AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Cactus Jack]

If it's Ward v. Sinema, as much as I hate to give my (symbolic) endorsement to an atheist, I have to go with Sinema. There are simply no circumstances where it is safe to let Chemtrail Kelli into the Senate.

I often find myself very deeply questioning your logic, Wulf, but in this I proudly welcome you to Convoy Kyrsten.

Also, as an Arizonan, I can completely confirm the analysis in this thread: Flake's career is over, this seat is probably ours, and I'm finally willing to give up my Representative for the sake of taking it. I just hope Stanton jumps in to claim her seat when she makes the announcement.

Is it better to have Stanton run for Sinema's seat or for Governor?

Ducey, most likely, isn't going to go down even in an AZ-DEM banner year. His governorship has been less than stellar, but he hasn't been outwardly offensive and he's dodged the Trump bullet a lot more expertly than Flake. Right now, our best bet is to run Stanton for Sinema's seat and then springboard him into McCain's when it (sadly) inevitably opens up.

Honestly, our best shot at AZ-GOV is probably going to be running Penzone in 2022.

[Webnicz]

Yep, he did. As many people here were talking about,
Trump has indeed pardoned Joe Arpaio.

What bearings will this have on Arizona Republicans like Flake and Ducey? Could this affect races in other areas with sizable Latino populations?

It might affect areas with large Latino populations. Arpaio voters will likely vote for Ward. Trump-Penzone voters and Latino Republicans will likely vote for Flake, but vote for Sinema in November if Ward wins the primary.

The Arpaio pardon will likely take an effect on every statewide GO leader and especially flake, considering he's one nothing to fight back against the pardon, ****and most importantly Joe Arpaio endured flake in 2012 and Doug Ducey in 2014, there are plenty of images of flake, Ducey and Arpaio clapping on stage with each other*****

wow I hate Arpaio and think he should be rotting in jail for his crimes, but this pardon could really be the push AZ Dems need to take back the legislature and gain seats in the U.S. senate. because the left push in Maricopa county. Who knows maybe it might trickle down to Pima county and takeout McSally.

[Greedo punched first]

Yep, he did. As many people here were talking about,
Trump has indeed pardoned Joe Arpaio.

What bearings will this have on Arizona Republicans like Flake and Ducey? Could this affect races in other areas with sizable Latino populations?

It might affect areas with large Latino populations. Arpaio voters will likely vote for Ward. Trump-Penzone voters and Latino Republicans will likely vote for Flake, but vote for Sinema in November if Ward wins the primary.

The Arpaio pardon will likely take an effect on every statewide GO leader and especially flake, considering he's one nothing to fight back against the pardon, ****and most importantly Joe Arpaio endured flake in 2012 and Doug Ducey in 2014, there are plenty of images of flake, Ducey and Arpaio clapping on stage with each other*****

wow I hate Arpaio and think he should be rotting in jail for his crimes, but this pardon could really be the push AZ Dems need to take back the legislature and gain seats in the U.S. senate. because the left push in Maricopa county. Who knows maybe it might trickle down to Pima county and takeout McSally.

Doesn't Pima County border Maricopa County?

[Webnicz]

MORE BREAKING: McCain has seen the tide turning against arpaio, speaks out AGAINST the pardon. Flake should do the same if he wants to survive the general.

I expect him to do what McCain did about trump in the primary. Stay close to arpaio but after he wins the general denounce heavily.

Update: flake somewhat did, it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

[Greedo punched first]

MORE BREAKING: McCain has seen the tide turning against arpaio, speaks out AGAINST the pardon. Flake should do the same if he wants to survive the general.

I expect him to do what McCain did about trump in the primary. Stay close to arpaio but after he wins the general denounce heavily.

Update: flake somewhat did, it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

This would only help Sinema.

