to happen, but the NDP could be a threat in 4 years time IF(and it's a big if) they can tap into Western and Eastern alienation from the dominance of Central Canada(Ontario+Quebec)

[migrendel]

I believe you mean Je ne parle pas.

[© tweed]

I would think that Martin is too right wing for that to happen, but the NDP could be a threat in 4 years time IF(and it's a big if) they can tap into Western and Eastern alienation from the dominance of Central Canada(Ontario+Quebec)

Martin isn't that right wing, but he is to the right of Chreiten.  
The NDP will not be a threat nationally for a long, long, long time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I said it's a BIG if.
They certainly won't win an election in 4 years time, but IF(big if) they can tap into the alienation of the West and the East they could give Martin a scare.
But won't beat him.

[© tweed]

I said it's a BIG if.
They certainly won't win an election in 4 years time, but IF(big if) they can tap into the alienation of the West and the East they could give Martin a scare.
But won't beat him.

The NDP has success in Nova Scotia, right?

But I just don't see them being a national threat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't either. But it's a possibility.

[© tweed]

I can't either. But it's a possibility.

Isn't the NDP popular in Nova Scotia?  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes it is.
Nova Scotia is poor(even for the Atlantic) with serious economic(ex-coal, ex-fishing) and social problems(have a guess), especially in Cape Breton.
The only odd thing about the NDP's strength there is the fact that it is very recent(mid '90's)

BTW "I can't" was in referance to it's threat to Martin.

[RhodeRage]

The NDP never have been anything but a vote splitter.  It is possible that they could take away some federal support for the liberals across the country and help the Conservatives down the road by damaging the liberals (for example, in interior Toronto).

However, I still think that Canadians will soon get tired of the Liberals and move to the Conservatives (as much as I'd hate to admit it).  They won't care how right winged Martin is, but rather just turn for a fresh face.  Martin will be the death of the liberal party, mark my words.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's certainly true of Ontario.
But in Saskatchwan the NDP think that the Liberals are the vote splitters(!)

[RhodeRage]

That's certainly true of Ontario.
But in Saskatchwan the NDP think that the Liberals are the vote splitters(!)

As a native of Ontario, I can't help but reiterate the importance of Ontario in winning the federal elections.  No offense to the West, but all the liberals need to do is keep Ontario strong and all the NDP need to do is to split the vote in Ontario.  Nothing else matters...sorry if I'm sounding contemptuous to the rest of the country, but it's a sort of dry realism that I've developed over the years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh I know.
Ontario has over 100 seats. Sask has 14.
I was reflecting on the irony of politics in the Praries

[RhodeRage]

Fair enough.  Personally, I wish things were a little more mixed up here, but we can't have it all.  

ru from Canada, or just an observer?  

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Maybe Canada needs some sort of Electoral College to balance things out

Oh I know.
Ontario has over 100 seats. Sask has 14.
I was reflecting on the irony of politics in the Praries

[© tweed]

The NDP never have been anything but a vote splitter.  It is possible that they could take away some federal support for the liberals across the country and help the Conservatives down the road by damaging the liberals (for example, in interior Toronto).

However, I still think that Canadians will soon get tired of the Liberals and move to the Conservatives (as much as I'd hate to admit it).  They won't care how right winged Martin is, but rather just turn for a fresh face.  Martin will be the death of the liberal party, mark my words.

I agree.  Good post.  the NDP splits the lib vote.  Without the NDP, the Libs would have broken 60% in the Ontario Provincial election this October.

[Gustaf]

Maybe Canada needs some sort of Electoral College to balance things out

Oh I know.
Ontario has over 100 seats. Sask has 14.
I was reflecting on the irony of politics in the Praries

Don't try spreading your mess to unsuspecting neighbours!

[© tweed]

Maybe Canada needs some sort of Electoral College to balance things out

Oh I know.
Ontario has over 100 seats. Sask has 14.
I was reflecting on the irony of politics in the Praries

Don't try spreading your mess to unsuspecting neighbours!

LOL...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ru from Canada, or just an observer?  

I have a second cousin originally from B.C who later moved to Manitoba.
I also have an interest in mining regions, so I've always liked Cape Breton.
Oh I'm also part Viking

[jravnsbo]

Economists Predict Drop in Unemployment    

NEW YORK - Companies are expected to step up hiring in 2004 after a year in which household spending boosted the economy more than business investment, according to a group of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

The 54 economists surveyed for the Journal's 2004 economic-forecast report said they thought the unemployment rate could fall to 5.5 percent by November.


Hiring fueled by increasing corporate profits and economic growth could lead to as many as 1.5 million new jobs, the Journal said.


Though they did not predict a boom, the respondents said they expected the recovery to continue, with strong growth in the first part of the year expected to slow toward the year's end.


"The economy will be producing a message that employment is growing at a pretty good pace, but not booming," Richard Rippe, chief economist at Prudential Equity Group Inc., told the Journal.


Real gross product was expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.5 percent in the first quarter, 4.3 percent in the second quarter and 4 percent in the second half of the year, the economists said.


Half of the respondents said they thought the Dow Jones Industrial Average could exceed 11000 by year end, and 93 percent said they had increased the amount they had personally invested in the stock market in the past year.

[© tweed]

ru from Canada, or just an observer?  

I have a second cousin originally from B.C who later moved to Manitoba.
I also have an interest in mining regions, so I've always liked Cape Breton.
Oh I'm also part Viking

Realpolitik pays attention to elections in every country.  scary, really.

[ABD]

Labour would be unwise to remove Tony Blair.  The UK is essentially a small-c conservative country.  Blair is the face of Labour acceptability and electability.  Remove Blair and Labour will make it that much harder for itself.

Brown may give the Labour faithful and assorted lefties a collective feelgood factor but that won't win elections.  That's not to say Brown can't win elections - but it's not a good enough reason to simply replace Blair with Brown.




 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No ABD the U.K is not a small c conservative country.
In every election since 1945 the total vote of the centre-left(Lab+Lib) has been higher than the total vote of the centre-right(Con)
This was even the case in 1983(!)

[Michael Z]

Labour would be unwise to remove Tony Blair.  The UK is essentially a small-c conservative country.  Blair is the face of Labour acceptability and electability.  Remove Blair and Labour will make it that much harder for itself.

Not entirely true, as RP pointed out. It's primarily the Southeast that can be described as conservative, and that applies to rural areas only (as for London... well, look at our mayor). The rest of England, particularly the North, is more centre-left.

However, bearing in mind that this applies to voting patterns, not necessarily social attitudes.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yet another rightist statement which is somewhat detached from reality (you may face less rancour if you avoided using patronising terms like "lefties"). The person you're talking about is someone like Robin Cook, not one of the most popular Chancellors in modern political history.

[mr_president]

In a recent survey 45% of those asked believe Blair will not be Prime Minister in twelve months' time.

But that means that 55% OF THOSE asked believe Blair will be PM in Twelve Months time.

Doesn't matter. 45% is still a high number.

As is 55%, that a majorty. There will always be a minority.