Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

No comment on my charts? :/

They were very beautiful charts, though I'm slightly unsure over your decisson to use the same line for both New Democracy and SD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No comment on my charts? :/

They were very beautiful charts, though I'm slightly unsure over your decisson to use the same line for both New Democracy and SD.

Yeah, that was unfortunate (even moreso as it includes the nazis of the 1930s as well as modern neonazis), but the chart is already quite a mess without having to add more colors.

I was thinking about comments on the patterns though. Like the left barely reaching its 2006 levels even when FI is counted among them, or the increasing marginalization of non-M Alliance parties, or the fact that SD's rise seems to be linked with increased turnout.

[Colbert]

quartile maps by party. 29 counties, 7 counties by colors, so the 15th best perfom is colored in same color as the closed score, light blue or light green





























****************************************





cities were parties realize their relative best performance :


Stockholm : M, MP, C, FP, F!

Göteborg : V, KD

Malmö : S, SD

[swl]

Based on what?

An expert survey made by some guys at the University of Gothenburg.

Why is the June List even on this btw? They're as good as non-existent these days. They only got eight votes in total this election.

The survey was made in the context of the EU election, since the June list got 3% in the 2009 election, I suppose they assumed they would be still relevant in 2014.

[politicus]

Based on what?

An expert survey made by some guys at the University of Gothenburg.

In that case its really strange that it deviates so much from the common perception, there are some genuine oddities in the chart (as SCheese pointed out)..

[swl]

I think there is something wrong with the sovereignty-integration dimension, I will check it again.

Concerning the Left-Right dimension, here is how it looks like if I try to split it up:



I don't know Sweden politics enough to really analyse it. Concerning the difference between V and FI, there is a small difference on economic issues, but the main gap is on social issues, which is a bit weird at first sight. Apparently it's because of completely opposite positions on drugs. Is is true or a mistake in the survey?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I think there is something wrong with the sovereignty-integration dimension, I will check it again.

Concerning the Left-Right dimension, here is how it looks like if I try to split it up:



I don't know Sweden politics enough to really analyse it. Concerning the difference between V and FI, there is a small difference on economic issues, but the main gap is on social issues, which is a bit weird at first sight. Apparently it's because of completely opposite positions on drugs. Is is true or a mistake in the survey?

The survey in general seems a bit fishy if you ask me. (Especially considering the June List) I don't know that much about either V or FI's politic positions when it comes to drugs to say in that particular case, though it seems strange that such a (from a Swedish perspective) minor issue would  affect the left-right scale in such a drastic manner.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I still call nonsense on this. Putting F! right next to S on fiscal issues when they reject the notion of a budget or putting JL at the far right point when they were basically slightly centre-right are two glaring examples.

[Tayya]

Sweden has a system with personal votes, where a voter can choose to vote for a specific candidate on the list. If a candidate gets 5% (formerly 8%) of all the party votes in a specific constituency then they are elevated to the top of the list.

The most notable example in 2014 was in Jönköping County, Sweden's bible belt. The Christian Democrats had two seats here in 2010 and topped their list with two junior ministers, Minister of the Elderly and Children Maria Larsson and Minister of Housing and Public Affairs Stefan Attefall. Not only did they barely lose one of their mandates, but mostly unknown backbencher Andreas Carlson managed to edge past both of them in personal votes and cross the 5% threshold, kicking them both out of the Riksdag.

Here follows a map of the KD personal votes in Jönköping County by municipality. You can probably find the home municipalities of each candidate. Note the insane local support for Carlson in his native Mullsjö, that brought him to the top together with a strong second place finish in Jönköping, the major city and Attefall's home base (he is not a native, which might have contributed to his demise).

[Zanas]

Favorite son effects are utterly moronic. People who vote that way should be sent to the moon.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Scandinavia and the World weights in on the election. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Scandinavia and the World weights in on the election. 

Haha, so true.

Poor, poor Sweden.

[Cassius]

Scandinavia and the World weights in on the election. 

Denmark is the best

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Yeahsayyeah]

This has probably been asked before, though in other wording, but why is there this political divide between the parts, that had been danish in medieval and early modern times (Skane and the western coast) and the rest?

