UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But one thing that has happened since the 80s in Lewisham is the "downscale terrace" effect - quite reliable in London as a correlate of recent economic decline and white-flight. Lewisham East is #32/573 in England and Wales for White ethnicity, albeit not one with minorities in the majority. That now means Labour is hugely favoured, but NB Labour also won 6 of the 10 most white constituencies in England and Wales!

Yes - this is what has changed it from being a reliably Labour area under most circumstances to very safe. But, basically, whenever anyone tries to insist that London voting patterns in the 1980s were historically 'normal', they're trying to push some kind of agenda (exactly what depends on the person in question).

[EPG]

Of course - that is 32 beginning from least and going to most! I've never knowingly been to East Ham (least white) or Workington (most) though I've walked around neighbouring "Penrith and the Border".

[YL]

The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn has been called for Thursday 4 April.

Newport West is the sort of seat that could vote Tory in a landslide but usually votes Labour; it voted Tory in 1983 but Flynn gained it in 1987 and held it ever since.  In 2017 he got 52% to the Tories' 39%; it was a bit closer in 2015.  So Labour really ought to hold this even in the current mess that is British politics.

TIG can't stand as such as they're not yet a registered party (and surely won't be in time to be nominated).  The small "Renew" party, who have rather similar politics (to the extent that TIG's politics can be defined) have announced a candidate, though.

[Silent Hunter]

Could an Independent not run with the promise to affiliate to TIG if elected?

[YL]

Could an Independent not run with the promise to affiliate to TIG if elected?

Yes, no reason why not.  Indeed I suppose more than one might.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hypothetically if Labour lose this seat, what would that mean for Corbyn's leadership? I seem to recall a Stoke by-election loss to the Tories was the impetus for the "2016 coup" by the PLP.

[MAINEiac4434]

When will selection take place?

Hypothetically if Labour lose this seat, what would that mean for Corbyn's leadership? I seem to recall a Stoke by-election loss to the Tories was the impetus for the "2016 coup" by the PLP.

That was in 2017 and led to calls for resignation that of course amounted to nothing.

That's right; May called the election soon after (almost as if to keep Corbyn around for it).

[YL]

When will selection take place?

Most parties have already selected, because the by-election was expected.  (Flynn had indicated he was about to stand down.)  The full list of candidates will be announced on Friday.

Labour's candidate is Ruth Jones, who stood in Monmouth in 2015 and 2017 and is a former president of the Welsh TUC; I don't know where she is in terms of Labour's factions. she endorsed Corbyn in 2015.  The Tories have selected Matthew Evans, a Newport councillor.

UKIP have selected Neil Hamilton.  For anybody else who remembers the mid-1990s, yes, that Neil Hamilton.

[YL]

Hypothetically if Labour lose this seat, what would that mean for Corbyn's leadership? I seem to recall a Stoke by-election loss to the Tories was the impetus for the "2016 coup" by the PLP.

Correction: Stoke Central was held but with an underwhelming performance; it was Copeland which was lost.  And, as mentioned, it was a bit after that, arguably encouraging May to call the 2017 election.

[YL]

11 candidates for Newport West

Jonathan Clark (Plaid)
June Davis (Renew)
Matthew Evans (Con)
Neil Hamilton (UKIP)
Ruth Jones (Lab)
Ryan Jones (LD)
Ian McLean (SDP)
Hugh Nicklin (For Britain)
Richard Suchorzewski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly)
Philip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans)
Amelia Womack (Green)

[Silent Hunter]

Who are the people not from the regular parties?

[YL]

Who are the people not from the regular parties?

Renew is a small anti-Brexit party.

Democrats and Veterans and For Britain are UKIP splinters, the latter certainly tending towards the far right.  (I'm not sure about the former.)

The SDP is the ghost of the 1980s SDP.  Famously David Owen refused to join the Lib Dems after the merger and tried to continue with a new SDP, but gave up in embarrassment after their candidate was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party in a by-election in Bootle in 1990.  Some of their members kept the party going with a very low profile and a handful of local councillors for 27 years, and it has recently gained more of a profile after several former UKIP members, including Patrick O'Flynn MEP, joined them.  As that suggests, it doesn't resemble its centrist pro-European ancestor and looks more like yet another UKIP splinter, though probably at the less offensive end of the spectrum of such things.