[Cactus Jack]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

[Greedo punched first]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

[Cactus Jack]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

At this point, he's our best bet. He's way to the left of Sinema, but he has charisma, he's baggage-free at this point, and he'd mobilize the Latino base. More importantly, if McCain's seat opens up, the Republican primary for it is going to be an absolute warzone, which can only end badly for whoever comes out of it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

[Cactus Jack]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I don't think so, and I say that as someone with a grudging respect for McCain. His situation is vastly different from, say, that of Steve Scalise. McCain's diagnosis was a tragedy, but the outcome of it is all but guaranteed, and I don't think we're doing anything particularly wrong by preparing for the future. You forget that there's also a distinct possibility that he vacates to focus on fighting the cancer.

[Greedo punched first]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I supported McCain in 2016 against both Ward and Kirkpatrick. I think McCain resigns. Tom Coburn resigned, and he's still alive.

[Greedo punched first]

Ducey gives the seat to Ward to ensure Flake can have an easier time. I mean I would give her the seat but oh well. Sinema is probably salivating over Kelli Ward running.

I think Martha McSally is more likely to be appointed. If Ward is appointed, the 2018 or 2020 special election will be lean D. If Ducey appoints Ward in 2018, he might be a one-term governor.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I don't think so, and I say that as someone with a grudging respect for McCain. His situation is vastly different from, say, that of Steve Scalise. McCain's diagnosis was a tragedy, but the outcome of it is all but guaranteed, and I don't think we're doing anything particularly wrong by preparing for the future. You forget that there's also a distinct possibility that he vacates to focus on fighting the cancer.

Scalise had a notable chance of dying, just as McCain does. Scalise received massive prayers from all sides and even when he was in critical condition there was no speculation of who would replace him should he pass away. But now because it's McCain, whose seat would be potentially winnable, left and left-leaning people are almost begging him to die. It really shows how terribly polarized our country is.

[Greedo punched first]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I don't think so, and I say that as someone with a grudging respect for McCain. His situation is vastly different from, say, that of Steve Scalise. McCain's diagnosis was a tragedy, but the outcome of it is all but guaranteed, and I don't think we're doing anything particularly wrong by preparing for the future. You forget that there's also a distinct possibility that he vacates to focus on fighting the cancer.

Scalise had a notable chance of dying, just as McCain does. Scalise received massive prayers from all sides and even when he was in critical condition there was no speculation of who would replace him should he pass away. But now because it's McCain, whose seat would be potentially winnable, left and left-leaning people are almost begging him to die. It really shows how terribly polarized our country is.

I want McCain to live. He's one of my favorite Senators. I haven't heard about anyone wanting McCain to die, except the alt-right. Have you? Resignation isn't rare for Senators with health problems.

[Cactus Jack]

Scalise had a notable chance of dying, just as McCain does. Scalise received massive prayers from all sides and even when he was in critical condition there was no speculation of who would replace him should he pass away. But now because it's McCain, whose seat would be potentially winnable, left and left-leaning people are almost begging him to die. It really shows how terribly polarized our country is.

The only people I've seen wishing death on McCain have been fanatics on both sides. I don't want him to die, least of all to something as awful as brain cancer, but his long-term situation is dire. Scalise's shooting was appreciably different; he was the victim of a random, horribly senseless act of violence, and he rightly received support during his time of need. Meanwhile, John McCain is the victim of his own body and frankly godawful cosmic misfortune - and, since I feel this ought to be emphasized, he has also rightly received support on both sides of the aisle.

But the hub of the matter is this: there was always a chance, if a fairly murky one, that Scalise would pull through. For McCain, his age and the nature of his diagnosis mean that that opening is hugely narrower. I'm not saying that a special election within the next two years is guaranteed, but it's very likely. Also, as ERM has already said, there's a very good chance that McCain just leaves the seat to focus on his treatment, which is what I would want for him anyway. He's earned the rest.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I don't think so, and I say that as someone with a grudging respect for McCain. His situation is vastly different from, say, that of Steve Scalise. McCain's diagnosis was a tragedy, but the outcome of it is all but guaranteed, and I don't think we're doing anything particularly wrong by preparing for the future. You forget that there's also a distinct possibility that he vacates to focus on fighting the cancer.