[politicus]

This has probably been asked before, though in other wording, but why is there this political divide between the parts, that had been danish in medieval and early modern times (Skane and the western coast) and the rest?

Their pre-1645/58 history is at least irrelevant (and it would be strange if it was relevant).
Since the other former Danish/Norwegian areas have quite different voting patterns: Blekinge is an SAP stronghold and the island of Gotland and Jemtland/Herjedalen (in the north) don't fit the Scania or West Coast pattern.

Why Scania, Halland and Bohuslen votes somewhat similar I dunno, but its all densely populated by Swedish standards.

[Gustaf]

How do you mean? The obvious answer is that Skåne and Halland are pretty rich areas, just like Stockholm, and thus very predictably vote more right-wing. Not sure if you want an explanation of why they are richer. Skåne has a lot of immigrants which may contribute to SD support.

(But I'll grant that I find it a bit mysterious that Skåne hates foreigners so much. Stockholm also has a lot of immigrants but very low SD support)

[Gustaf]

Press conference today, Löfven announces that he's forming a government with MP but not much in the way of new information. Beyond his statement of basically selling out anything that could be called left and rule like a right-winger

[politicus]

Press conference today, Löfven announces that he's forming a government with MP but not much in the way of new information. Beyond his statement of basically selling out anything that could be called left and rule like a right-winger

Ah, a Social Democratic/progressive centrist-government following bourgeois policies, with a True Leftist party (which they depend on for support) being ignored and isolated. Sounds familiar.
Swedish politics just seems to become progressively more Danish.

Going the HTS route will be costly, though, it allows SD to go on the attack.

How do you mean? The obvious answer is that Skåne and Halland are pretty rich areas, just like Stockholm, and thus very predictably vote more right-wing.

How about Bohuslen? Is it above average as well?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And SDs will probably be at 25% by the next election.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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How about Bohuslen? Is it above average as well?
[/quote]

Yes, Bohuslän basically consists of 1) Evangelical Fishers (Votes KD), 2) Wealthy Gothenburg suburbs, and 3) Upper-crust coastal vacation towns.

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.   

[politicus]

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.  

That's the pragmatic and careful approach - and Löfven is a very pragmatic and careful man, but there is the alternative of promoting your own policy and letting the opposition shoot it down, giving them the responsibility for a political stalemare and then taking things to the voters.
Also, in this scenario SD would be forced to either back the governments socioeconomic policies or be identified as economic right wingers, which would harm them.

So its not as if SAP had no choice, they just chose the way all SocDems in Europe seem to choose these days.

I may be biased by having the Danish experience in my mind, where our SocDems clearly messed up by going down the path of accommodation and "bourgeoisation" (probably not a word in English.. ), but I think SAP made the wrong call on this one. Sometimes its better to fight than to be pragmatic - still I know Swedish voters love pragmatism, so maybe it will work in Sweden.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no point in winning elections if you don't try to form a government afterwards. Particularly when failing to do so could result in a political crisis that you'd be blamed for.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.   

That's the pragmatic and careful approach - and Löfven is a very pragmatic and careful man, but there is the alternative of promoting your own policy and letting the opposition shoot it down, giving them the responsibility for a political stalemare and then taking things to the voters.
Also, in this scenario SD would be forced to either back the governments socioeconomic policies or be identified as economic right wingers, which would harm them.

I don't really think that strategy would work in Sweden, mostly because in difference to Denmark, the Prime Minister is not in control of early elections. He/She can't just jump on the first carriage to the palace and ask the monarch to dissolve parliament when it feels right. Early elections only happen if the government fail to pass their budget, or the Prime Minister is defeated in a Vote of No Confidence, and the Speaker fails to nominate a new Prime Minister.

The opposition is obviously not going to oust a Social Democratic PM if it looks as if the government would gain by it, and it would look too opportunistic if the centre-left ousted themselves by passing a Vote of No Confidence against their own Prime Minister.

So the tactic would require 4 years of stalemate and might not even pay of in the end, as the centre-right is obviously going to try the blame game right back at them. And as you note, Swedish voters tend to like pragmatism (at least in theory, if not so much in practice).

There's no point in winning elections if you don't try to form a government afterwards. Particularly when failing to do so could result in a political crisis that you'd be blamed for.

   

Also this!