Abolish the Welsh Assembly is basically a single issue party, but also comes across as a bit UKIPpy and some of its leading figures are ex-UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The SDP is the ghost of the 1980s SDP.  Famously David Owen refused to join the Lib Dems after the merger and tried to continue with a new SDP, but gave up in embarrassment after their candidate was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party in a by-election in Bootle in 1990.  Some of their members kept the party going with a very low profile and a handful of local councillors for 27 years, and it has recently gained more of a profile after several former UKIP members, including Patrick O'Flynn MEP, joined them. 

It is a little more complicated than that: the SDP was formally and officially wound up after the Bootle fiasco, but a small group of members (the most 'high profile' of which was literally the man who finished below the Loonies in the Bootle poll), met separately and voted to carry on (which, in practice, meant forming a new party with the old name; after all, no one else was using it). So it isn't the legal successor (even though it likes to pretend otherwise), but is a descendant.

[YL]

The SDP is the ghost of the 1980s SDP.  Famously David Owen refused to join the Lib Dems after the merger and tried to continue with a new SDP, but gave up in embarrassment after their candidate was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party in a by-election in Bootle in 1990.  Some of their members kept the party going with a very low profile and a handful of local councillors for 27 years, and it has recently gained more of a profile after several former UKIP members, including Patrick O'Flynn MEP, joined them. 

It is a little more complicated than that: the SDP was formally and officially wound up after the Bootle fiasco, but a small group of members (the most 'high profile' of which was literally the man who finished below the Loonies in the Bootle poll), met separately and voted to carry on (which, in practice, meant forming a new party with the old name; after all, no one else was using it). So it isn't the legal successor (even though it likes to pretend otherwise), but is a descendant.

They did surprisingly well (i.e. they saved their deposit) in the 1991 Neath by-election when Peter Hain was first elected.  Do you know what was going on?

As far as I can tell the only other by-election the post-Bootle SDP has contested was Newbury 1993.  They got 33 votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They did surprisingly well (i.e. they saved their deposit) in the 1991 Neath by-election when Peter Hain was first elected.  Do you know what was going on?

Their candidate was a well known local councillor with a big personal following in his ward (Cimla). Shortly afterwards he joined the LibDems and was their candidate at Ogmore in the 1992 General Election. He's still a councillor, though now for Labour.

[Tintrlvr]

I believe Neath Port Talbot was one of the last places where they still had local council representation. Like how the continuity Liberals have or had lingering representation in a few spots (Wyre Forest and Liverpool, I believe, and maybe one or two other hotspots).

Is the Renew candidate like a de facto TIG candidate?

[MAINEiac4434]

I believe Neath Port Talbot was one of the last places where they still had local council representation. Like how the continuity Liberals have or had lingering representation in a few spots (Wyre Forest and Liverpool, I believe, and maybe one or two other hotspots).

Is the Renew candidate like a de facto TIG candidate?

Yeah Renew was TIG before TIG was TIG.

[YL]

I believe Neath Port Talbot was one of the last places where they still had local council representation. Like how the continuity Liberals have or had lingering representation in a few spots (Wyre Forest and Liverpool, I believe, and maybe one or two other hotspots).

Yes, also the Bridlington wards of the East Riding for the SDP for a long time.  However, although the organisation is continuous, I'm not sure there's much real continuity between those small council groups and the current Brexity SDP.  One of the first UKIP figures to join the SDP was Steve Winstone, who was UKIP candidate for Sheffield South East in 2015 and in the Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough by-election, but then stood for the SDP in Sheffield Hallam in 2017.  I encountered him at a hustings for Hallam in 2015 (he was standing in for the Hallam UKIP candidate) and would have to say that he came across as entirely typical UKIP.

The continuity Liberals generally strike me as an alternative for people who have fallen out with the Lib Dems for some reason.  Like the SDP, they are pro-Brexit, but they don't have the ex-UKIP influence.  Their most prominent figure is a Liverpool councillor called Steve Radford, who has a considerable personal vote in his ward (Tuebrook & Stoneycroft) and came second in Liverpool West Derby in both the 1997 and 2001 general elections.  He actually stood for the European Parliament as part of an otherwise hard left list called No2EU.  The other place where they have several councillors is around Pickering in North Yorkshire (Ryedale district); they also have a councillor in Peterborough so perhaps will stand if/when there's a by-election there.