Scalise had a notable chance of dying, just as McCain does. Scalise received massive prayers from all sides and even when he was in critical condition there was no speculation of who would replace him should he pass away. But now because it's McCain, whose seat would be potentially winnable, left and left-leaning people are almost begging him to die. It really shows how terribly polarized our country is.

I want McCain to live. He's one of my favorite Senators. I haven't heard about anyone wanting McCain to die, except the alt-right. Have you? Resignation isn't rare for Senators with health problems.

Speculating about who will replace him is simply asking for his death, even if the word death is never actually used. Again, there was no replacement speculation for Scalise at any point. It should be the same way for McCain.

[Greedo punched first]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I don't think so, and I say that as someone with a grudging respect for McCain. His situation is vastly different from, say, that of Steve Scalise. McCain's diagnosis was a tragedy, but the outcome of it is all but guaranteed, and I don't think we're doing anything particularly wrong by preparing for the future. You forget that there's also a distinct possibility that he vacates to focus on fighting the cancer.

Scalise had a notable chance of dying, just as McCain does. Scalise received massive prayers from all sides and even when he was in critical condition there was no speculation of who would replace him should he pass away. But now because it's McCain, whose seat would be potentially winnable, left and left-leaning people are almost begging him to die. It really shows how terribly polarized our country is.

I want McCain to live. He's one of my favorite Senators. I haven't heard about anyone wanting McCain to die, except the alt-right. Have you? Resignation isn't rare for Senators with health problems.

Speculating about who will replace him is simply asking for his death, even if the word death is never actually used. Again, there was no replacement speculation for Scalise at any point. It should be the same way for McCain.

No. It is speculation about possible resignation. I can see McCain resigning to let a Democrat eventually take the seat in a special election, especially because the appointed incumbent will likely face a tough primary. If McCain resigns in November of 2018, that might also boost Democratic turnout in the 2020 presidential race by also having a Senate race in 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Kelli is the nominee, there's a 98% chance McCain endorses Sinema. John is actually more closely aligned politically with Kirsten than he is with Ward.

[Cactus Jack]

Arpaio, 85, hints at run for office: 'I've got a big political message to get out'

oh sweet jesus

[Webnicz]

I definitely see him running for election to be Sheriff again (and loosing)

[BuckeyeNut]

McCain doesn't even need to die for there to be a special election in 2018, 2020, or even 2019. Resigning to commit himself to fighting his diagnosis would be a very reasonable thing to do, as it would be for any Democrat in a similar situation. (Even if Ted Kennedy didn't.)

[Maxwell]

Arpaio, 85, hints at run for office: 'I've got a big political message to get out'

I hope Arpaio dies trying.

[Don Vito Corleone]

McCain doesn't even need to die for there to be a special election in 2018, 2020, or even 2019. Resigning to commit himself to fighting his diagnosis would be a very reasonable thing to do, as it would be for any Democrat in a similar situation. (Even if Ted Kennedy didn't.)

Don't Senators prefer to die with their boots on? Ted Kennedy, Robert Byrd, and Frank Lautenberg come to mind.

[Greedo punched first]

McCain doesn't even need to die for there to be a special election in 2018, 2020, or even 2019. Resigning to commit himself to fighting his diagnosis would be a very reasonable thing to do, as it would be for any Democrat in a similar situation. (Even if Ted Kennedy didn't.)

Don't Senators prefer to die with their boots on? Ted Kennedy, Robert Byrd, and Frank Lautenberg
come to mind.

Not Harry Flood Byrd Sr. or Tom Coburn (he's still alive).

[Greedo punched first]

Libertarian Doug Marks is in. Republican Nicholas Tutora is in.