Is the Renew candidate like a de facto TIG candidate?

Their political positioning is similar, but I'm not aware of any endorsements (either way round).

[YL]

Newport West is tomorrow.  Andrew Teale's preview is here.

There doesn't seem to be much chatter about anyone other than Labour winning.  That ought to be the case, given that it's usually a Labour seat and they're in opposition, but UK politics is so chaotic at the moment that there could have been.  So my impression is that an upset is not expected.

For what it's worth, Labour are currently 10 or 12 to 1 on with most bookmakers, and UKIP, in spite of their ghastly candidate, are actually second favourites, which I suspect isn't based on intelligence from the campaign.

[Pilchard]

Newport West is tomorrow.  Andrew Teale's preview is here.

There doesn't seem to be much chatter about anyone other than Labour winning.  That ought to be the case, given that it's usually a Labour seat and they're in opposition, but UK politics is so chaotic at the moment that there could have been.  So my impression is that an upset is not expected.

For what it's worth, Labour are currently 10 or 12 to 1 on with most bookmakers, and UKIP, in spite of their ghastly candidate, are actually second favourites, which I suspect isn't based on intelligence from the campaign.

I live in Newport now and voted in this byelection - I'd expect a fairly comfortable Labour hold and a solid Conservative second place - their candidate seems to be well known and well regarded locally. But who knows these days. Strangely the most activity I've seen while out and about in Newport has been from Renew and the SDP (also UKIP - I'm looking forward to going to the shops this weekend without having to pass the Hamiltons on the way for once)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newport West contains the western half of Newport, a rather rough former coal port and steel town (though it is now a city) in south Montmouthshire, and three substantial commuter settlements (Caerleon, Rogerstone, Marshfield). The part of Newport in the seat is a mixture of humdrum working/lower middle class suburbia, sketchy inner urban areas (e.g. Pillgwenlly which was a dock district) and almost all of the properly middle class parts of Newport proper. It has the feel of a socially polarised seat prone to big fluctuations, but the idiosyncratic Flynn (first elected in 1987) was a popular incumbent and the local Labour Party is much better organised than the local Tories, and so recent swings have all been strikingly low. Majorities since the seat was first created:

1983 - Con 1.4, 1987 - Lab 6.0, 1992 - Lab 17.1, 1997 - Lab 36.1, 2001 - Lab 26.5, 2005 - Lab 15.3, 2010 - Lab 8.9, 2015 - Lab 8.7, 2017 - Lab 13.0

In the absence of Flynn the seat would have clearly been very close in 2010 and 2015 and could easily have been lost. Flynn's majority in 2017 is also flattering to his party. It's a good example of a constituency that's a 'natural' Labour seat in many respects but absolutely not a 'natural' stronghold. It is a safer seat at Assembly level as this is one of those parts of Wales where Tory supporters are less likely to bother with Assembly polls.

[Tintrlvr]

Labour hold Newport West, small swing to the Tories but nothing significant. UKIP third.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Extremely boring result - poor results for the big two, none of the billion smaller and minor parties gaining serious traction despite that, obvious impact of the bad weather on turnout, obvious impact of the popular deceased incumbent not being on the ballot paper.

[adma]

Extremely boring result - poor results for the big two, none of the billion smaller and minor parties gaining serious traction despite that, obvious impact of the bad weather on turnout, obvious impact of the popular deceased incumbent not being on the ballot paper.

Can't say it's *boring* for all those minor parties (and both Tories and UKIP benefited from "familiar" standard-bearers)

Labour 9,308 39.6 -12.7
Conservative 7,357 31.3 -8.0
UKIP   2,023 8.6 +6.1
Plaid Cymru 1,185 5.0 +2.5
Liberal Democrat 1,088 4.6 +2.4
Green 924 3.9 +2.8
Renew 879 3.7
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 205 0.9
SDP 202 0.9
Democrats and Veterans 185 0.8
For Britain   159 0.7

[YL]

Extremely boring result - poor results for the big two, none of the billion smaller and minor parties gaining serious traction despite that, obvious impact of the bad weather on turnout, obvious impact of the popular deceased incumbent not being on the ballot paper.

Yes, it struck me as managing to be a rather disappointing result for everybody.  Big two both down, fairly substantially, but none of the others really making a breakthrough.

On to Peterborough, I suspect.  I fear the Tories may win that back.